Robinhood shares gain on Q2 beat, as user and crypto growth accelerate
Investing.com - Retail investors have been purchasing equities at "full speed," masking caution among institutional stock buyers, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).
In a note, the bank said that the volume of retail transactions stands at historical highs in the United States, led by "unprofitable" tech stocks and "crowded shorts."
Data from Bloomberg, LSEG and Barclays gauging investors’ fear versus greed has edged closer into the latter territory, although separate figures suggested that bullish sentiment among retail traders has yet to reach its maximum.
"On a more medium term basis, equity buying among households, especially in the U.S., has remained strong over the last few quarters albeit still slightly below 2021 highs," the Barclays analysts said. "As a result, equity allocation within household balance sheets remains close to the highs."
But, despite stock markets on Wall Street recently touching fresh peaks thanks in part to the passage of a sweeping U.S. fiscal policy bill earlier this month and easing tariff tensions, "institutional buying has been more measured," the analysts flagged.
CFTC futures positioning on equities among asset managers has stabilized, but has yet to reach its all-time peak, while a survey of active manager stock exposure "points to above average ownership within equities," although "not fully extended," the analysts said.
Against this backdrop, inflows into equities are lagging, even as stocks continue to outperform lower-risk bonds, they added.
Yet support from share buybacks is set to resume soon, they noted, with more than half of announced programs still to be executed.
"Overall, absent a growth shock, and mindful of seasonal risks, we see positioning as likely helping stocks grind higher in the second half," the analysts argued.
They listed the key "pain trades" -- where a majority of market participants have positioned themselves in a particular direction, only to see that strategy take an unexpected turn -- as "equities up, dollar up, Big Tech down, European cyclicals and exporters up, [and] EU banks down."