Wall Street sees caffeine-fuelled growth ahead for Black Rock Coffee Bar

Published 07/10/2025, 15:46
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Analysts started coverage of newly listed Black Rock Coffee Bar with bullish views on its expansion, saying the fast-growing drive-thru coffee chain has strong unit-level returns and room to capture share in the $130 billion U.S. beverage market.

Morgan Stanley, Stifel and Baird all started the stock with buy-equivalent ratings, given its early growth stage, favorable category tailwinds and scalable store model.

Morgan Stanley called the company a “small but fast-growing challenger” that “checks most boxes for an equity story,” pointing to visibility on 20% unit growth and 25% EBITDA growth in coming years. The firm set a $28 price target, saying those metrics justify a high multiple.

Stifel said Black Rock’s “impressive unit-level economics, expansion potential, and development pace check all the boxes for a compelling restaurant growth investment.”

It initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $27 target, estimating average unit volumes near $1.2 million and store-level margins of about 28%, among the strongest in the sector.

Baird valued the company’s “scarce projected growth profile” and “attractive unit-level returns on capital,” starting coverage at Outperform with a $32 target.

It forecast 25%–30% annual EBITDA growth and said the chain’s mix of drive-thru speed and “elevated in-store ambiance” positions it to build brand loyalty as it scales beyond its current seven-state footprint.

JPMorgan was more cautious, initiating at Neutral with a $24 target, saying “much of the near-term upside is already reflected” in the shares following their September IPO.

The company has “high margin nature” but said success will hinge on execution as it expands into new markets such as California and Texas.

Black Rock Coffee, founded in 2008 in Oregon, operates about 160 company-owned locations. Its plan to grow to 1000 stores by 2035, backed by strong cash-on-cash returns, gives it a long runway in a lucrative category still dominated by Starbucks and Dutch Bros.

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