Earnings call transcript: ArcelorMittal Q2 2025 highlights strategic growth

ArcelorMittal’s Q2 2025 earnings call revealed a robust operational performance, driven by strategic investments and expansion in key markets, despite facing challenging global trade conditions. The company’s stock showed a modest premarket increase of 0.65%, reflecting cautious investor optimism. ArcelorMittal maintained its capital expenditure guidance, focusing on organic growth and decarbonization efforts.

Key Takeaways

• ArcelorMittal reported a Q2 EBITDA margin of $135 per ton.
• The company expects an additional $700 million in EBITDA from projects and M&A in 2025.
• A $500 million settlement with Votorantim will be paid over three years.
• Net debt rose above $8 billion, highlighting financial leverage.
• Strategic investments include a new electrical steel facility and expansion in India.

Company Performance

ArcelorMittal demonstrated strong performance in Q2 2025, with record shipments at its Calvert steel facility and ongoing expansion in India. The company’s strategic focus on high-value-added products and downstream capabilities positions it well in the North American and Indian markets. However, operational challenges in Mexico and market pressures in Europe and China present ongoing risks.

Financial Highlights

• EBITDA margin: $135 per ton
• Additional EBITDA expected: $700 million from projects and M&A
• Settlement payment: $500 million over three years
• Net debt: Above $8 billion

Outlook & Guidance

ArcelorMittal maintains its capital expenditure guidance of $4.5-5 billion, emphasizing its commitment to organic growth and decarbonization. The company anticipates gradual progress in its decarbonization efforts and potential trade protection measures in Europe. Future projects include a $1 billion investment in an electrical steel facility in Alabama, with production expected in 2027.

Executive Commentary

"Our results continue to show structural improvements," stated CFO Genuino Christino, highlighting the company’s resilience amid market challenges. Christino also emphasized, "We are well positioned to move forward with projects despite challenging market conditions," underscoring confidence in ArcelorMittal’s strategic direction. Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, noted, "The doubling of capacity will add 150% to the normalized profitability," reflecting the anticipated benefits of ongoing expansions.

Risks and Challenges

• European market demand remains stagnant, with low inventory levels.
• Chinese market faces export challenges and potential capacity restructuring.
• Operational issues in Mexico resulted in $40 million in losses.
• Rising net debt levels could impact financial flexibility.
• Global trade uncertainties may affect future growth prospects.

ArcelorMittal’s Q2 2025 earnings call highlighted a strategic focus on growth and innovation, with significant investments in high-value markets. While the company navigates a complex global landscape, its commitment to structural improvements and strategic expansions positions it for future success.

Full transcript - ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT) Q2 2025:

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal’s performance and progress during the first half of 2025. Leading today’s call will be our CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation in detail, but we published it this morning on our website for your information. I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers that are on slide number 25 of that presentation. As normal, Genuino will make some opening remarks before moving directly to the Q&A session. To ask a question, please do press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue. Over to you, Genuino.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today’s call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. Beginning with safety, a core value for our company, we are less than one year into what we know will be at least a three-year transformation to implement the six core safety recommendations post the audit last year. Already, our enhanced safety assurance model has improved oversight and consistency. I’m encouraged by the progress we are making and the determination that I see in my colleagues to drive lasting change and achieve our targets as quickly as possible. Now, I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements. Second quarter EBITDA increased as expected, and at $135 per ton, our margin continues to show that the benefits of our asset optimization and growth strategy are delivering structurally higher margins.

Our strategic projects have good momentum. Liberia posted a record volume quarter. Our India Renewables project is delivering all the performance that was expected and more, and the commissioning of our new value-added capacity at Hazira is underway. Our strategic projects, together with the impacts of recently completed M&A, are an important support to our EBITDA profile. Compared to the 2024 base, the impact on future normalized EBITDA is now expected to be $2.1 billion, a third of which is due to be captured in the current financial year. ArcelorMittal has a unique asset portfolio, and this creates significant optionality for high-return strategic investments. I’m confident that we can maintain our growth momentum. My second point is that full ownership of Calvert is a very positive development for ArcelorMittal. Calvert is the premier steelmaking facility in the United States and a cornerstone of our North America franchise.

