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Investing.com -- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is on track to beat market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, with stronger sales in both the U.S. and China driving volumes higher, according to RBC Capital Markets.
The broker forecasts 456,000 deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus estimates of 440,000 from Visible Alpha and 448,000 from FactSet.
The improvement follows 384,000 deliveries in Q2 and comes as U.S. demand was likely boosted by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) consumer credit expiring at the end of September. That said, RBC added that demand for new affordable models slated for Q4 may have delayed some purchases in Q3.
RBC’s tracking model, which draws on registration data across major markets, points to U.S. deliveries rising 22.5% quarter-on-quarter and China up nearly 30%.
“Primary methodology based on registrations points to ~456k,” analyst Tom Narayan said in a note.
China remains a major swing factor, with RBC estimating a 29.4% jump in Q3 deliveries from Q2. The firm highlighted that July volumes rose 41.4% from April, and August was 48.1% higher than May.
It also noted that regulatory changes in China have pressured local OEMs such as BYD (HK:1211) while boosting Tesla’s position.
“The pledge from numerous auto companies in China to deliver payments to suppliers within 60 days and the Chinese government issuing an amendment to its price law have adversely impacted Chinese OEMs such as BYD, and may have increased Tesla’s numbers in the quarter,” Narayan said.
RBC expects Tesla’s September deliveries in China to be 12% stronger than June.
In Europe, RBC expects a more modest 8.1% sequential rise in deliveries despite ongoing headwinds from EU tariffs on Chinese exports.
U.S. volumes are forecast at 168,632, reflecting strong momentum in the closing weeks of the quarter.
Deliveries from other regions should add a further 60,000, RBC’s note shows.