Deutsche Bank analysts warn that stock markets could be susceptible to negative news in the near term despite recent investor positioning suggesting a potential pause.
In a recent note, Deutsche Bank highlights their expectation of a "sideways market" due to a combination of factors: limited room for further growth in investor positioning, a potential decline in inflows as risk appetite weakens, and a temporary decrease in stock buybacks.
However, the analysts emphasize that this sideways trend may not be sustainable. They warn of increased vulnerability to negative shocks due to potential geopolitical and domestic political events.
The upcoming US elections, French elections, and the potential sentencing of Donald Trump are all cited as examples of catalysts for market volatility.
The note details recent investor activity, pointing to a slight decrease in overall equity positioning. Deutsche Bank also observes a slowdown in inflows to equity funds, with the US market experiencing outflows for the first time in ten weeks.
While bond funds saw increased inflows this week, the report highlights a potential shift in sentiment. Investor sentiment, as measured by a bull-bear spread, has become "less bullish" with a rise in bearish responses.