Calvert achieved a new shipment record in the second quarter, 10% higher than the first quarter and 10% above the same period last year. Since 2014, Calvert has invested over $2 billion in improving its asset base and product portfolio. The biggest investment has been the new state-of-the-art EAF, which is ramping up right now and could not have been better timed. Along with the new seven-year domestic flood supply contract, Calvert’s highest quality finished steel will meet U.S. melted and poured requirements, and we will continue to invest in the U.S. Our project to build a new world-class non-grain-oriented electrical steel facility in Alabama is well underway. This will be a $1 billion investment over the next few years, with first production anticipated in 2027. Of course, we have the second EAF at Calvert, a decision on which will be taken as part of our next capital allocation cycle.

My final point is on Europe, where we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure. We have the promise of a trade defense mechanism that protects the domestic industry and a carbon border that truly delivers a level playing field. A lot still needs to be actioned over the second half of this year. If the European Commission delivers, then our business should be in a far better position to deliver the margins and returns on capital it is capable of when not suppressed by unfair trade. Added to this more favorable mix is the prospect of demand support from low interest rates and higher investment in defense and infrastructure. Our market position and product capabilities place ArcelorMittal favorably to capitalize on the opportunities the strengths should create. Putting this all together, ArcelorMittal is in a strong position both operationally and financially.

Our optimized asset portfolio is delivering structurally higher margins, and with the outlook supported by our strategic growth projects, this should continue. The value we are creating is being compounded by our share buybacks. Over the past four and a half years, we have bought back 38% of our equity. Each ArcelorMittal share now represents a greater proportion of our capacity, a bigger share of our leading franchise businesses, a larger stake in our growth projects, and a greater ownership of our unique business in India. With that, Daniel, I believe we can start the Q&As.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thank you, Genuino. Just to remind everybody, if you do want to join the queue to ask a question, please do press star 11 on your telephone keypad. We do have a good queue in front of us already, and we will take the first question, please, from Alan at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alan. Please go ahead and ask your question.

Alan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is on the EBITDA building blocks into Q3 2025. Can you walk us through the different moving parts, including the ASP in Europe and North America, the dollar impact of tariffs on North America, and the power outage impact on Lázaro Cárdenas in Mexico, if you don’t mind? That’s my first question. Thanks.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thank you, Alain. I will start with your second question on Mexico. As usual, Daniel will walk you through the moving blocks. In quarter two, as you can see and as highlighted in our earnings, Alain, we faced operational issues with one of our transformers. That impacted the production of our EAF. That has been restored. The EAF, as you know, that’s our most important part of the business, that’s the flat business. That is up and running again. Nevertheless, as we disclosed in our MDA of our NAFTA segment, we experienced $40 million of losses because of the operational issues in quarter two. We have subsequently taken the decision to bring down the furnace that is producing for the long business for maintenance. This furnace will most likely continue to be down for the next couple of months as we perform this maintenance.

That is why we will continue to see shipments at the same level as you see in quarter two coming from Mexico. We will get back the shipments from flat, but you will see a reduction in shipments because the furnace is down. Quarter on quarter, shipments should be relatively stable from Mexico. Daniel, do you want to talk about the moving parts?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. I think what I’d like to do is just focus on the key moving parts, and we can get into any of these in more detail as you wish, Alain. I think as we look from the second quarter to the third quarter and the bridge between the two quarters, the first thing to be anticipating is the impact of normal seasonally lower volumes in the Europe segment. I think that’s going to be the key driver for Europe performance quarter to quarter, normal seasonality of volumes. The second factor to look out for is in the North America segment. Yes, we will see marginally higher Section 232 tariff costs, but that will be more than offset by the impacts of the Calvert consolidation.

The third factor I would be looking out for in the Q2 to Q3 bridge is the impact of lower volumes in the mining segment because we did see some volume catch-up in the second quarter, and that won’t then repeat into Q3. Mining volumes will sort of come down a little bit in Q3, but that should be the main impact in mining because so far, quarter to date, pricing is a little bit higher than last quarter. Those are the main three factors I would be thinking about in terms of the bridge from Q2 to Q3.

