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Investing.com -- Shares of The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) fell 3.7% after the insurer reported its February 2025 results, which showed significant gains in premiums and net income but also revealed a substantial loss on securities. Despite the positive growth in net premiums written, which increased 17% to $6,684 million, and net premiums earned, up 18% to $6,036 million, the company experienced a total pretax net realized loss on securities of $110 million, a stark contrast to the $80 million gain from the same period last year. The combined ratio improved by 4.2 points to 82.6%.
Analysts had mixed reactions to Progressive’s February performance. Michael Phillips of Oppenheimer highlighted the company’s better-than-expected core loss ratio and strong growth in policies-in-force, particularly in the Personal Auto segment. He noted the absence of catastrophe losses and reserve releases that aided the results. KBW analyst Meyer Shields pointed out that the EPS outperformance could boost shares, but tempered expectations due to the deceleration in personal auto PIF growth. CFRA analyst Catherine Seifert maintained a Buy opinion on Progressive shares, raising the operating EPS estimate for 2026 and maintaining a target of $290.
Seifert’s analysis emphasized the company’s strong underwriting results and higher premiums, which led to a Q4 operating EPS significantly above estimates. She also raised concerns about potential wildfire claims that Progressive might face as a top insurer in California, which could impact the 2025 EPS estimate. Despite these uncertainties, Seifert believes Progressive’s consistent growth and profitability justify its premium valuation compared to peers.
The company’s February results showed a 26% increase in net income to $928 million, with earnings per share available to common shareholders rising 28% to $1.58. Year-over-year, Progressive demonstrated robust growth in several key areas, yet the stock’s decline reflects investor concerns over the reported losses on securities and the potential impact of future claims.
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