Recordati shares rise after Jefferies upgrade to “buy” on growth prospects

Published 11/08/2025, 10:54

Investing.com -- Recordati ’s (BIT:RECI) stock rose more than 2% on Monday after Jefferies upgraded the company to “buy” from “hold,” and lifted its price target to €61.50 from €55, citing stronger growth prospects in rare disease treatments and benefits from recent acquisitions.

The new target implies a 22% potential upside from the previous close of €50.25

The upgrade comes as Jefferies’ analysis found that Recordati’s current share price implies a 2024-2027 revenue compound annual growth rate of between -0.4% and 2%, far below the company’s own guidance of 8.6% to 11%. 

Recordati projects 2027 revenue of €3-€3.2 billion, compared with €2.34 billion in 2024, alongside an EBITDA margin of more than 38%.

The firm expects rare disease drugs, particularly Enjaymo and Isturisa, to lead growth. Enjaymo, acquired from Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) in 2024 for cold agglutinin disease, is on track to meet a 2025 sales target of more than €150 million with quarter-on-quarter growth of just 5%. 

Jefferies estimates its global peak sales at €450 million, above Recordati’s €250-€300 million target. Isturisa, following a favorable U.S. label expansion, has surpassed 1,000 net active patients in the country and could reach peak sales of €550 million.

Mergers and acquisitions remain a core part of the growth plan. Jefferies estimates that Recordati needs to invest about €450 million annually to achieve its 2030 goal of more than doubling 2024 revenue to over €4.68 billion.

The recent Vazkepa licensing deal with Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) is expected to reduce that requirement and contribute €8 million to 2025 revenue, with potential to exceed €100 million by 2030.

Recordati’s business mix offers resilience to U.S. policy risks, with only 17% of 2024 sales from the U.S., compared with roughly 40% for peers. 

Specialty and primary care products, which represent about two-thirds of revenue, have no U.S. exposure, while rare diseases are largely commercial, limiting Medicare and Medicaid risk.

Jefferies’ sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns a 16x multiple to rare diseases and a 12x multiple to specialty and primary care, producing the new €61.50 target price. 

The brokerage said longer-term upside could exceed €70 per share if the company successfully executes its acquisition strategy and the market applies a higher premium to the business.

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