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Investing.com -- In a recent note, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts, including Manan Gosalia, downgraded their recommendation on U.S. midcap banks due to rising recession risks, prompted by higher than expected tariffs.
These tariffs are anticipated to affect loan growth, which could, in turn, impact forward earnings per share (EPS) and multiples.
The analysts stated, "Group is cheap, but weaker for longer loan growth and inverted yield curve limit upside catalysts for the group."
They predict that several banks will likely lower their full year 2025 net interest income, fee, and revenue guidance. In response to these concerns, the analysts have reduced price targets by a median of 19% and have cut 2025/2026 estimated EPS by 4% and 8%, respectively.
The analysts outlined two potential scenarios. In the bull case, tariffs are negotiated down, and growth stabilizes. However, in the bear case, a moderate recession occurs.
Specific bank recommendations were also adjusted. East West Bancorp (NASDAQ:EWBC) was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight due to its unique exposure to Asia affiliated clients, which could hamper growth and credit outlook in light of broader and higher than expected tariffs.
Similarly, Comerica (NYSE:CMA) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. This decision was driven by rising macro uncertainty leading to weaker commercial and industrial loan growth, which could put pressure on net interest income and efficiency.
Conversely, Commerce was upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight. The analysts see it as a more defensive play in the current market scenario.
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