Alan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thank you. The cost at Mexico, should we assume still same cost Q on Q, or is there going to be an increase in the cost run rate because of the stoppage?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: That’s a good reference, Alain. The $40 million is a good reference.

Alan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thank you. Thank you. My second question is on Calvert. We can see the path to being slab self-sufficient in the U.S. at Calvert in the medium term, but in the short term, you’re still highly dependent on imported material for your slabs. How do you plan to mitigate the risk of tariffs should the current 50% level remain unchanged versus Mexico and Brazil? Will you be changing the flows? How will you change the mechanics of the business? Thank you.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: I think what is important, Alain, as you know well, we have the EAF that is ramping up, right? Then the new agreement that was signed with DuPont Steel and U.S. Steel for a new slab supply agreement will guarantee Calvert what it needs in terms of melted and poured materials in the United States. Of course, Calvert will still need to be importing slabs from either Brazil or Mexico. We don’t see that change in the near future. As you can see, a lot of the tariffs impact is kind of already captured in our Q2 results, right? As Daniel said, going forward, the increase, the incremental impact of tariffs is not so significant. As you can see in the results of Calvert, it’s really exceptional, right? The run rate is getting very close to $900 million. Calvert is doing extremely well, record levels of shipments in quarter two.

Where we really, Calvert is not really the concern. I think the concern at this point is really the flows from Canada to the U.S., right? That’s where we see the biggest impact today.

Alan, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thank you. Very clear.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Alain. We’ll move to the next question, which we will take from Ephrem at Citigroup. Hi, Ephrem. Please go ahead.

Thanks. On the Calvert second year, as you said, in the next capital allocation cycle, you would be considering, could you be a bit more specific at the time of that? Is it 2026, or is it second half of 2025? The second question regarding your comment on record iron ore shipments from Liberia, I think it should be doing about $5 million per quarter at full ramp-up. It looks like you’re doing close to $3 million in the second quarter. Is that correct? How should we think about the contribution margin of the additional tons, I suppose, at a $100 benchmark iron ore? You’ll be getting about $80 per ton additional contribution margin given the cost base is relatively fixed. Thank you.

Yeah. So, Ephrem, the first part of your question, the second year, I think we have been very clear that that is something that we see as natural for the next step for Calvert. We are advancing our studies, and I’m sure we’re going to be in a position to update you more. Most likely, I would say, in our quarter four results. I’m not saying that there will be a decision at that point in time. We are progressing our studies, and this is something that just makes a lot of sense for us, given everything that we are seeing. Of course, as we have been discussing, a lot of investments have already been made in anticipation of the second year, right? CapEx-wise, it should also make sense to move forward with this. Timing-wise, you’re going to need to bear with us for a little longer.

Liberia, our guidance for Liberia this year is 10 million tons of shipments. You can see that the run rate in H1 is about 8 million tons. We have commissioned the first line. It’s the first line of the concentrate, it’s running. That’s about 5 million tons. We’re going to be commissioning the other two lines as we progress now in the second half. In quarter three, the level of shipments that you’re going to see is going to be largely the same. You’re not going to see an increase in shipments in quarter three, but you’re going to see already a changing mix. You’re going to see more synthetic feed concentrate being shipped out of Liberia and less DSO. In quarter four, with the three lines running, then we’re going to be at higher levels of shipments.

We are comfortable at this point that we’re going to be achieving our 10 million tons guidance. With the new product, you should also expect that profitability will increase, and we will detail that more as we talked about quarter three.

Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Ephrem. We will move now to take the next question from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, Boris.

Boris, Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux: Hi. Hello. Thank you for taking my question. The first question would be on tariffs. I’ve read a headline where you were quoting, estimating the impact of tariffs to $150 million. That means there is something like $50 million of mitigating measures. Can you share the way you mitigate those impacts and just confirm that the impact in Q1 was around $130 million already? Regarding CapEx, just back to that question on the second EAF, how confident are you to maintain your CapEx envelope of $4.5 to $5 billion over time? Thank you.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, sure. I can confirm, Boris. In quarter two, we incurred about $140 million in costs with Section 232 tariffs. As we discussed in Q1, the expectation was for this number to be lower, about $100 million. We had the increase in tariffs impacting us from the beginning of June. What we have been doing really is, as you can imagine, the whole organization, the whole Canadian team, they have been doing a tremendous job looking for opportunities to mitigate the impacts. That’s why we’re confident here to guide for a number that is lower than otherwise we would have expected when we reported Q2 number. That’s the $150 million. The net net from one quarter to the other is in the range of $10 million, right? What we have been doing is, of course, discussing with our customers on sharing tariffs, looking at our cost base.

