Scotiabank lifts gold price forecast and upgrades Newmont, Barrick

Published 23/10/2025, 15:58
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Scotiabank sees gold and silver price to rise further amid persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainty and continued central bank buying, which it said should benefit gold miners over streamers.

The bank lifted its gold forecasts to $3450 an ounce for 2025 and $3800 for 2026, up from $3250 and $3200 previously.

Long-term estimates, from 2029 onward, rose to about $2600 from $2300. Silver forecasts were also increased, with 2025 now seen at $38.50 an ounce, up from $34.50.

Scotiabank upgraded Newmont, Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform, saying their higher costs make them more sensitive to rising prices.

Analysts downgraded Triple Flag Precious Metals and Osisko Gold Royalties to Sector Perform on valuation and lower leverage to higher prices.

Analysts said they prefer operators over streaming companies given stronger margin expansion potential and lower valuations.

Top picks include Agnico Eagle Mines, Kinross, Newmont, Barrick and AngloGold among producers, and Wheaton Precious Metals and Royal Gold among streamers.

Analyst said equities in the sector still offer value, trading at a roughly 25% discount to bullion with free cash flow yields of about 6% based on 2026 estimates. Scotiabank’s model places the fair value of gold near $2,750 an ounce, implying current prices are around 30% above equilibrium levels due to lingering concerns over global growth, debt and tariffs.

It added that gold could climb further if investor demand strengthens, with past peaks showing premiums as high as 40% above fair value.

The bank’s long-term price view has factored higher all-in costs, taxes and capital requirements across the industry.

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