UCB beats estimates, sets conservative 2025 guidance with strong pipeline

Published 27/02/2025, 09:44
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UCB SA (EBR:UCB) on Thursday reported stronger-than-expected results in 2024, with revenue reaching €6.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA at €1.48 billion, both surpassing consensus expectations.

The results were driven by strong sales of Bimzelx and Rystiggo, alongside higher-than-anticipated other revenues, including milestone payments and a termination fee for minzasolmin.

Bimzelx, UCB’s treatment for psoriasis and hidradenitis suppurativa, saw global sales of €607 million, with the U.S. market contributing €287 million. 

The drug captured over 25% of the U.S. IL-17 market within its first year, supported by increasing patient numbers and improved formulary access. 

Rystiggo, UCB’s therapy for generalized myasthenia gravis, generated €202 million in sales, a 162% year-over-year increase, while Zilbrysq recorded €72 million in sales, exceeding analyst expectations.

The second-half 2024 results reflected an 8% revenue beat, primarily due to stronger-than-expected sales of Bimzelx  and Rystiggo, despite significant launch investments.

Adjusted EBITDA exceeded projections by 5%, while core EPS outperformed by 18%, aided by lower net financial expenses and a reduced tax rate.

For 2025, UCB has guided revenues between €6.5 billion and €6.7 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 30%. 

Analysts from Jefferies, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and Barclays (LON:BARC) view this guidance as conservative but aligned with expectations, considering the impact of divestments. 

Investors are expected to focus on the U.S. Bimzelx uptake and bridging ratios through 2025, with potential for upward earnings revisions as new launches gain traction.

Pipeline updates brought a mix of positive developments and delays. UCB announced favorable Phase 2 data for galvokimig, a bispecific targeting IL-17A, IL-17F, and IL-13 in atopic dermatitis, though next steps are still being evaluated. 

Meanwhile, Phase 2 data for donzakimig, targeting IL-13 and IL-22, is now expected in H2’25 due to slower-than-anticipated recruitment. 

The Phase 2 trial for Rystiggo in severe fibromyalgia did not meet criteria for progression and was discontinued. 

The Phase 3 trial for Fintepla in CDKL5 deficiency disorder has completed recruitment, with results expected in H1’25. Other ongoing studies, including dapirolizumab in systemic lupus erythematosus and Staccato alprazolam in epileptic seizures, remain on track.

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