A significant amount of work being done there to make sure that we can continue to supply the OEMs. As you know, what we sell into the US is high-value-added materials, important not only for us, but also for our customers. That’s our focus to make sure that we can maintain our market share with the OEMs and make sure that we can also generate big profit with this. Volumes. There is a second part of your question, Boris. With the second EAF, how are we comfortable that we can manage? Look, I mean, we are finishing this year a number of projects, right? We guided for this year to spend between $1.3 and $1.5 billion with growth projects. You should not forget that we’re going to be completing this year Liberia, which has consumed a significant amount of the envelope.

We’ll be completing some of the smaller projects in Brazil as well. We’re going to be making room for new projects that I’m sure we’re going to be in a position to discuss together with our results in quarter four.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Boris. I think we’ll move to the next question, which we’ll be taking from Tom at Barclays.

Yes. Hi, thanks for taking the question.

Yeah. Hi.

Sorry, I’m going to have to come back to it. Just on tariffs one more time. Just to sort of check our understanding on why there’s so little increase, I suppose, into Q3, even though from June, you’ve only had one month basically of 50% tariffs. You’ve then had the consolidation of Calvert. As I understand, you used to be sending about 2 million tons of slab every year from mostly Brazil into the Calvert JV. Those costs used to be shared with Nippon, but now you’re basically absorbing 100% of those costs. Are you basically just saying most of these tariff costs have just been passed on to customers, and that’s why you’re not absorbing any more? Is that true out of Calvert as well? That’s the first question.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Look, Tom, as I said, I would just reiterate, I think we have been working on mitigating these impacts, right? As you can imagine, a lot of initiatives, a lot of discussions with our customers. We’re going to be sharing tariffs with customers as well. That’s why, net net, the increase should not be so significant. That is not.

That thought process around the slab movement, that’s correct as well, right? You’re now basically absorbing all of those slab tariff costs instead of sharing it with Nippon.

That’s right. There are two things, but just make sure that we don’t mix them, right? One is the supply agreement with U.S. Steel facilities. That has nothing to do, it’s supply within the United States, so there are no tariffs there, right? The tariffs, of course, will be applicable for imports from either Brazil or Mexico. As you can see, as we talked about, when you see the performance of Calvert, you can see that the profitability of that facility is actually increasing. I should remind you that even before, the costs of the slabs that were being supplied to Calvert, they were under our responsibility, under ArcelorMittal responsibility. That’s why we were capturing already part of the EBITDA in our segment, as we explained in our release, just to make sure that is clear.

Okay. Fair enough. Maybe just moving on to Europe. We’ve seen some attempted price hikes through Q3. We’re seeing a little bit of raw material cost inflation with iron ore and coking coal. Maybe just some color in general on what you’re seeing in the European market at the moment. Are you seeing any sort of inventory build ahead of CBAM and safeguard replacements, or are you seeing still quite a slow market? Just curious how you see prices sort of developing in the second half. Thank you.

Yeah. The dynamics, I mean, we talked about the fact that demand in Europe at best has been moving sideways. We feel that, and that remains a positive aspect, that inventory levels in the system, we believe they continue to be low. What is interesting, of course, is the fact that we’re going to have CBAM in whatever form kicking in from Jan and the promise of revised safeguards. That creates different dynamics as well, right? If you are importing material and given the long lead times, you’re going to start to worry about some of these factors, right? That is positive for the domestic mills. Right now, because of the summer, of course, activities are slow. I think we are about to see in Europe, as I said at the beginning of my opening remarks, some important developments, right?

We are all waiting to see really the actions that the Commission will pass into legislation. It’s encouraging. Also, the agreement between the U.S. and Europe with regard to coming together to find ways to ring-fence the industry against the biggest issue that we face today, that is, of course, the overcapacity in China, right? I think that is also something, and of course, we don’t have yet the details. The fact that the problem is acknowledged and there is a goodwill to try to address it, that should be extremely positive for our business.

