Earnings call transcript: Amerigo Resources Q1 2025 misses earnings forecast

Amerigo Resources Ltd. (ARG) reported its Q1 2025 earnings, revealing a shortfall in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to market forecasts. The company reported an EPS of $0.02, falling short of the $0.04 forecast, and revenue of $44.2 million, below the expected $46.7 million. Despite this, the stock saw a modest increase, closing at $1.72, up by 0.58%. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company currently appears undervalued based on its Fair Value assessment, with a Financial Health Score of 2.49, indicating fair overall condition.

Key Takeaways

• Amerigo Resources reported lower-than-expected EPS and revenue for Q1 2025.
• The company maintained its annual production guidance for copper.
• A maintenance shutdown was completed ahead of schedule.
• The stock saw a slight increase despite the earnings miss.

Company Performance

Amerigo Resources demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025 despite missing earnings expectations. The company reported a net income of $3.3 million and an EBITDA of $15.2 million. The copper tolling business remained robust, contributing $40.6 million to the revenue. The company completed a significant maintenance shutdown, which was previously scheduled for Q2, without any lost time accidents, highlighting operational efficiency with a plant availability of 97.6%.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $44.2 million, slightly down from $44.9 million YoY
• Earnings per share: $0.02, compared to the forecast of $0.04
• EBITDA: $15.2 million
• Net income: $3.3 million
• Cash generated from operations: $11.6 million

Earnings vs. Forecast

Amerigo Resources reported an EPS of $0.02, missing the forecasted $0.04 by 50%. Revenue was also below expectations at $44.2 million, compared to the projected $46.7 million. The earnings miss marks a deviation from the company’s historical trend of meeting or exceeding forecasts, suggesting potential challenges in market conditions or operational execution.

Market Reaction

Despite the earnings miss, Amerigo Resources’ stock experienced a slight increase, closing at $1.72, a 0.58% rise. This movement might reflect investor confidence in the company’s long-term strategy, including its commitment to becoming debt-free by year-end and potential dividend increases. The stock’s current market capitalization stands at $4.3 billion, with a P/E ratio of 26.34. InvestingPro analysis shows the company has delivered a strong return over the last decade, with a beta of 0.46 indicating lower volatility than the broader market. For detailed valuation metrics and comprehensive analysis, investors can access the exclusive Pro Research Report, available for 1,400+ top stocks through InvestingPro.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Amerigo Resources maintains its annual copper production guidance of 62.9 million pounds and expects copper prices to remain strong, above $4.15 per pound. The company aims to be debt-free by the end of the year and plans to continue its share buyback program, with potential for increased dividends once debt is eliminated. With a current ratio of 6.63 and zero debt-to-equity ratio, InvestingPro data suggests strong financial flexibility to support these initiatives. The company’s robust free cash flow yield and high shareholder returns position it favorably among its peers.

Executive Commentary

Aurora Davidson, CEO of Amerigo Resources, emphasized the company’s strategic position, stating, "Owning shares of Amerigo represents the best way for investors to capitalize on rising copper prices." Furthermore, she highlighted the importance of copper in global manufacturing and industrial policy.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential trade protectionism could impact copper prices and demand.
• Weather conditions affecting copper grade quality.
• Global economic uncertainties that could affect commodity markets.
• Execution risks related to the maintenance shutdowns and CapEx management.
• Dependence on strong Chinese demand for copper.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the timing of the maintenance shutdown and its impact on production. The company explained that the shutdown was moved to Q1 to optimize operational efficiency. Additionally, questions about the potential for future dividend increases were addressed, with management confirming plans to prioritize debt elimination before increasing shareholder returns.

Full transcript - Amerigo Resources Ltd. (ARG) Q1 2025:

Conference Operator: Thank you. Mr. Graham Farrell of NorthStar Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to Amerigo’s quarterly conference call to discuss the company’s financial results for the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Thank you for joining us today. This call will cover Amerigo’s financial and operating results for the first quarter ended 03/31/2025. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the conference call to a question and answer session.

