Trump administration authorizes CIA for covert action in Venezuela - Bloomberg
Investing.com -- Bank of America analysts said in a note Wednesday that Brazil stands out as one of the strongest rate-cut stories in emerging markets, with LatAm equities positioned to benefit from easing that is not yet fully priced in.
“Several sectors in Brazil and Mexico show a higher correlation to short-term (ST) rates compared to other EM and are trading at more than 20% discount vs historicals,” BofA said, highlighting the potential upside for local equities.
The bank expects substantial policy easing in LatAm over the next year. “We expect Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to cut their policy rates significantly (-275bps, -200bps and -125bps in the next 12m, respectively) and we are more dovish than consensus and the market in those countries,” BofA wrote.
Global central bank easing, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve, is said to provide additional support for the region’s rate cuts.
BofA noted that Brazil’s equity market is particularly sensitive to changes in short-term rates.
“LatAm is the most sensitive region overall to a change in nominal rates. Some sectors in Brazil and Mexico stand out in EM as among the highest correlations to ST rates,” the analysts said. This sensitivity underpins the bank’s constructive stance on Brazilian equities.
Sector composition also plays a role. BofA observed that “Brazil, Saudi Arabia and S. Africa are more heavily tilted toward commodities, and financials,” which contrasts with countries such as China and South Korea, where technology dominates and rate sensitivity is lower.
The analysts cautioned that long-term rates and geopolitical risks remain key considerations. “Global risks to LatAm are US recession, higher long-term US rates, higher oil prices and escalation of the trade war,” BofA said, while also highlighting domestic fiscal and political risks in Brazil and Mexico.