Okay. Clear. Thank you, Dr. Novak.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Tom. We’ll move now to the next question, which we’ll take from Dominic at JPMorgan. Hi, Dominic. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my question. My questions also relate to Europe. I just wondered if I could maybe push you a little bit more on safeguards in terms of what you would think would be acceptable for the industry as a whole. I guess I’m also interested in the timing of the European Commission announcement with your recent indication that you’re going to restart the volumes at Dunkirk. Could you just maybe give us some timing? Is that an expression of confidence in the market in the second half? I’m just really interested in a bit more detail on how you think about safeguards evolving in the months ahead.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Regarding safeguards, we, and by we, I mean the industry to Europe fair, the request is that we limit through our quarters the level of imports to a market share that is more consistent with prior years, which is about 15% of the market share, right? That is the request. As we know, last year, in 2024, the market share of imports was as high as 27%, right? That is significant. If implemented, it will be a significant boost to utilization rates of the steel industry in Europe and will allow investments to happen. That is going to be extremely positive for the industry in Europe. Of course, above the quarter, we believe that we should have also 50% of tariffs mirroring what we have under Section 232, right? Coming to Dunkirk, Dunkirk was just a normal reline, which we completed during the second quarter.

We had built slab inventories before, so you should not read into it. We just completed the reline, we brought the funnels up, and we are running again. Nothing really, just normal business there.

Okay. Then just second question, really helpful on the CapEx reiteration at the $4.5 to $5 billion. I guess in light of the question and your comments, could you maybe just give us again an updated comment on how you’re thinking about decarbonization CapEx longer term in Europe at the present moment?

Our expectation is that this is going to happen gradually. Dominic, this is a transition that will take decades to be completed. What we have indicated is that provided that we have the right policies in place, and by that we mean we have CBAM, we have effective trade protection, we have competitive power prices, then we are ready to invest. We have indicated that we are prepared to move ahead with significant investment at Dunkirk, with a large EAF. That is what we would see going forward, that we will progressively, provided that we have the conditions, keep investing in new EAFs. I would remind you that we are investing today. We are spending about $300 million in decarb projects. It happened, we invested this amount in 2024, and we have a similar amount this year. We are executing or building a new EAF in Spain, Gijón.

We are investing in Sestao. That is 1.6 million tons EAF. Flat business. We are progressing. Of course, we should not forget the renewable investments. I think as a company, we are well placed. We have the DRI facilities. We are one of the largest producers in the world. I think we believe that we are progressing quite well.

Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Dominic. We’ll move now to the next question, which we’re going to take from Max at Oddo. Please go ahead, Max.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have a first question. It’s from the HBI unit in Texas. Can you shed more light on your procurement there? I understand a lot comes from Brazil, and it’s not taxed at 50%. Are you able to shift the sourcing, or are you facing some extra costs there?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thank you, Max. We have the flexibility, Max, because we can also bring materials from our own mines in Canada, right? I believe that, to be honest, I believe that it has been included on the list of exceptions. I have to double-check to be 100% sure, but that was my reading. It came out yesterday, right? I need to confirm that. I think that was because pig iron is now for sure not, and I think, I don’t know, is also excluded. Daniel, unless you have some more.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, that’s the case, Genuino. I think these things can change. It’s important, to your first point, to have that flexibility that should something change, we can source from a different mine within our own system, and that would be Canada.

Okay, that’s clear. Second question is on M&A. Cleveland Cliffs has put up a for sale sign in its latest results call. I know you don’t like to comment on specific targets, but how are you thinking of further expansion in the US, notably to address the mismatch you currently have in terms of organic versus M&A?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Max, yeah, you’re right. We don’t really comment on M&A. I would just say that the U.S. is and has always been a very important market for the company, right? As you can see, our investments covered the new electrical steels plant that we are investing in. We do have the ambition to keep growing in the United States, and we have plans in place and being developed. More specifically on M&A, I’m not going to be able to comment.

