BillionToOne wins bullish backing, but Jefferies and Wells Fargo urge caution
Investing.com -- Bank of America (BofA) expects gold prices to push sharply higher over the next year, calling for the metal to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 as many of the macro forces that lifted prices remain in place.
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The bank notes that “if gold matched the 2000s bull cycle, $7,000/oz could be upside,” while its investment strategist Michael Hartnett sees gold as a “top trade for 2026” with a projected 10% return.
Against that backdrop, BofA reviewed which North American miners would benefit most from further gains.
The analysis shows that Kinross and SSR Mining offer the greatest combined “leverage," with both EBITDA and net asset value (NAV) showing outsized sensitivity to a 10% rise in gold prices.
SSR Mining, Iamgold, Kinross and Centerra exhibit the highest EBITDA beta, all around 14%, according to BofA’s modelling.
On a NAV basis, B2Gold, Kinross, SSR Mining and Eldorado Gold stand out “as having the highest gold price leverage,” BofA analyst Lawson Winder said in a note.
Producers generally display more torque than royalty and streaming companies, though the latter provide better long-term returns due to “higher margins, insulation from cost inflation, and much greater asset diversification,” Winder added.
He also highlights that operational setbacks and construction risks have weighed on many producers in recent years, making royalty names structurally more stable.
Eldorado Gold received particular attention following its new reserve update. The company lifted total proven and probable gold reserves by 5% year-on-year to 12.5 million ounces, more than offsetting depletion.
Kisladag and the Lamaque Complex drove the gains, helped by a higher reserve gold-price assumption.
Still, BofA maintains an Underperform rating on the stock due to the “continued risks around the build-out and commissioning of the Skouries project.”
The bank updated several models alongside its sensitivity work, lifting its price objective on Eldorado Gold to $29 from $28 and on Pan American Silver to $51 from $46 following the integration of the Juanicipio joint venture.
The broader sector, meanwhile, continues to trade near the upper half of its historical valuation range, at 1.68 times NAV for North American names.