UBS warns steel stock outlook dims amid new tariffs

Published 04/04/2025, 09:18
© Reuters.

President Trump unveiled new tariffs, including a 10% increase for all countries starting from April 5, and additional reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10-50% across 185 countries, effective April 9.

However, steel products, which are already subject to a 25% tariff under Section 232, including automobiles and their parts, will not be affected by the new reciprocal tariffs. Canada and Mexico are also exempt from these tariffs, with USMCA-compliant goods continuing to enjoy a 0% tariff.

UBS has indicated that the new "Liberation Day" tariffs are likely to be a net negative for U.S. steel stocks, such as Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) and Steel Dynamics , Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD), which saw a decline of 2-3% after the market closed.

This reaction comes contrary to market and investor expectations that the tariffs would be cumulative, adding the new 10% Liberation tariffs on top of the existing 25% Section 232 tariffs.

The tariffs are also anticipated to have a more severe impact on demand than previously expected, with predictions of GDP growth between 1.5-2% and inflation nearing 5% if the tariffs are not rolled back.

The exemptions granted to Canada and Mexico regarding reciprocal tariffs are seen as a positive in terms of demand, but they also limit the potential for U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) price increases. Canadian and Mexican imports accounted for approximately 55% of the 2024 HRC imports into the U.S.

The tariffs are set to remain in place until the concerns regarding trade deficits and nonreciprocal treatment are resolved.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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