Okay. Very nice. Just the last one, it’s on India. You’re flagging again your ambitions there to grow even more, notably through a new greenfield facility. At the same time, we are seeing prices in India quite depressed at just a few tens of dollars of premium to the Chinese market. Wouldn’t it be wiser to wait to have, I mean, a better defense system there to potentially start new investments? Clearly, the 12% of safeguard tariffs we’ve had for a few months are not enough.

Yeah. I think the industry would agree with you. I think the views are mobilized. Look, I mean, we have to look beyond this, right? Structurally, the Indian market is very attractive, right? It’s highly concentrated. It’s a market that is growing 7%, 8% every year. If you want to continue to be relevant in that market and you want to keep your market share, increase your market share, you have to grow with the market. As you can see in our results this quarter as well, the results already doubled, so back to $200 million plus. You can argue that yet not enough, but we have not yet seen the benefits of some of these investments that we talked about, the downstream. Our automotive complex is going to be commissioned, part of it now towards the second half of the year.

We’ll continue to improve the mix of products that we’re going to be able to offer in the Indian market. We remain very excited about the opportunities provided by the Indian market. Right now, the focus is on completing the expansion in Hazira and, of course, prepare the ground for future expansions. As you know, this is a long process in India, and it’s important that we continue to work so that we can, when the moment is right, move forward.

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Max. We’ll move now to take the next question from Andy at UBS. Hi, Andy. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Can you hear me okay?

Yes.

Cool. Excellent. Just to follow up on M&A, no specific targets, but obviously, the net debt after Calvert’s now back above $8 billion, you used to sort of talk about a $7 billion target, albeit, obviously, the business is very different now. I mean, how are you thinking about leverage more broadly around the potential for further M&A? Does this rule out large-scale M&A, things like Vallourec or, I mean, the Cliffs? Without being specific, are you thinking you can do something large, or are we talking potentially small incremental stuff from here or just focusing on some of the organic growth projects, which are obviously pretty numerous in your portfolio? How are you thinking about that more big picture?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: I can say that we have a good pipeline of projects that we can execute organically, right? That has been the focus, continues to be the focus. Specifically on, I should also say that our message on Valorec, we made the same, right? We are happy with the performance of the company. We are happy with our state. We have no intention there to increase it. When it comes to the debt, $8 billion. First of all, I think we feel very comfortable. As I’m sure you have seen, we were just upgraded by S&P, right? The Triple B flat, showing the progress, all the progress that we have been discussing, acknowledged by the rating agencies as well. We should not forget that with these investments, M&A, we are adding a significant amount of extra EBITDA to the business, right? You see in our bridge, in our debt.

This year, $700 million of extra EBITDA coming from projects, but also M&A. That’s how we are looking. Very comfortable with the capital structure of the company.

Okay. Just one other follow-up on the settlement that you put in, one of the one-offs for the EBIT in the quarter, this Votorantim. When do you actually expect to make sort of cash payments on that settlement, and how is that phased?

It will happen over three years.

Okay. Didn’t?

There is one down payment, and then you divide it by four. You have one on signing and three other payments in three years. It’s going to happen over three years.

Okay. That’s in line with the EBIT loss that you booked on that settlement, right, in cash?

If you look at the footnote, you’re going to see that the amount is $500 million, right? What you see in our P&L is the difference because we had already some provisions. That’s why you see a delta between the P&L and the footnote. That’s about $100 million. The settlement is $500 million.

Okay, that’s clear. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Andy. We have time for, I think, two or three more questions. The first we’re going to take from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian.

Yeah. Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is actually on your project pipeline. I saw in the footnotes that there are some projects which are delayed. I was wondering, is this purely due to permitting? Is this also a response to the current environment? Are there any further shifts or delays which you’re currently at least looking at? Maybe you could also give us an update on the EBITDA cadence. I think the chart here in the presentation deck seems to be changed. There must be something which is compensating for the delay there. That’s my first one.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Basically, you have Mardik in north of France. That’s the electrical steel project there, Bastian. As we write there, every time you have a brownfield, you always face the risk that you may find out something that you could not have anticipated. That’s one of the reasons. In Mexico, in one of the mines, it was Tusha. The delay is primarily because of licenses that delayed some of the moving of the equipment. These are not very significant movements, I would say. They are quite minor. That’s why you don’t really see a significant, any important change in the EBITDA bridge coming from projects and M&A. Daniel, anything further?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: No, I would only reinforce those points, Genuino. Yeah, no further additional comments.

