Traders shift focus back to Fed cuts as tariff, inflation panic eases

Published 10/04/2025, 13:50
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Market participants are once again expecting four quarter-point reductions in Federal Reserve interest rates by early 2026, following a brief period of uncertainty.

Renewed anticipation among Wall Street investors comes after a lower-than-expected inflation print and a temporary halt in the tariff panic.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% in the twelve months through March, a less significant increase than the 2.8% seen in February.

On a monthly basis, the figure decreased by 0.1%, in contrast to the previous uptick of 0.2%. These numbers fell short of economists' expectations of 2.5% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month.

Traders' expectations for rate cuts had been tempered during the height of the recent turmoil, prior to President Donald Trump's announcement of a pause in tariff increases. However, the lower-than-forecast inflation print is bolstering their case for further cuts by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in March on an annualized basis and declined month-on-month. Analysts note that these figures cover a period before the implementation and subsequent delay of President Trump's sweeping tariffs.

In response to the positive news on inflation, United States 10-Year moved lower on Thursday. Investors also expressed relief following President Trump's decision to enact a 90-day tariff reprieve on most countries, which reversed a sharp sell-off in bonds.

 

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