S&P 500 slips as Fed meeting kicks off
Investing.com - Buybacks by S&P 500 companies have stalled after touching a record pace in the first half of the year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
In a note to clients, the bank said share repurchases in the benchmark index totalled nearly $550 billion in the opening six months of 2025. However, buybacks were flat versus a year earlier in the second quarter across the S&P 500, the so-called "Magnificent 7" group of mega-cap tech stocks and the other 493 firms which constitute the average.
The S&P 500’s net buyback yield, a gauge of market value returned to shareholders through buybacks, also declined to 2%, the lowest mark in two decades outside of recessions, the Goldman analysts said. Meanwhile, the proportion of S&P 500 companies reducing share counts at an annual rate of 3% or more has dropped from about a third of the index a decade ago to roughly 20%.
Such a decline in the impact of buybacks is one way that a recent jump in equity valuations has had a "negative reflexive impact" on stock market fundamentals, the analysts added.
Still, they anticipate that S&P 500 buybacks -- fueled in part by solid earnings growth and a boost to cash flows from recently-passed U.S. fiscal legislation -- will increase by 12% next year to $1.2 trillion, saying this "should stabilize the buyback yield" near its current level.
"But elevated interest rates and surging capex spending will constrain buyback growth unless equity valuations unexpectedly decline or artificial intelligence investment slows sharply," the analysts flagged.
They added that, for investors, a decrease in the buyback yield could lead to "less earnings per share accretion and slower EPS growth."
"Weakening buybacks also indicate less share price support from corporate demand, including the downside cushion buybacks often provide during drawdowns," the analysts said.