there no other projects which you’re currently looking to move, just given the current economic environment, I guess?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: No, not at all. I think that’s a good point because despite the challenging market conditions, we feel that the company is very well positioned, right, to move forward with the projects. As we talked about, this year, we’re going to be completing a number of projects, right? As you can see, we’re going to have another significant pickup in EBITDA also in 2026. We want just to keep that momentum. On the contrary, you should see us announcing more projects, as we talked about in our Q4 results.

Okay. Got you. My second one is on your Brazilian slab strategy. I guess a few years ago, you obviously bought CSP, which is basically a slab business. You still have Sierra Vitória, which is basically long slabs used to supply both, I guess, into Calvert or into the U.S. and North American market. Now, given that there is obviously a pretty long list of capacity projects in the U.S. at the moment, I mean, you’ve just built like the 1.5 million ton a year. If you’re talking about a second one, what’s going to be your strategy here for the Brazilian slab capacity where you’re still long?

Yeah. I think that’s a good question, Bastian. We are very well positioned in the Brazilian market. First of all, I think it’s important to acknowledge that Brazil is growing, right? The flat demand is growing, and it will continue to grow. We are well positioned because we have the crude steel capacity, right? We don’t need to invest in developing or building a new upstream. If you look at some of our competitors there, that’s the real differential that we have to grow with that market, right? That’s one of the possibilities that we have. We should not forget also that Bassen and Tuparan, they produce some of the highest quality slabs in the world, right? You’re not going to find that quality of slab everywhere. We feel that we’re going to be always in a position to market the volumes that we have from there.

Okay, very clear. Thanks so much.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Bastian. We’ll move now to the next question, which we’re going to take from Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan.

Tristan, Analyst, BNP Paribas: Yes, hi. Thank you for squeezing me in. Just two. The first one on China. What is your take on the recent official commentary on potential capacity restructuring? I mean, do you believe significant capacity cuts like in 2015, 2016 are really on the table? Also, you kept a stable demand outlook for the year in China despite what I think was pretty weak H1. What are you baking into H2, and why would you have a more constructive setup for H2? That’d be my first question.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Do you want to take that one, Daniel?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, absolutely. I think relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year, yes, in China, they’re obviously seeing some export impacts from the reciprocal tariffs environment, but they are finding opportunities, obviously new export opportunities. Domestically, demand is being supported by the infrastructure spend and the efforts to stimulate domestic consumption. That’s the reason why we’ve not significantly changed our projections for Chinese demand relative to what we’d published back in February. I think on the prospect of capacity reform, obviously, this is something that we have been championing, something that is very obvious that this needs to occur. China has a capacity imbalance. It’s leading to very depressed profitability within the domestic industry. It’s leading to aggressive exports at very low pricing. As we talked about in previous questions, it is a significant source of unfair competition for the rest of the global industry.

Reform needs to happen. Your question, obviously, is will it happen and over what sort of timeframe? All the statements that we’ve read over the last couple of months would give you encouragement that things will improve. I think if you look at the recent production statistics, it would suggest that things can improve. However, exports do remain very elevated. I think the only thing that we can really be looking out for is this ring-fencing that Emmanuel Caprais talked about previously. That’s what’s required. We can’t assume that China will reform its industry in due course. Therefore, the other regions need to appropriately ring-fence their industries to make sure that they’re not damaged by that excess capacity and unfair trade.

Tristan, Analyst, BNP Paribas: All right. That’s helpful. Thank you. My second question is just going back to the steel action plan. There’s been a specific proposal to cut quotas by 40%, 50%. Do you think there’s a real probability that the European Commission will take such action? How confident are you? Basically, what is different this time in your conversation with the Commission? For instance, if we look at it, the fact that Germany was not part of the recent proposal could indicate that there is not a united front from all the member states. Any color there, that’d be great.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Tristan, I think we can only wait and see finally what comes out. Of course, we are engaged through our associations, so we are in very close dialogue with the authorities, governments, the Commission. Encouragingly, France published recently a position paper in which they also defend these levels of quotas, right? I agree with you. In Europe, it’s challenging. That’s why we have to really wait and see what finally gets converted into legislation, right? I guess we will know very soon. I mean, the promise is to deliver the new proposal after summer. I think we should know relatively soon.

