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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Nippon Steel’s credit rating to ’BBB’ from ’BBB+’ with a negative outlook, citing the financial burden of its $14.1 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel.
The rating agency removed Nippon Steel from CreditWatch negative, where it had been placed since December 20, 2023, according to a statement released Thursday.
S&P expects Nippon Steel’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio to deteriorate to more than 4x in fiscal 2025, compared with 1.6x in fiscal 2024, as the company plans to finance most of the acquisition through debt issuance.
The Japanese steelmaker has committed to invest approximately $11 billion in U.S. Steel by 2028 as part of a National Security Agreement with the U.S. government, adding further financial pressure.
While Nippon Steel has indicated it is considering a capital increase that would not impair earnings per share, S&P noted that the timing and scale remain unclear and therefore was not factored into the current analysis.
The rating agency projects only gradual recovery in Nippon Steel’s financial metrics, estimating that the debt-to-EBITDA ratio will remain in the upper 3x range for the next one to two years.
S&P also expects Nippon Steel’s EBITDA (excluding U.S. Steel) to decrease by about 20% in fiscal 2025 from over ¥1 trillion in the previous fiscal year, citing weak demand for steel in Japan and internationally, along with the indirect impact of U.S. tariffs.
The acquisition will increase Nippon Steel’s crude steel production by a factor of about 1.3 and provide a foothold in the North American market, potentially offsetting weakness in domestic and Asian markets.
However, S&P believes the company’s competitive position may weaken as it consolidates U.S. Steel’s operations, noting that U.S. Steel primarily produces commodity flat-rolled sheet products that face high pricing competition.
The negative outlook reflects S&P’s view that there is more than a one-in-three chance that recovery in Nippon Steel’s financial ratios will be delayed due to the acquisition burden and ongoing capital expenditure requirements.
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