UBS says Oracle undervalued at 15x FY30 EPS given long-term cloud growth

Published 17/10/2025, 14:52
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Investing.com -- UBS raised its price target on Oracle to $380 from $360 and reiterated a Buy rating, saying the company’s new long-term revenue and earnings outlook makes its current valuation too cheap.

Stock’s price target was raised to $380 from $360.

Oracle lifted its fiscal 2030 cloud infrastructure revenue target by $22 billion to $166 billion at its investor day and disclosed a deal backlog topping $500 billion. It now projects total revenue of $225 billion and EPS of $21 for FY30.

CEO Clay Magouyrk said new bookings were coming from not just OpenAI but a range of customers.

Oracle’s most recent quarterly revenue growth of 11% has yet to reflect the 35% compound growth rate the company now guides for over the next four years, with UBS saying the upside not priced into the stock.

The analysts also noted Oracle’s assurances that gross margins on GPU infrastructure are running at 30-40% over contract lifespans, better than feared, and highlighted potential pull-through demand for its database and SaaS businesses as AI adoption accelerates.

Though the bulk of Oracle’s raised guidance begins in fiscal 2028, leaving limited upside to FY26-27 earnings, while execution on new AI infrastructure projects and reliance on large customers like OpenAI remain watch points.

UBS raised its FY30 EPS estimate to $20.47 from $15.40 and applied a 44x multiple to its 2027 earnings forecast, calling that a justified premium to peers.

At 15x FY30 earnings, Oracle shares remain “too cheap”

“Oracle and its customers (OpenAI, Meta and xAI) need to deliver, but we remain BUY-rated on a belief that the stock can move higher as it executes on this guide acceleration,” analysts at UBS said.

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