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Despite a sharp sell-off Monday, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have shown a strong conviction in the equities market, UBS said.
The sell-off did not deter CTAs from purchasing approximately $50 to $60 billion in stocks since the last update provided by UBS. The report suggests that while overall flows are expected to stabilize, a continued shift from U.S. equities to European equities is likely.
The U.S. dollar's strength, which CTAs have been very bullish on, is facing challenges. The lack of significant tariff announcements last week contributed to a decline in the dollar's value.
This is expected to lead to a reduction in risk over the next two weeks, with an estimated $40 billion in unwinding flows, representing 22% of CTAs' current foreign exchange exposure. This adjustment is predicted to be distributed evenly between G10 and emerging market (EM) currencies.
Lastly, the report addresses the commodity sector, where CTAs have been rapidly increasing their positions across all four cohorts—precious metals, industrial commodities, energy, and agricultural products—since January.
However, UBS's model forecasts a potential reversal of these flows in February, particularly in energy and precious metals, where CTA positioning may be becoming overly extended.
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