Asia FX rises; US-Japan trade deal boosts yen, won to 2-week highs
Investing.com -- Oppenheimer has lowered its year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,950 from 7,100, citing elevated market uncertainty and the negative impact of recently announced U.S. trade tariffs. The new target implies about 15% upside from the index’s April 4 close of 5,074.
The firm also cut its 2025 S&P 500 earnings estimate to $265 per share from $275. The lowered target is now based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.5x, compared with the earlier assumption of 25.8x.
John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer, said the move reflects an effort to “right size expectations” after a sharp equity selloff and what they described as a shift in sentiment driven by a “negative pitch book” that assumes worst-case scenarios.
“At current levels the equity market appears oversold in our view with uncertainty at levels investors find hard to embrace,” he wrote.
The downgrade follows a 17.4% slide in the S&P 500 from its February 19 peak, with investors reacting sharply to the scale of the tariff measures unveiled by the Trump administration.
While the strategists expect cooler heads to prevail in future trade negotiations, the scale of the recent declines in equities highlights a need to temper expectations in the near term.
Oppenheimer’s original price target, set in December, had assumed stronger earnings growth and a more supportive policy backdrop. Since then, economic indicators have become more mixed.
ISM surveys point to weakening business conditions, and although job creation remained solid in March, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Corporate management’s guidance has generally turned more cautious, leading to downward revisions in analyst estimates.
Despite the cuts, Oppenheimer remains Overweight U.S. equities and views the long-term outlook as constructive, particularly if progress is made on fiscal issues and tariffs.
“Should cooler heads prevail in negotiations on trade effectively addressing the need to cut deficit spending and solutions to manage the reduction of the national debt – we, along with other market participants, may well have to consider adjusting market price targets higher once again,” Stoltzfus said.
He points out that U.S. large-cap companies with substantial international operations can provide indirect exposure to global markets, and a weaker dollar may enhance their overseas earnings.