Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Investing.com - Guggenheim maintained its Buy rating and $220.00 price target on Nexstar Broadcasting Group (NASDAQ:NXST) stock Tuesday following a model update.
The research firm made modest adjustments to its quarterly forecasts, slightly lowering second-quarter expectations while raising third-quarter estimates. Full-year adjusted EBITDA projections remain essentially unchanged at $1.527 billion compared to $1.526 billion previously, with free cash flow estimates at $846 million versus $845 million prior.
Guggenheim expects second-quarter advertising to decline approximately 4%, similar to first-quarter performance, with distribution revenue also projected to decrease slightly for both the second quarter and full year. The firm’s 2026 outlook remains optimistic, citing the return of political advertising, renewal of 60% of retransmission subscribers, and The CW network tracking toward break-even.
The firm highlighted Nexstar’s robust free cash flow as core to its investment thesis, modeling average annual 2025/2026 free cash flow of $1.011 billion, equating to approximately $32.92 per share and representing a 19% free cash flow yield.
Guggenheim also noted the Federal Communications Commission appears poised to address the 39% national ownership cap, potentially enabling further industry consolidation, with Nexstar positioned to capitalize on broadcast deregulation through free cash flow accretive mergers and acquisitions.
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