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Investing.com -- Deep Water Management’s Managing Partner, Gene Munster, has released his projections for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s delivery numbers for the year 2025. The predictions suggest that the Street will adjust its full-year estimates as soon as Tesla’s March deliveries are announced.
Munster believes that the delivery expectations for March have declined to a point where the report due next Wednesday will align with the whisper number. Despite the in-print estimate calling for 378,000 deliveries, recent sell-side revisions have lowered this figure to 359,000. Munster’s sense is that the whisper number now lies between 350,000 and 360,000. If the deliveries hit 355,000, this would represent an 8% year-on-year decrease.
Looking ahead to June, Munster predicts that estimates will need to be revised downwards. The Street is currently predicting 425,000 deliveries, a 4% year-on-year decrease. However, Munster expects the estimates will settle at a 10% year-on-year decrease, or 400,000 deliveries. This aligns with the regular seasonality observed over the past two years, which typically saw a 12.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in deliveries in June.
For the full year 2025, Munster suggests that the delivery numbers will be reset as soon as Wednesday’s figures are released. The Street is currently expecting a 3% year-on-year growth. However, Munster predicts that the full-year deliveries will be down about 5% year-on-year, totaling around 1.7 million.
In summary, Munster’s projections imply a delivery cadence for the year 2025 that includes downward revisions on Tesla deliveries for both the March and June quarters, followed by a full-year decrease compared to the previous year.
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