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Investing.com -- JPMorgan has added SSE (LON:SSE) to its Analyst Focus List, replacing National Grid (LON:NG), following the release of Ofgem’s Draft Determinations (DD) for RIIO-ET3, the regulatory period for electricity transmission starting from April 1, 2026.
"We believe that the regulator’s message on investability has been consistent over the past two years, and the Draft Determination proved their messaging to be credible, in our view," the bank’s analysts said, reiterating an Overweight rating on SSE shares.
The stock climbed 1% in London trading Thursday.
They updated their model to reflect the latest regulatory inputs, with refreshed estimates “above the top end of SSE’s full-year 2027 (FY27) guidance and 12% above the Bloomberg consensus median.”
While SSE had sought more generous terms on fast money and regulatory asset lives, JPMorgan noted stronger-than-expected outcomes elsewhere.
“The allowed return on equity came in 10bps higher than Ofgem provided consensus, and we saw a better outcome on capitalisation ratios and return on debt than we were expecting.”
The bank believes valuation remains attractive. “At <9x our refreshed FY27E earnings, we believe investors underappreciate SSE’s earnings growth potential,” it said, noting that balance sheet concerns “are overdone.”
The price target remains at 2,300p, implying 27% upside.
For National Grid, JPMorgan also updated estimates based on the same Draft Determination and maintained its Overweight rating.
The bank projects an earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% for FY25–FY29, compared to guidance of 6–8%, “despite the ~3% headwind from marking the USD to market.”
Its price target on National Grid remains unchanged at 1,225p, implying 19% upside. However, while retaining a constructive view on U.K. Electricity Networks, the analysts “see more upside to peer SSE, which replaces National Grid on our Analyst Focus List,” they wrote.