UBS analysts have raised their 2024-2026 earnings estimates for European exchanges Euronext (ENX) and Deutsche Börse Group (DB1) by 1% to 2% to account for higher expected transactional activity.
The bank’s Q2 2024 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for both exchanges are 6% above consensus “driven by higher trading revenues and NII at DB1 and higher trading revenues at ENX.”
UBS said that that uncertainty regarding monetary policy across various central banks has led to accelerated trading activity in interest rate, FX, and commodity products throughout Q2 2024. These products constitute about 17% of revenues for DB1 and around 12% for Euronext ENX.
Moreover, French President Macron's unexpected decision to hold parliamentary elections increased equity market volatility in the last three weeks of the quarter, boosting trading activity in both equity index futures and cash equities.
“Given the recent increase in trading activity and volatility in recent weeks, we expect to see upward revisions to Q2:24 consensus EPS for the exchanges with higher exposure to transactional revenues,” analysts at UBS said in a note, reiterating Buy ratings for both companies.