Rio Tinto shares rise as Q2 copper, aluminum offset iron ore miss

Published 16/07/2025, 00:42
Updated 16/07/2025, 09:00
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Investing.com -- Shares of Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) (LON:RIO) were up over 2% on Wednesday after the metals and mining company posted strong copper and aluminum production in the second quarter, which helped offset a miss in iron ore shipments.

Iron ore shipments for the quarter ended June 30 rose 13% sequentially to 79.9 million tonnes, recovering from cyclone-related disruptions in Q1. 

However, shipments fell 1% from the prior year and missed Jefferies’ estimate of 81.6 million tonnes and the consensus forecast of 81.9 million tonnes. 

Jefferies noted that while production improved, ongoing port maintenance constrained shipments. 

Pilbara production rose 5% year-on-year to 83.7 million tonnes, reaching the highest second-quarter output since 2018.

Despite the miss, Rio maintained its full-year shipment guidance of 323–338 million tonnes but said it expects volumes to track toward the lower end of the range. 

Realized prices for Pilbara iron ore fell to $82.5 per wet metric tonne in the first half, down from $97.3/wmt in 1H24, and below the 1H25 benchmark average of $101/dmt. Unit cost guidance remained unchanged at $23–24.50/wmt.

Copper output climbed 15% year-on-year to 229,000 tonnes, led by improved grades and recovery at the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. 

Jefferies called the copper segment “a highlight in 2Q,” with volumes exceeding expectations. 

Full-year guidance was reaffirmed at 780–850 kilotonnes, with expectations for production at the higher end and unit costs at the lower end of the $1.30–1.50/lb range.

Aluminum production was flat year-on-year at 842,000 tonnes, in line with Jefferies’ estimates. 

Bauxite output rose 6% year-on-year, driven by strong results at the Amrun and Gove sites. Alumina (OTC:AWCMY) production was up 8%. 

The miner now expects bauxite volumes at the higher end of its guidance range, while guidance for alumina and aluminum remains unchanged.

Jefferies said the production report’s positives offset the negatives, with strength in copper and bauxite helping to balance the iron ore shortfall. 

The brokerage maintained its “hold” rating on Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), citing concerns over its lithium strategy despite removing some uncertainty with the appointment of a new CEO.

On Tuesday, Rio Tinto named Simon Trott, current head of the iron ore division, as its next chief executive officer. Trott will succeed Jakob Stausholm, who announced his resignation in May. The leadership transition is scheduled for August 25.

Simandou, Rio’s high-profile iron ore project in Guinea, was also cited as progressing ahead of schedule, with first shipments now expected in November.

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