Our call today will be led by Amerigo’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Aurora Davidson along with the company’s Chief Financial Officer, Carmen Amesquita. Before we begin our formal remarks, I would like to remind everyone that some of the statements on this conference call may be forward looking statements. Forward looking statements may include, but are not necessarily limited to, financial projections or other statements of the company’s plans, objectives, expectations or intentions. These matters involve certain risks and uncertainties. Company’s actual results may differ significantly from those projected or suggested by any forward looking statements due to a variety of factors, which are discussed in detail in our SEDAR plus filings.

I will now hand the call over to Aurora Davidson. Please go ahead Aurora.

Conference Operator: Thank you, Brent. Welcome to Amerigo’s earnings call for the first quarter of twenty twenty five. We are pleased to report a strong financial performance during our annual maintenance shutdown quarter. As noted in our April 9 news release, NDC completed the maintenance shutdown in Q1 this year compared to Q2 in 2024. This affects our year over year quarterly analysis and also impacts quarterly production and cash cost, which is reported on a per pound basis.

For those of you who have been long term Amerigo shareholders, you know the maintenance shutdown is part of their normal operations, and we quantify its impact when preparing the annual budget and market guidance. In other words, for those new to our story, please don’t simply multiply Q1 production times four and assume we are behind guidance. Our guidance of 62,900,000 of copper remains on track. Regarding financial performance, Q1 results included net income of $3,300,000 and earnings per share of $02 Cash generated from operations, which is a far more substantial number for you to follow on and because it’s a lifeblood of Amerigo, was substantial at $11,600,000 Free cash flow to equity was 4,800,000.0 and BRL 4,600,000.0 was returned to shareholders in the quarter through our capital return strategy, Amerigo CRS. During the quarter, this return of capital included BRL 3,500,000.0 in the quarterly dividend and $1,500,000 in share buybacks.

Since its inception in October 2021, the CRS has returned $83,000,000 to shareholders, sixty eight percent as total dividends and 32% through buybacks. Turning to our operational performance, MVC continues to rock. During the quarter, we had no lost time accidents with our employees or subcontractors. MVC now has a record of three years and three months without lost time accidents. This record continues to grow with every passing day.

We also operated with no environmental incidents and had a plant availability of 97.6%. I briefly mentioned the maintenance shutdown before, but I want to give you some additional numbers. During the shutdown, NDC brought in an extra nine sixty subcontractors. All told, seven seventy work orders were executed and six forty nine pieces of equipment in ten days of maintenance. This is incredible planning and execution, and it mirrors the high standards NDC sets for its day to day operations.

With the operational work done, strong first quarter financial results now in the books and solid macro factors put in place during the first quarter, we are in excellent shape moving forward. Amerigo is well positioned vis a vis our annual production target, cash cost guidance and other yearly goals. And as you know, a significant goal is to make our final debt payments of BRL 10,500,000.0 this year and be debt free by year end. Now let’s look at some market data. Copper prices in the first quarter responded positively to the structural challenges of growing demand and constrained supply.

The average monthly spot price per pound on the London Metal Exchange or LME increased from $4.05 in December to $4.41 in March. The average LME copper price in the first quarter was $4.24 The LME is the benchmark market for copper producers, where most of the world’s long term copper supply contracts are traded, including ours. When constructing our 2025 budget, we took a conservative approach as we always do, and we assumed an average LME copper price of $4.15 for this year. So the average price in Q1 already outperformed our budget, which is good news. However, within that better than expected Q1 average price, there was considerable volatility.

For example, the monthly averages during the first quarter were in January ’4 zero ’7, ’4 ’20 ’3 in February and four forty one in March. And during the quarter, daily prices were even more volatile, ranging from a low of three ninety four to a high of four fifty three. Along with the noisy short term volatility in copper prices, the underlying copper supply challenges we have previously discussed many times persisted in Q1. This was evidenced, to give you some examples, by a 30% quarter on quarter drop in Glencore’s copper production and a 17% drop in Freeport’s copper production. Production shortfalls are one of the fundamental underpinnings of our expectation for rising long term copper prices.

