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Investing.com -- UBS has increased its peak sales forecast for AstraZeneca’s (NYSE:NASDAQ:AZN) baxdrostat to $4 billion from $3 billion, citing encouraging efficacy data from the BrigHTN study.
The investment firm expects results from the Phase 3 BaxHTN trial in resistant/uncontrolled hypertension during the third quarter of 2025.
The baxdrostat study represents one of two key catalysts UBS identifies that could help AstraZeneca meet its $80 billion revenue target by 2030.
UBS currently forecasts AstraZeneca will reach $75.5 billion in total revenue by 2030, reflecting 5% drug sales growth and 6% revenue growth from 2024 to 2030.
Competitor data from Mineralys’ lorundrostat presented in March 2025 supports the efficacy of aldosterone synthase inhibitors, bolstering UBS’s optimistic outlook for baxdrostat.
The firm assigns a 58% probability of success for baxdrostat, representing a 1.1% net present value in its proprietary Pharma Values framework.
UBS remains cautious on AstraZeneca’s other major catalyst, the Phase 3 AVANZAR study of Dato-DXd (Datroway) in first-line non-small cell lung cancer. Despite encouraging early Phase 1b biomarker data presented at ASCO, UBS believes caution is warranted when extrapolating to the AVANZAR study.
The investment firm models a 25% probability of $3.7 billion peak sales for AVANZAR, representing a 0.8% net present value, but believes the consensus estimate of $3-4 billion in total Dato-DXd sales can be achieved largely without AVANZAR through other indications like EGFR-mutant lung and breast cancer.
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