UCB upgraded to “buy” as BofA raises Bimzelx sales forecast above consensus

Investing.com -- BofA Securities upgraded UCB SA to “buy” from “neutral,” raising its price objective to €225 from €210, citing strong commercial momentum for its inflammatory disease drug, Bimzelx. 

The analysts forecast Bimzelx sales to exceed consensus by 10–15% for FY25–28, with its U.S. FY25 prescription rate now estimated to be three to four times higher than FY24. 

Peak Bimzelx sales are now projected at €7 billion, up from €6 billion, split across psoriasis (€3.1 billion), hidradenitis suppurativa (HS, €2.2 billion), psoriatic arthritis (PsA, €1.3 billion), and axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA, €600 million).

Despite prescription growth, UCB shares have lagged the sector by over 10% in 2025, pressured by investor concerns over U.S. tariffs and Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing risks. 

BofA estimates that UCB’s Medicare Part B exposure could result in a €200–250 million sales hit in FY26, or 2–3% of group sales, due to potential MFN price cuts. 

Tariff risks could lead to a high-single-digit EBIT impact, though BofA noted that increased U.S. manufacturing could provide long-term mitigation.

Analysts see three potential catalysts in 2H25 that could lift the stock: any regulatory relief from tariffs or MFN pricing, clarity on Bimzelx pricing impact in 1H25 results, and Phase III data in September for competitor Sonelokimab from Moonlake, which is not expected to materially outperform Bimzelx. 

BofA maintains Bimzelx’s positioning as best-in-class, citing its broader label, established prescriber base, and physician comfort.

The HS market is forecast to grow from $2–3 billion currently to over $10 billion by 2035, driven by increased biologic penetration and diagnosis rates. 

BofA expects IL-17 class drugs like Bimzelx to dominate this space, with Bimzelx potentially securing a 40–50% market share in the class. Each HS patient is estimated to contribute 75% more revenue than a psoriasis patient, further boosting revenue potential.

In the U.S., psoriasis paid prescription rates are forecast to rise from 49% in FY24 to 77% in FY25, offsetting a higher gross-to-net discount of 60% (up from 30%). 

Total (EPA:TTEF) U.S. Bimzelx sales are projected to reach $1.07 billion in FY25 and $3.72 billion by FY28. 

Across all regions and indications, BofA’s FY25–28 Bimzelx revenue forecasts exceed consensus by 9–16% annually.

BofA’s valuation assumes a 23x P/E on FY26 earnings, a 40% premium to the sector average of 16x, supported by an estimated 20% EPS CAGR from 2026 to 2029. 

FY25 adjusted EPS is forecast at €7.36, rising to €9.74 in FY26 and €12.70 in FY27. UCB’s adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to grow from 30% in FY25 to nearly 40% by 2030, driven by Bimzelx and four other key products contributing an additional €2 billion in revenue by FY30.