Tristan, Analyst, BNP Paribas: All right. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Tristan. We’ll move to our last question, which we will take from Matt at Goldman Sachs. Hi, Matt. Please go ahead.

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in there. My first question is just on India. Encouraging to see those tariffs in April positively contribute to your margins. I have to say the quota uplift was quite impressive. My question is just, what was the exit margin at the end of the quota on a per ton basis, if you happen to have that to hand? How should we think about it to go forward in light of both the tariffs and commissioning of the downstream value-added products?

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: I’m not sure that I got the first part of the question, Daniel.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Would you like me.

That was just on the.

Yeah.

Would you like me to repeat it? Yeah, sure. Okay. My question was just the margins that you’ve seen, the quarter-on-quarter uplift in India has been quite impressive. The question is just, what was your exit margin at the end of June? How should we think about the go-forward, just given the effect of the tariff, but also the commissioning of the downstream? Yeah.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, for sure. Perhaps I talked about the moving parts there in a little bit more detail. Moving forward, for quarter three, I think it will address the first part of your question. Our expectation is for profitability to be largely stable compared to what you see in quarter two, which I think addresses some of your points. It is stable. The downstream, really, of course, there will be a good contribution in terms of extra margin that we’re going to be able to print. More importantly, it will open up a new avenue in terms of product offering in the Indian market, right? Both us and Nippon, as you know, auto is a franchise of our companies, and it’s a market that we’re going to be able then to address strongly once we complete these investments. As you know, these are profitable products.

I will not get into specifics, but just to give you a flavor of the importance of completing these projects for the future of the profitability of AMNSI. Daniel, if you have anything to add because you were there recently as well.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, absolutely, Genuino. It is an important part. When we took investors to India to see the expansion of the capacity and the new value-added capacity that you were just talking about, I think this is all a very important part of the transformation of the business. As we go from the current capacity, as we add the two new blast furnaces, as we add the coke capacity, we add these new finishing capabilities, higher-value product opportunities, this will really transform the profitability of our business in India. You shouldn’t think that the doubling of capacity will double profitability. Really, you should think that the doubling of capacity underway will add 150% to the normalized profitability. A lot of that additional profitability will come through this higher-value product mix.

That’s helpful. Thank you. My last question is just on COVID. Congrats on the first slab. How should we think about the ramp-up from here to the 1.5 million tons by mid-2026? If you can give any color sort of on the margin uplift alongside that ramp-up. Thanks.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. I mean, we talked about, I think it was in the previous quarter. It should take us about a year to get to full capacity there, right? We had a couple of weeks of delays to have the first slab casted. Our expectation is to get to the end of the year with a run rate in the range of 60%. From there, we will continue to ramp up. By the end of the second quarter next year, we should be at full capacity.

That’s great. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Perhaps just to add in terms of the margin profitability, if you think about the cost of the EAF, it should be very similar to the Brazil slab cost. When you think about the impact on our business, that should be a pretty good guide for you.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Daniel.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. That was our last question, Genuino. Over back to you.

Genuino Christino, CFO, ArcelorMittal: Okay. Thank you, everyone. Before we close, I want to reiterate my messages from the beginning of the call. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements, and this is expected to continue. Secondly, our North America franchise is well positioned. We now own 100% of Calvert, the best steel facility in the U.S. This is the cornerstone of our franchise, and the new EAF, together with the new slab supply agreement, will ensure we meet melted and pool requirements. Third, we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure in Europe. If the European Commission delivers a new trade defense mechanism and an effective CBAM, our business can flourish. ArcelorMittal is well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities created by defense and infrastructure investments.

Finally, to repeat what I have said in recent calls, returning capital to shareholders at the bottom of the cycle while continuing to invest in growth is clear evidence of the progress ArcelorMittal has made and demonstrates that our company can deliver value through all aspects of the steel cycle. With that said, I will close today’s call. If you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Wish you all a happy summer. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

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