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Investing.com -- Piper Sandler upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) to Overweight from Neutral, saying the stock’s steep fall this year has already priced in weaker sales growth.
The broker said Chipotle shares have dropped about 31% in 2025, reflecting investor concerns that the chain may not sustain mid-single-digit same-store sales gains.
Piper Sandler expects sales to rise about 3% annually over the next two years, which it said would still leave room for the stock to gain about 20% from current levels.
While the firm sees risks to revenue in the second half of this year, its earnings estimates are already below market forecasts.
Piper Sandler said Chipotle does not need to achieve both faster sales growth and wider profit margins to deliver solid returns for shareholders.
The broker compared Chipotle with Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH), noting differences in menu pricing, transaction growth and profit margins over the past six years. It said Chipotle could likely improve on one key measure but not both at once.
Piper Sandler cut its price target to $50 from $53, implying a valuation of about 24 to 25 times its 2026 earnings forecast, which is below consensus. It said the stock could trade around $56 over the next 12 to 18 months if earnings grow as projected.
“We particularly like the Risk-Reward because we can get to ~20% upside in a Base Case that revolves around comping +3.0% for the next two years,” analyst at Piper said.