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Investing.com -- KeyBanc said the final version of the sweeping legislation signed into law by President Trump was less punitive for clean-energy firms than many had feared, preserving critical incentives and giving developers more time to qualify for tax credits.
The Big Beautiful Bill trims several provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act but leaves key programs, such as nuclear production tax credits and clean-energy project credit transferability, largely intact.
The investment tax credit ( ITC (NSE:ITC)) and production tax credit ( PTC (NASDAQ:PTC)) will now phase out starting in 2027, but developers will still benefit from generous safe-harbor rules that allow qualification through the 2030s.
As a result, KeyBanc said the legislation is “fairly neutral” for large-scale solar and wind developers and utilities with robust renewable pipelines, including NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), Array Technologies and Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:XEL).
One of the biggest turnarounds came in residential solar. A last-minute revision to the bill reversed a proposed ban on leasing-based ITC eligibility, a model heavily relied on by Sunrun.
The shift helped shares of Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ:RUN) recover, and KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Sector Weight, citing fading regulatory risk and potential market share gains following a competitor’s recent bankruptcy.
Still, analysts cautioned that Sunrun’s business remains exposed to future policy shifts, which may cap valuation upside.
Sunrun’s vulnerability to regulatory risks has been laid bare, the note said, though near-term conditions now appear more stable.
Credits for hydrogen and certain residential programs are being phased out faster than expected, while changes to advanced manufacturing credits were described as “relatively minor.”
Overall, KeyBanc said the energy sector has weathered a volatile few weeks but now faces a more predictable policy backdrop following the finalization of the bill.