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Traders must be ready for potentially big market moves amid US election, UBS says

Published 05/11/2024, 12:00
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Investing.com - Investors need to be prepared for possibly "significant" market movements over the next few days as Americans head to the polls to choose the next US president, according to analysts at UBS.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were campaigning furiously across key battleground in the final day before the vote as they tried to secure any last-minute support. In her final rally in the all-important state of Pennsylvania, Harris said America was ready for a "fresh start." Trump, meanwhile, urged his backers to vote in his last event in Michigan, another state with huge election implications.

Trump and Harris are locked in a virtual tie heading into Election Day, particularly in the crucial swing states that will likely heavily impact the outcome of the election.

Traders will be closely monitoring the returns, with the winner's policies set to potentially have a major influence on everything from the oil and gas sector and Big Tech to electric vehicles and financial services.

In a note to clients, analysts at UBS led by Mark Haefele recommended preparing to use the possible outsized market reactions to build stronger portfolios for the long term.

"We see potential opportunities to build positions in equities, China, bonds, and gold, and to diversify US dollar holdings," the analysts said.

They added that US equities are "attractive" and should be supported by "benign growth, lower rates, and structural support from AI, regardless of the election result." Any dips in the market, they argued, could allow investors to bolster their ownership in the technology, utilities and financial sectors.

While the analysts said volatility in stock markets this week is "inevitable," they still do not expect to likeliest election results to alter their 12-month view on US equities. They see the benchmark S&P 500 rising to 6,600 by the end of next year, around a 15% price gain from current levels.

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