Bernstein: Safran’s targets too conservative, upgrades to "outperform"

Published 21/08/2025, 09:36
Updated 21/08/2025, 09:44
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Bernstein has raised its rating on Safran SA (EPA:SAF) to “outperform” from “market perform” and lifted its price target to €370 from €320, citing stronger-than-expected growth in the company’s aftermarket business, in a note dated Thursday.

The new target reflects a potential upside of 28% from the August 20 closing price of €289.20.

The brokerage pointed to sustained demand for maintenance of the CFM56 engine, Safran’s largest program, which they expect will drive elevated shop visits and spare parts sales through 2030. 

“We believe shop visits could be +35% higher than Safran’s forecast in 2030,” the analysts said. The brokerage said its 2028 propulsion earnings forecast is 9% above consensus, supported by aftermarket momentum.

Safran’s new-generation LEAP engine is also expected to contribute more meaningfully to earnings in the coming years, with profitability in the aftermarket segment projected to reach group levels by the end of the decade.

Additional growth potential is seen in the defense business, which accounts for about 20% of sales, and in the recovery of the interiors division, though Bernstein said it has not yet factored these into its estimates.

Financially, revenues are projected to rise from €27.32 billion in 2024 to €34.71 billion in 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 12.7%. 

EBIT is expected to grow from €4.12 billion in 2024 to €6.09 billion in 2026, with free cash flow increasing from €3.19 billion to €4.88 billion over the same period.

The analysts also highlighted an improvement in valuation, “we have preferred GE, as a pure play on the engine business. But when Rolls-Royce (OTC:RYCEY) (+88%), GE (+61%) and Howmet (+58%) all have performed tremendously, with aftermarket growth a major driver, Safran’s lag has led to a more attractive valuation,” the brokerage said.

Bernstein said the main catalyst for further earnings revisions would likely be an upgrade to Safran’s medium-term targets, with management already signaling a review could come alongside the 2025 results.

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