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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has assigned the United Arab Emirates (UAE) an ’AA/A-1+’ long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook.
The rating agency expects the UAE’s economic growth to remain resilient at about 4% over 2025-2028, driven by strong non-oil sector activity and increasing oil production. Despite lower oil prices and global economic headwinds, S&P forecasts continued fiscal surpluses at both federal and emirate levels.
The UAE’s exceptional government net asset position, estimated to reach 177% of GDP through 2028, provides a significant buffer against oil price fluctuations and regional geopolitical tensions. This includes assets managed by sovereign wealth funds like Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.
S&P projects general government fiscal surpluses averaging 3.2% of GDP through 2028, based on Brent oil prices of $60 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel through 2028. Government debt is expected to remain stable at about 28% of GDP over the next four years.
The rating agency noted that the UAE dirham’s peg to the U.S. dollar limits monetary flexibility, as policy must align with the Federal Reserve regardless of domestic conditions. S&P also highlighted that the local currency bond market remains underdeveloped compared to similarly rated peers.
Oil production is forecast to increase to about 3.5 million barrels per day by 2028, up from slightly less than 3 million in 2024, as OPEC+ quotas are gradually lifted. The Ghasha gas and Ruwais LNG projects are expected to enhance Abu Dhabi’s gas production capacity.
Non-oil growth will be supported by public investment and economic diversification efforts. Major projects include the Saadiyat cultural district and Disney (NYSE:DIS) Park in Abu Dhabi, the Wynn integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, and Dubai’s expansion of Maktoum airport.
The UAE has implemented structural measures to improve its business environment, including a foreign direct investment law allowing full foreign ownership in various sectors and the Golden Visa (NYSE:V) Program to retain skilled professionals.
S&P estimates UAE GDP per capita at $47,000 in 2025, relatively high by global standards, though levels vary across emirates. Population growth averaged 6.6% over 2022-2023 due to foreign worker inflows.
The rating agency identified potential downside risks including the Israel-Iran conflict, which could disrupt transportation routes, affect energy prices, reduce tourism, and weaken investment confidence. However, S&P’s base case assumes the conflict will not materially impact the UAE’s economy.
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