Robinhood shares gain on Q2 beat, as user and crypto growth accelerate
Investing.com -- Needham has lowered its rating on Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Hold from Buy, flagging mounting earnings risks, intensifying competition, and an expensive valuation.
The broker’s analysts no longer see a near-term catalyst for the stock and believe it is vulnerable to downside over the next 12 months.
As a result, they cut their Apple estimates based on risks to the company’s near-term top and bottom line growth.
While Apple continues to benefit from a vast installed base and premium brand, Needham’s team sees limited earnings momentum ahead. The analysts now forecast fiscal 2025 earnings of $7.06 per share, down from a prior $7.13 estimate, and expect slower revenue growth compared to peers.
Valuation remains a central concern. Apple is trading at more than 26 times its 2026 earnings, a level that is 50% above its 10-year average and well above the market multiple.
“This multiple is at the high end of its Big Tech peers, despite slower growth,” analyst Laura Martin said in a Wednesday note.
By comparison, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are seen as better positioned to benefit from generative AI and cloud infrastructure scale.
Needham also warns of growing threats to Apple’s core businesses. Slowing smartphone demand, risks to its $20 billion annual search deal with Google, and potential iPhone tariffs could weigh on earnings.
In China, Apple’s revenue is under pressure amid geopolitical tensions, a decline in brand appeal, and growing competition from local brands. Analysts estimate that tariffs alone could reduce Apple’s earnings by $0.80 per share if fully absorbed.
The brokerage also highlighted new form factors from rivals such as Meta’s smart glasses and Jony Ive’s venture with OpenAI as longer-term strategic threats to the iPhone’s dominance.
Based on technicals, Needham estimates that Apple stock has $20-30 per share of downside risk versus $15 per share of upside from current price levels.
Overall, Needham sees limited upside for Apple shares unless an iPhone replacement cycle emerges or the tech behemoth aggressively expands into high-margin advertising.
“Until then, we believe that $170-$180/share is a better entry level.” Apple shares closed at $203.27 on June 3.