What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Published 08/05/2025, 20:02
© Reuters

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may have leaned hawkish on Wednesday after flagging the growing risks of higher inflation and slowing growth, but that didn’t change expectations for the Fed to cut rates multiple times this year as tariffs threaten to deliver a mighty economic blow.

The Fed’s latest decision landed largely as expected, but the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference were “slightly more hawkish than expected,” according to Sevens Report analysts, as policymakers highlighted the dual risks of persistent inflation and rising unemployment.

Markets had been hoping for more focus on growth risks, which would have hinted at a sooner start to rate cuts. The Fed, however, “failed to elevate one risk over the other, again implying it’s in no hurry to cut rates.”

Still, the market’s rate cut outlook remains intact. “Neither the decision nor Powell’s press conference changed the outlook for three (or maybe four) rate cuts (although July is now the consensus first cut),” the report said. The unchanged expectations came even as the Fed signaled a “wait-and-see” approach, keeping much of the recent market optimism-built on the expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year to cushion the economy from the fallout of tariffs and policy uncertainty-intact.

But if the Fed doesn’t meet expectations and prolongs a pause on cuts, "that increases the chances that tariffs cause a recession or a hard landing, and that investor fears of a tariff and policy-driven contraction come true.”

For now, the Fed’s patient stance is seen as a “slight incremental negative,” reinforcing the view that the S&P 500 is likely to remain rangebound.

“The market wants the Fed’s support for the economy and if that’s not there (and rates don’t change), then the outlook for the economy is slightly worse than it was before.”

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