On the demand side, everyone wants copper. This year, copper inventories have been substantially redirected from Europe and Asia to The U. S. This is due to the impact of proposed tariffs and is one of the factors driving the significant arbitrage between the COMEX and LME copper prices this year. Chinese demand is also strong as shown by the recent drawdown of physical stocks and high imported cattle premiums, which were at their highest levels in November 2022.

In addition to the copper supply and demand dynamics, we think that if global trade patterns continue to shift towards more protectionism, this will likely pull the copper price further up, not push it down. Not only is it difficult to produce copper, but most nations just either don’t produce any or don’t produce enough copper for their own use. These countries will need to continue to import copper, and this includes The United States. On the other hand, if the trade war deescalates, this would energize global markets and support higher copper prices. Here is a recent commentary from Jonathan Price, CEO of Teck.

He presents a well constructed view that despite the threat of a global economic downturn, copper is essential for global manufacturing, industrial policy and national security, electrification infrastructure as well as the growth of the digital economy. In his recent tech first quarter earnings call, he also mentioned that, economies are looking to shore up their industrial sectors amid the turbulence. For example, defense spending may be significantly broadened to include areas central to economic resilience, such as upgrades to and expansion of electricity grids, which remain central to copper demand. Texas is providing a medium term boost to metals demand as the world enters into a state backed, more capital intensive phase of growth. So Texas comments strongly support our fundamental outlook for copper.

So far this year, structural supply challenges persist and demand is not decelerating. We think we will continue to see copper price volatility. However, we believe that the annual average price will be stronger than $415 which was the average LME price in 2024. And as I have said before, the price that we used to construct this year’s budget. Moving on to comments on Amerigo CRS, our capital return strategy.

I hope you have seen Amerigo’s new investor presentation on our website. The deck shows how well the CRS has performed for shareholders. For example, we have included a graph showing Amerigo’s compound annual growth rate of total returns since the CRS was deployed all the way to April 30. Compared to copper ETFs, mid tier copper producers and copper sales, Amerigo leads the pack with an 83% total return. The SPDR Standard and Poor Metals ETF followed us in a distant second place with a 37% return over the same period.

This data confirms what we have been saying for several years. Owning shares of Amerigo represents the best way for investors to capitalize on rising copper prices. The deck also shows Amerigo’s returns, dividends and buybacks for each quarter and how this have occurred with continued debt reduction. We also show how our 2025 debt elimination goal will unlock even more return of capital. This positive pattern of total returns to shareholders continued to be strong during the first quarter.

Amerigo’s share price rose 20% from CAD 1.59 to CAD 1.91, and we returned, as I said before, 3,500,000.0 in dividends and $1,500,000 via share buybacks. Our baseline commitment is to annually buyback the number of shares required to ensure no shareholder dilution. For 2025, that commitment has already been met, but we will most likely still buy back more shares this year. And as I have said before, doing buybacks does not mean there will be no performance dividend. Both can occur under strong copper prices.

As a quick update on our shareholder representation, we believe that a significant position of around 12,500,000.0 shares held by a former Amerigo Director has now been sold. This was done gradually and was absorbed into the public float in an orderly way. So we have new shareholders in the company, and I know we also have long term shareholders with bigger positions. I will close my remarks by stating that we will continue to benefit from our unique company strengths in 2025. We have a long term business at NDC that produces additional copper for Chile.

Operationally, we will stay focused on safety, controlling costs and meeting our production guidance of 62,900,000 pounds of copper. Our capital return strategy is active and effective. We promptly returned to shareholders essentially all the free cash flow generated by the company during the quarter. And under current conditions, we remain on track to eliminate our remaining minimal debt by the end of this year. Amerigo’s CFO, Carmen Amestida, will ask the company’s financial results.

Carmen, please go ahead.

