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RBC took note of a significant drop in seaborne thermal coal prices to the lowest levels seen since mid-2021. The benchmark Newcastle thermal coal price now stands at $105 per tonne, a steep decline from the $149 per tonne observed on October 24. This decrease comes despite robust import demand from China and persistently high gas prices in Europe and Japan.
The primary factor driving the bearish sentiment in the coal market has been a substantial increase in inventories. Both China and India have experienced record levels of domestic coal supply.
RBC analysts, however, anticipate a recovery in coal prices. They note that coal prices are currently positioned at around the 80th percentile of the global cost curve, indicating that prices are higher than the production costs for a majority of global coal miners.
RBC expects that coal supply will swiftly moderate due to the limited capital available to coal mining companies. Additionally, they predict that the demand for coal will rise as it remains significantly cheaper to use compared to burning gas at current spot prices.
Looking ahead, RBC forecasts a rebound in coal prices to $135 per tonne in the second quarter of 2025. Based on this projection, RBC estimates that Glencore (OTC:GLNCY), a multinational commodity trading and mining company, would generate 12% of its EBITDA from thermal coal at spot prices.
Should prices reach RBC's base case, Glencore's EBITDA contribution from thermal coal could increase to 20%.
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