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Investing.com -- Hermes (EPA:HRMS) shares slid around 3% on Thursday after UBS analysts lowered their rating on the luxury fashion house to Neutral from Buy, citing emerging risks to the company’s 2026 earnings and potentially changing equity story.
The move comes a day after Hermes posted a 9% increase in quarterly sales, driven by sustained demand for its handbags, though signs emerged that it is not entirely shielded from the broader luxury market slowdown.
In its note to clients, UBS pointed to softening brand perception among high-income consumers and the impact of Hermes’ growing scale, which may be making the brand more cyclical.
"This, together with risk to 2026 earnings, limits any upside potential, in our view," analysts led by Zuzanna Pusz said in a note.
The bank cut its 2026 constant-currency sales forecast to +8%, below the consensus of +10%, and now sees “limited upside to our estimates in outer years.”
Hermes’ transformation into a mega-brand—with revenue exceeding €15 billion in 2024 and expected to reach ~€16 billion in 2025—has drawn attention to the sustainability of its growth trajectory.
UBS raised concerns that the iconic leather goods division, projected to generate €8 billion in 2026, may be approaching a scale where “the brand potentially [becomes] more ubiquitous and in the long term more cyclical.”
While UBS expects Hermes’ EBIT margin to recover to 40.5% by 2029, it sees near-term downside in 2026. Margin pressure is likely to come from slower like-for-like sales growth, negative hedging impacts of roughly 100 basis points, and more conservative pricing.
Given Hermes produces nearly all of its products in euros, the stronger EUR/USD has increased hedging pressure, UBS said.
"We think that our forecasted +MSD% like-for-like retail sales growth will be only enough to offset cost inflation amid the company’s continued investments," the note states.
Other categories, such as ready-to-wear and perfumes, have also shown weaker trends compared with leather goods, adding to concerns.
UBS lowered its earnings per share estimates by 1% for fiscal year 2025 (FY25), 8% for FY26, and 9% for FY27.
The price target was cut to €2,389 from €2,704, reflecting revised sales and margin assumptions as well as a valuation multiple that now assumes only the five-year historical average premium to the sector, not the previous maximum.