UBS downgrades SocGen to “neutral,” cites valuation after strong rally

Published 09/05/2025, 13:08
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS Global Research downgraded Société Générale (EPA:SOGN) to “neutral,” citing limited upside after a strong rally that has left the stock fully priced in the near term. 

While the French bank delivered better-than-expected first-quarter results, UBS analysts believe further gains will depend on consistent execution and favorable macro conditions.

The bank reported first-quarter pretax profit and pre-provision profit that beat market expectations by 14% and 10%, respectively. 

This was driven by slightly higher income and marginally lower costs. Société Générale also posted a 20 basis point capital beat, with its CET1 ratio reaching 13.4%, prompting expectations of interim dividends and share buybacks.

UBS raised its price target on the stock to €48 from €44, reflecting an increase in peer group valuation multiples. 

However, the analysts noted that with the stock up 68% year-to-date and trading at 6.8 times forward earnings, now in line with BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), the valuation no longer offers a clear margin of safety.

Although the long-term outlook remains intact, including expectations for a 9–10% return on tangible equity by 2026 and a distributed yield rising to the mid-teens by 2027, UBS said that much of the near-term optimism is already reflected in the share price. 

The potential for 7–11% upside in earnings per share remains, but only if the bank meets its cost-income targets and navigates a challenging macro environment.

UBS described the earnings outlook as stable, supported by lower restructuring costs, integration benefits from LeasePlan, and reduced acquisition spending in its Boursobank unit. 

Yet, with a relatively low return target and a business mix still heavily reliant on market income, analysts flagged the bank’s exposure to broader European economic uncertainty.

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