UBS cuts, Redburn upgrades Air France KLM shares; stock up

Published 25/03/2025, 09:56
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Air France KLM SA (EPA:AIRF) is drawing mixed views from Wall Street, as UBS downgraded the stock while Redburn Atlantic issued an upgrade.

The carrier’s shares rose 1.8% in Paris trading as of 08:54 GMT. 

UBS analyst Jarrod Castle cut the Air France KLM rating from Buy to Neutral, despite acknowledging the company’s improved profit outlook.

The downgrade comes after a challenging 2024, where the airline faced several headwinds, including a €160 million cost associated with the Paris Olympics, operational issues at KLM, and a lack of ex-fuel cost control.

However, a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 led to only a slight fall in operating profit to €1.6 billion for the year.

Still, the company’s shares outperformed this year, rising around 16% year-to-date, and Castle believes the improved profit outlook “is now reflected in the share price.”

The fourth quarter of 2024 marked a turnaround for Air France KLM, with operating profits rebounding from a €0.1 billion loss in the same quarter of the previous year to a €0.4 billion profit.

This improvement was driven by a 4.4% increase in unit revenues, which more than compensated for a 4% rise in unit costs due to capacity mix. The airline expects further profit improvements in 2025, projecting an EBIT increase of over €0.3 billion.

Castle has adjusted its forecasts for Air France KLM, lifting its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 98% and 21%, respectively.

The analyst has also trimmed its price target to €11.45, down from €12.05, due to higher net debt levels. The airline’s first-quarter results, expected on April 30, 2025, are expected to be the next catalyst for the stock.

Separately, Redburn Atlantic analyst James Goodall has upgraded Air France KLM from Neutral to Buy and lifted the price target to €15 from €9.5.

Goodall highlighted the airline’s transformation into a more simplified and efficient business, which has been somewhat obscured by the pandemic and other one-off events.

“Air France-KLM is a much-changed business,” he wrote.

Goodall believes the company’s ongoing transition will enable it to control costs effectively while improving unit revenues and margins, leading to better cash generation and a favorable debt-to-equity shift.

He also pointed out that the stock is currently trading at just 1.8x the forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) for fiscal year 2025, which “creates [an] opportunity” for investors.

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