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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock markets and oil markets bounce after brutal flooring

Published 10/03/2020, 11:23
Updated 10/03/2020, 11:27
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock markets and oil markets bounce after brutal flooring
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* S&P 500 futures rally more than 4%, Treasury yields up

sharply

* European shares jump 3%-4%, Asia ended higher

* Oil prices bounce 5% after huge drop; gold prices fall 1%

* Markets cling to hope of monetary, fiscal stimulus

By Marc Jones

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - Oil and equity markets staged

solid rebounds on Tuesday after the previous day's pummelling,

with signs of co-ordinated action by the world's biggest

economies to cushion the economic impact of coronavirus helping

pull investors out of panic mode.

Most benchmark government bond yields also rose from record

lows hit the previous day, as hopes for stimulus to support

global growth in the face of epidemic boosted risk sentiment.

European stocks wasted little time in recouping 3% of the 7%

they had slumped on Monday .EU , one of their worst days on

record. The oil and gas and mining sectors led gains as oil

LCOc1 regained its footing after plunging 25% following the

breakdown of a crucial global oil pact. O/R

Yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury debt more than

doubled to 0.70% and those on German Bunds jumped around 20

basis points as investors pared some safe-haven holdings.

GVD/EUR

Supporting the mood was a pledge from U.S. President Donald

Trump on Monday to take "major" steps to protect the economy and

float the idea of a payroll tax cut with congressional

Republicans. Japan said it would spend another 430.8 billion yen ($4.1

billion) to ease the effects of the coronavirus outbreak and

Italy's deputy economy minister announced that mortgage payments

would be suspended as the country deals with the second highest

number of cases outside China.

Some of the biggest global investment banks, including JP

Morgan, Citi and Barclays, now expect the Federal Reserve to cut

U.S. interest rates to zero in the coming months as part of a

mass global move to provide some ballast and liquidity to the

financial system.

"As of today, we believe that markets have gone from being

overly complacent to overly pessimistic," the chief investment

officers of Europe's largest asset manager Amundi AMUN.PA

wrote in a note to clients.

"Our central case, instead, is one of a temporary setback,

although more prolonged compared to what we were expecting a

month ago, followed by a recovery," they added.

Oil suffered its sharpest drop since the 1991 Gulf war and

global stocks plunged on Monday after Saudi Arabia launched a

crude price war with Russia, further rattling investors already

anxious about the spread of coronavirus.

U.S. markets were expected to follow the European and Asian

lead, with major stock futures trading up around 4%. ESc1 .N

Japan's Nikkei .N225 had ended the day up 0.85%, after

earlier touching its lowest level since April 2017. .T

Australia's index .AXJO closed up 3.1% as some went

hunting for bargains in beaten down stocks.

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC traded

2.1% higher as new domestic coronavirus cases tumbled and

President Xi Jinping's visit to the epicentre of the epidemic

lifted sentiment.

The news continued to be negative elsewhere, however, with

Italy ordering its citizens not to move around other than for

work and emergencies and banning all public gatherings.

"Although uncertainty is very high, we now expect similar

restrictions will be put in place across Europe in the coming

weeks," warned economists at JPMorgan.

"We are now expecting a rolling H1 2020 global growth

contraction and a powerful global disinflationary wave to take

hold," they added. "We expect the Fed to cut to zero at or

before its March 18 meeting."

ONUS ON CENTRAL BANKS

Oil rallied around 5% to claw back some of its massive

losses from Monday, offering hope that markets had found a floor

despite still-fragile sentiment.

Benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 bounced by $2 to

$36.40 a barrel by 0930 GMT, paring back earlier gains that saw

prices touch a session-high of $37.38 a barrel.

Gold prices fell 1%, retreating from the last session's jump

above the key $1,700 level, as safe-haven demand waned a little

amid speculation about global stimulus measures. GOL/

"In times of turmoil, nothing is more important in restoring

confidence than the government appearing calm and in control of

the situation, (however) tenuous that control may be," Jeffrey

Halley, senior market analyst at broker OANDA, said in a note.

Such has been the conflagration of market wealth that

analysts assumed policymakers would have to react aggressively

to prevent an economic crisis.

The U.S. Fed on Monday sharply stepped up the size of its

fund injections into markets to head off stress.

Having delivered an emergency rate cut only last week,

investors are fully pricing an easing of at least 75 basis

points at the next Fed meeting on March 18, while a cut to near

zero was now seen as likely by April. 0#FF:

Britain's finance minister is due to deliver his annual

budget on Wednesday and there is much talk of coordinated

stimulus with the Bank of England. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and will be

under intense pressure to act, even though euro zone rates are

already deeply negative. "Italy's decision to quarantine the whole country will

affect 15% of Europe's GDP, putting the ECB at the forefront of

efforts to cushion the escalating economic deterioration," said

Brian Martin, a senior international economist at ANZ.

Bonds had charged ahead of the central banks to essentially

price in a global recession of unknown length.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR dipped to as

little as 0.318% on Monday -- a level unthinkable just a week

ago -- but rose back to be last at 0.6818% on Tuesday amid the

stimulus chatter.

That in turn helped the dollar recoup some of its recent

hefty losses to reach 104.70 yen JPY= , edging away from

Monday's three-year trough around 101.17.

The euro eased back to $1.1350 EUR= , after climbing 1.4%

on Monday to its highest in over 13 months at $1.1492. /FRX

Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA

Plunging oil, coronavirus stoke credit concerns https://tmsnrt.rs/2TBKldj

The U.S. dollar and 10-Year U.S real yields https://tmsnrt.rs/32WoiRq

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