Carmen Amesquita, Chief Financial Officer, Amerigo: Thanks, Aurora. I will now present the financial report for the first quarter of twenty twenty five from Amerigo and its MVC operation in Chile. During the three months ended 03/31/2025, the company posted a net income of 3,300,000.0 earnings per share of $02 or $03 Canadian and EBITDA of $15,200,000 This positive result occurred due to the stronger copper prices despite lower production in the quarter due to the timing of MVC’s annual maintenance shutdown, which has taken place in the second quarter for the last several years, but in 2025 occurred during the first quarter. Revenue in Q1 twenty twenty five was $44,200,000 compared to $44,900,000 in the prior year quarter. This included copper tolling revenue of $40,600,000 and molybdenum revenue of $3,600,000 In Q1 twenty twenty five, the gross value of copper tolled on behalf of DET was $55,000,000 From this gross revenue, we deduct notional items, including DET royalties of 16,100,000.0 smelting and refining of 2,900,000 and transportation of $300,000 and then add positive fair value adjustments to settlement receivables of 4,900,000.0 Tolling and production costs decreased 7% from $37,100,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four to $34,500,000 in Q1 twenty twenty five, which can mostly be attributed to the decrease in production as a result of the annual maintenance shutdown occurring during Q1.

The gross profit after revenue and production costs was $9,700,000 compared to $7,800,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four. And then other losses, including general and administrative expenses, derivative to related parties and other gains and losses were fairly consistent at $1,400,000 compared to $1,300,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four. This left us with a total operating profit of $8,300,000 in Q1 twenty twenty five compared to $6,500,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four. Finance expense was $400,000 compared to $500,000 as a result of lower carrying debt. And an income tax expense of $4,600,000 was recognized with a current income tax expense of $2,700,000 and a deferred tax expense of 1,900,000.0 resulting in a net income for the quarter of $3,300,000 Moving on to the balance sheet, on 03/31/2025, the company held cash and cash equivalents of $27,700,000 and restricted cash of $3,100,000 We had a working capital deficiency of $4,600,000 down from a working capital deficiency of $6,500,000 on 12/31/2024.

Trade in accounts payable decreased by $6,300,000 in the quarter from $24,600,000 to $18,300,000 This was due to the company having higher than normal accounts payable at the December as a result of administrative delays in payments normally made at the end of the month, which were caused by the year end holidays. There was also a reduction of $5,400,000 in royalties due to DET during the quarter due to decreased royalties in Q1 twenty twenty five compared to Q4 twenty twenty four. Another important short term liability on the March 31 balance sheet was $9,600,000 due in connection with MVC income tax. Note that in line with Chilean tax requirements, MVC pays monthly tax installments based on a percentage of revenue that may or may not be close to the final corporate tax for a given year. Then, in April of the following year, when a tax declaration is filed for the previous year, any difference in the amount owing versus the installment payments made is paid at that time.

Subsequent to period end in April 2025, MVC paid $8,000,000 in income tax related to the 2024 year. Regarding cash flows during the quarter, Amerigo generated cash flow from operations of $11,600,000 The net cash flow generated after changes in non cash working capital was $1,900,000 As I mentioned before, when reviewing the balance sheet, during the quarter, we had substantial reductions in accounts payable and DET royalties. The decreases in accounts payable and royalties payable resulted in outlay of cash, thereby decreasing the cash flow from operations net of these non cash working capital items. In terms of uses of cash, 6,800,000.0 was used in investing activities, in other words for CapEx payments, and $3,300,000 was used in financing activities. During Q1 twenty twenty five, Amerigo returned $4,600,000 to shareholders, including $3,500,000 returned to shareholders through Amerigo’s regular quarterly dividend of CAD0.03 per share and CAD1.1 million from the purchase and cancellation of 800,000.0 common shares through a normal course issuer bid.

This was then offset by changes to restricted cash of CAD1.3 million. As a final comment, we reported a provisional copper price of $4.42 per pound on our Q1 twenty twenty five sales. The final settlement prices for January, February and March 2025 sales will be the average LME prices for April, May, and June 2025 respectively. Each 10% increase or decrease from the $4.42 per pound provisional price used on 03/31/2025 would result in a $5,700,000 change in revenue in Q2 twenty twenty five regarding Q1 twenty twenty five production. The average price for April 2025 is now known and was $4.17 per pound.

