Stock market today: Stocks fall as investors rotate out of tech into Jackson Hole
Investing.com -- Private credit markets are showing signs of deterioration in credit quality even as fundraising gains momentum, according to a new UBS report analyzing current market conditions.
The report identifies declining credit quality with US middle market CLO default rates easing to 4% in Q2, while US leveraged loan defaults have started rising incrementally to 2.6% through July after bottoming at 2.3% in mid-Q2.
Business development companies (BDCs) have seen payment-in-kind income increase notably in Q2, up 40 basis points to 6.0%, reaching the highest level since 2020, as companies defer cash interest payments to preserve liquidity.
Fundamental data on middle market CLO portfolio companies reveals increasing leverage, with overall median leverage up 0.2x to 6.6x. The most highly leveraged sectors include software at 7.8x and healthcare at 7.4x, while interest coverage ratios declined about 0.1x across sectors.
Private credit fundraising has strengthened heading into 2025, with almost $70 billion raised in the first quarter alone. This trend could accelerate following a recent Executive Order to expand access to alternative assets in 401(k) plans, potentially tapping into a portion of the $12.3 trillion in total defined contribution assets.
In terms of market share, private credit captured 44% of overall issuance in Q2, up from 30% in Q1, and 48% of sponsor direct lending, up from 32% in Q1. BDCs report an active start to Q3 and expect stronger activity through Q4 and early 2025.
The report highlights that private credit is increasingly funding AI and data center capital expenditures, with tech sector exposure in BDCs nearly doubling from $80 billion to $150 billion over the past year.
Private debt market exposure to technology increased by approximately $100 billion to $450 billion during the same period.
In Q3, private credit funds have committed to several high-profile deals, including $29 billion in financing for Meta’s AI-focused data center, demonstrating the sector’s growing role in funding technological innovation.
UBS cautions that while client sentiment has shifted toward a more positive outlook, the combination of slowing growth and rising unemployment will likely lead to continued stress and higher losses, though they expect this correction to be relatively short-lived.
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