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Investing.com -- Rothschild & Co took diverging views across three high-profile crypto-linked stocks, upgrading Coinbase to Buy while starting Circle at Neutral and reiterating a Sell on Robinhood, arguing that investors should favour platform scale and diversification over pure retail trading exposure.
The broker said Coinbase’s stock still trades in line with Bitcoin despite having diversified meaningfully beyond simple trading commissions.
Retail transaction fees, once about 90% of revenue, are expected to fall to around 50% next year, replaced by faster growth in institutional trading, derivatives and subscription-based services such as stablecoin income and custody.
While Rothschild still expects fee compression over time, it sees rising volumes and stronger institutional adoption offsetting that.
The bank also pointed to growing revenue from USDC, the Circle-issued stablecoin for which Coinbase receives a large distribution share and new initiatives such as its Layer-2 network Base and crypto-as-a-service products. It lifted its rating to Buy with a $417 price target.
Whereas Rothschild initiated coverage of Circle at Neutral, noting that while USDC dominates the stablecoin market with a $73 billion supply, the company relies heavily on interest income from reserve assets.
More than 60% of that income is paid out to distribution partners, chiefly Coinbase, to drive adoption, a ratio the bank expects to remain above 55% through 2028.
The potential addressable market for stablecoins is vast, Rothschild said, but competition, regulatory constraints and high valuation mean upside will take time to materialise.
Robinhood remained its least preferred name. Despite improved trading activity and a broader crypto product set, Rothschild warned that its crypto economics are cyclical, dependent on price-insensitive traders and likely to face fee pressure as the market matures.
With the stock “priced for perfection”, it kept a Sell rating and $68 target.