We will report Amerigo’s Q2 twenty twenty five financial results on 07/30/2025, and want to thank you for your continued interest in the company. We will now take questions from call participants.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Session. The first question comes from Nicholas Cortellucci at Atrium. Congrats

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: on another strong quarter here.

Conference Operator: Thanks. Go ahead.

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: Yes. So the first question here, given the maintenance shutdown in Q1, how should we expect the cadence of revenue for the remainder of the year so you guys can get back to the GBP 52,900,000.0 guidance?

Conference Operator: The only effect on production and therefore on revenue generation was felt in Q1. We actually had the maintenance shutdown done most of it in January, but due to the requirements set by El Centeniente, there was also a second phase of the maintenance shutdown in March. Everything was completed prior to month end. We had a full ten days or so of normal operations already in March. And we’ve had already our production report for April coming in strong.

So we are essentially back to normal in terms of what you would expect to see in Q2 is a fully regular production and revenue generation quarter.

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: Got it. Okay, perfect.

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: And then just on the grade from the fresh tailings side, it dropped a little bit in Q1. Was there a reason for that? What should we expect going forward?

Conference Operator: It’s usually and that’s a good observation. It’s usually the lowest grade quarter of the year. It is shaded with the amount of ice that is coming down from the mountains in Chile. It’s just weather conditions, water accumulation in the different mine sectors affects the areas in which they work. We’ve observed that phenomenon for a number of years.

So it just happened to be that for the first time in four years, even five years now, this is the first we had the first quarter lower grade coming in on the fresh and the maintenance shutdown occurring concurrently. We’ve had the maintenance shutdown happening in Q2 or even in Q3 in prior years. So this kind of double effect that has an impact on production was not concentrated in a single quarter. We knew going into our budget that the Q1 grades are pretty low embedded within the work program that El Teniente has and shares with us and from which we build the budget for the fresh tailings. And we also knew we’re going to be having the shutdown in Q1.

So the results for Q1 were not a surprise for us. And that’s why I’m insisting, especially for the benefit of new shareholders that this is not a quarter that can just be extrapolated for the rest of the year. The one of ugly doubling quarter of the year. We always have one, and it’s part of our normal operations.

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: Understood. Okay. And then just on the CapEx, I know it was a bit elevated in Q1 versus the last couple of quarters. What should we expect for the rest of the year to factor that in 2,000,000 to $3,000,000 range?

Conference Operator: Look, on the CapEx, our CapEx numbers for 2025 were included in our annual guidance. And we mentioned 8,800,000.0 of CapEx proper for projects and BRL 4,200,000.0 on sustaining CapEx associated with the annual maintenance shutdown and strategic spares. So there’s also a timing front loading of the CapEx to the Q1 because of a significant portion of the CapEx is incurred on the sustaining work that is capitalized and occurs during the plant shutdown. So the total budget for the year is 13,000,000. It was front loaded into Q1.

If you look at our I think in our MD and A, we mentioned that the CapEx addition that we had in the quarter was were million dollars So it’s, again, not you shouldn’t just take what we incurred in CapEx in Q1 and multiply it by four, that wouldn’t be correct. And another factor that occurred associated with CapEx in Q1 was that we had high CapEx payments. We paid $6,800,000 which included accounts payable for CapEx that we had for 2024 for work that was done November, December of ’20 ’20 ’4. But most of the work that we incurred CapEx wise in Q1 has already been paid for. So again, it’s a front loading of CapEx.

Our guidance for full year CapEx of BRL 13,000,000 remains in place.

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: Okay. Understood. And then maybe just on the buyback. Should we expect for you guys to have a declining shares outstanding year over year maybe by the end of

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: the year? Or is it just kind

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: of keeping up with the stock based compensation?

Conference Operator: The minimum commitment is for no dilution. We have surpassed that minimum commitment in Q1, and we are going back into the market tomorrow with buyback activity once we come out of our blackout period. We see that there is opportunity to continue buying back our shares at good prices. I consider our price today to be a price at which we want to buy back shares, and we will continue to do so this year. Last year, we didn’t do a lot of buybacks because we were replenishing cash after 2023.

