Bill Gross warns on gold momentum as regional bank stocks tumble
Investing.com -- The S&P 500 is trading at historically elevated levels, but Bank of America argues that these valuations could prove more durable than many expect.
The index screens expensive on 19 out of 20 metrics the bank tracks, with measures such as Market Cap to GDP, Price to Book, Price to Operating Cash Flow, and Enterprise Value to Sales all hitting record highs.
Buying stocks at these multiples feels bad, but there are good ways (sales/EPS/GDP booms) and bad ways (price declines) to resolve this seemingly untenable situation,” strategists led by Savita Subramanian said in a note.
“Or perhaps this situation is not untenable,” they added, suggesting that today’s market structure warrants a fresh lens rather than anchoring to past averages.
The case for resilience stems from the index’s evolution. Companies in the S&P 500 now carry lower debt burdens than in past decades, with more than 80% of obligations fixed and long-term.
Earnings volatility has also declined as high-quality names make up over 60% of the benchmark, up from less than half in the 2000s.
Meanwhile, shifts toward asset-light and labor-light models have translated into greater margin stability and visibility.
“Safety and predictability deserve a premium,” the strategists said, pointing to efficiency gains from automation and potential boosts ahead from artificial intelligence and deregulation.
While globalization once powered margins through lower costs abroad, BofA notes that this came with geopolitical risks and diminishing returns.
Today, companies are reshoring and focusing on efficiency to combat inflation, making growth less dramatic but more sustainable.
The strategists also argued that unlike in the era of zero rates and quantitative easing, when financial engineering clouded the outlook, the current higher-rate environment provides room to cut in downturns.
“We would be less sanguine if rising rates/inflation from here force a return to yield curve control/asset purchases,” the strategists continued.
Crucially, BofA sees earnings strength as the most likely way valuations normalize. Multiples can compress through falling prices, but they can also ease through rising profits.
With the Federal Reserve cutting and fiscal policy supportive, strategists expect broadening capital expenditures and sticky inflation to lift sales and operating leverage.
“It’s not hard to argue for a boom in EPS and GDP growth,” the team said, calling this outcome a “higher probability “tail” in 2026 than stagflation or recession.”