UBS upgrades Amplitude on growth acceleration outweighs OpenAI threat

Published 31/10/2025, 15:54
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS upgraded Amplitude Inc to Buy from Neutral with a $13 price target, saying the analytics platform is set to return to more than 20% revenue growth by fiscal 2026 as customer spending stabilizes and adoption of new products increases.

The brokerage said Amplitude is emerging from a period of rightsizing that had slowed growth across the software sector, with customer checks pointing to renewed spending and multi-product traction.

Three out of four customers surveyed expect to increase usage by 5% to 15% in coming quarters, UBS said.

It added that usage-based pricing and the company’s expanding analytics suite support a credible path to reacceleration. Amplitude’s net new annual recurring revenue in the June quarter was the strongest since late 2022, while churn rates improved.

UBS said the key investor concern remains OpenAI’s acquisition of Statsig, which some fear could evolve into a competitor in product analytics.

However, its conversations with customers and a former OpenAI employee suggest the risk is limited, as OpenAI is focused on using Statsig internally rather than building a rival commercial offering. The note also cited potential hesitation among enterprises to share sensitive data with an OpenAI-owned tool.

UBS said Amplitude’s valuation at 3 times 2026 expected sales already reflects these risks and looks attractive given the company’s improving fundamentals.

The brokerage expects Amplitude’s revenue growth to accelerate toward 21% by 2027, supported by easing customer downsizing, growing cross-sell opportunities and early optionality in AI agent analytics.

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