We also thought that doing a first performance dividend in 2024 was quite important, and we did so. But this year, we are seeing with a performance compared to our plan, We’re ahead of the game, and we’re doing buybacks. And as I’ve said before, doing buybacks doesn’t mean that there will not be a preferred dividend or a performance dividend under the right copper price conditions.

Nicholas Cortellucci, Analyst, Atrium: Got it. Okay. Those are all the questions for me. That’s very helpful. I’ll jump back in the queue.

Thanks for the time.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Thank you. Next question comes from John Pokhari, an investor. Please go ahead.

John Pokhari, Investor: Thank you. Relatively brief questions. First, in addition to the regular dividends, possible performance dividends, possible stock repurchases, in light of the fact that there’ll be no debt obligations by the end of the year, Is the board possibly considering an increase in the permanent dividend at some point, or would that not be something that would be entertained?

Conference Operator: John, I have to give you credit for persistence. I think you asked the same direction last quarter. I think it’s important. It’s an important point for all all shareholders. And yes, I mean, at the end of the day, when debt is eliminated, what do we have?

We have anywhere from 7,000,000 to $9,000,000 that have been allocated annually to repaying the principal and the associated financial charges being freed up. And they will be freed up for the benefit of shareholders. And one of the logical mechanisms to moving forward would be to revisit the quantum of the quarterly dividend.

John Pokhari, Investor: Okay. I commend you on your memory. The royalties, I believe, are structured up to a level of approximately $5 a pound copper. I would assume because when it was originally structured, copper prices were not anticipated to have reached such an elevated level. Is there any progress regarding new royalty royalty payments if copper were to be $5.50 higher, a more dramatic price for the actual copper price?

Conference Operator: The existence of higher or lower copper prices is captured within the agreement in the sense that if we come out of the range of prices that we currently have, we have to meet with El Teniente. There’s a process outlined in the contract that says after two months of continued copper prices or moly prices outside of the ranges, we have to meet with them and establish a continuation of royalty scales with the spirit of continuing to allocate the benefits of the business in an equitable way to both parties. So we never assumed in the quarter in doing a long term contract that currently runs to 02/1937, that copper prices wouldn’t go beyond a certain number. We knew that would happen and there’s a mechanism, which hasn’t been triggered because we haven’t been there. So there is no progress to report because there is not yet a condition triggering that discussion with El Diente.

John Pokhari, Investor: Thank you. My last question, and maybe this is for Carmen. Can you just review for me the mix some of the mechanics of revenue recognition after you have reprocessed the tailings? I assume they’re trucks to melter. And is that when the provisional price is set upon delivery?

Conference Operator: I’ll answer that quickly because it’s a very simple question. We produce copper concentrate on a daily basis. Our copper concentrate is shipped out of MVC by El Teniente on a weekly basis. So there’s constant hauling of the copper concentrate out of the plant into El Teniente’s facilities, whether El Teniente determines to do domestic smelting or to put it in a container ship and send it overseas. That’s their decision.

We don’t do that. We get our revenue recognition is essentially at the time the copper is produced and trucked, which is almost instantaneously, we get to recognize and that’s when we trigger our revenue recognition. The revenue recognition is at on a provisional basis at the price for the month, for the average price of the month, and we settle it on an n plus three basis once we have that final pricing.

John Pokhari, Investor: And just a quick follow-up on that. That provisional price upon delivery, is that Chilean pesos? And then could when when

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: is it in

Conference Operator: It’s US dollars.

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: Okay.

John Pokhari, Investor: That was it. Thank you.

Brent, Investor Relations Representative, NorthStar Investor Relations: That was great Thank

Conference Operator: you. We have no further questions. I will turn the call back over to Aurora Davidson for closing comments. Perfect. Well, thank you so much for joining us for the conference call for the first quarter.

We will be reporting our second quarter results on July 31, I think, or having our conference call then. In the meantime, you can always reach out to us, to Carmen, to Graham, to myself, and we’ll be happy to keep you informed of what’s going on with Amerigo. Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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