Earnings call transcript: Bpost NV Q2 2025 sees 5.43% stock surge post-earnings

Bpost NV (market cap: €542.24M) reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing a positive financial performance that resulted in a notable 5.43% increase in its stock price. The company achieved a group operating income of €1,092 million, marking a 10.5% year-over-year increase. Challenges such as North American contract terminations and declining mail volumes were noted. The stock price rose by €0.12 to reach €2.33, nearing its 52-week high of €2.68. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears to be trading near its Fair Value.

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Key Takeaways

• Bpost NV’s Q2 operating income rose by 10.5% year-over-year.
• Stock price increased by 5.43% following the earnings announcement.
• Challenges include North American contract terminations and declining domestic mail volumes.
• The company targets the higher end of its EBIT guidance for 2025.

Company Performance

Bpost NV demonstrated solid performance in Q2 2025, with a 10.5% increase in group operating income to €1,092 million. Despite this growth, the company faced a 9% decrease in operating income at a constant perimeter, primarily due to contract terminations in North America and reduced press revenue. The company’s focus on innovation, such as the launch of Radial Fast Track and expansion of b-boxes, is aimed at countering these challenges.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: €1,092 million, up 10.5% year-over-year.
• Adjusted EBIT: €58.3 million, representing a 5.3% margin.
• First half EBIT: Approximately €100 million.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Bpost NV’s stock price increased by 5.43%, closing at €2.33. The company has demonstrated strong momentum with a 16.81% price return over the past six months. This surge reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to manage its challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities, such as expanding its e-commerce lanes and optimizing operations in the US.

Outlook & Guidance

Bpost NV is targeting the higher end of its EBIT guidance range of €150-180 million for 2025, despite anticipating a challenging second half due to peak season complexities. Analysts forecast earnings per share of €0.39 for 2025, supporting the company’s positive outlook. The company remains focused on operational efficiency and cost management to navigate these challenges.

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Executive Commentary

CEO Chris Peters expressed confidence in reaching the higher end of the EBIT guidance range, despite uncertainties. CFO Philippe Darcian noted the higher costs associated with peak execution, indicating a cautious approach to managing expenses. Peters also highlighted the proactive efforts of the sales team in seeking new opportunities.

Risks and Challenges

• North American contract terminations impacting revenue.
• Declining domestic mail volumes, down 12.4% in Q2.
• Persistent headwinds in North America affecting overall performance.
• Consumer confidence in Europe remains low, potentially impacting demand.
• Peak season complexities could increase operational costs.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of de minimis regulation on local fulfillment opportunities, the potential for volume recovery post-strikes, and strategic initiatives in the 3PL Europe and cross-border segments. The company remains cautious about fully recovering volumes but is optimistic about ongoing strategic efforts.

Full transcript - bpost NV (BPOST) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, hello, and welcome to the bPost Group Second Quarter twenty twenty five Analyst Conference Call. On today’s call, we have Mr. Chris Peters, CEO and Mr. Philippe Darcian, CFO. Please note, this call is being recorded.

For the duration of the call, your line will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. I will now hand over to your host, Mr. Chris Peters, CEO, to begin today’s Please go ahead, sir.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to all of you, and thank you for joining us. I’m pleased to present our second quarter results as CEO of Bitos Group. With me, I have Philippe Darcien, our CFO, as well as Antoine Lebec from investor relations.

We posted the materials on our website this morning. We will walk you through the presentation, and we’ll then take your questions. As always, two questions each would ensure everyone gets the chance to be addressed in the upcoming hour. Philippe, over to you for the financials. I’ll then come back with the financial outlook and a follow-up on some of our strategic priorities for 2025.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: Thank you very much, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Welcome. As you can see on the highlight on page three, our group operating income for Q2 stood at €1,092,000,000 and increased year over year by 10.5%. At constant perimeter, excluding the CHF one hundred and ninety five million consolidation impact of Stasi, our operating income decreased by 9% or CHF 91,000,000, mainly driven by the following factors: Persistent headwinds in North America following contract termination announced in ’24 and in the earlier part of this year.

Lower press revenue driven by the new press contract that came into effect in July, combined with decline in domestic mail against high comps in 2024. Our group adjusted EBIT came at EUR58.3 million with a margin of 5.3% or EUR37.7 million excluding the EUR20.6 million EBIT contribution from Stasi. On a like for like basis, this reflects a year on year decline of CHF20.1 million. At constant perimeter, with the exception of our Benel Last Mile segment where EBIT is down, primarily driven by press as lower revenue have a significant impact on profitability, all our other segments are growing, notably supported by continued margin actions at Radial US where we managed to absorb the revenue decline and maintain a stable EBIT. More broadly, at Bipost Group level, the results we are presenting today are in line with our expectations.

Before diving into the financial performance of our business unit, you will note on slide four that below EBIT, our financial result decreased by million. This is mainly due to four factors, most of them being non cash. Within the cash item, we know that high interest expense reflecting the increase in the debt following our bonds issuance in October and mid June this year, and lower interest income driven by lower money market rates and a lower cash balance following the acquisition of Stasi in August. Together, these factors account for roughly between CHF 10,000,000 and CHF 15,000,000. As a reminder, following our Capital Market Day, we successfully issued a CHF750 million bond in mid June in anticipation of the CHF650 million bond maturing in less than twelve months.

Through a cash tender offer, have already repurchased just under 30% of this bond. The remaining amount would be repaid next year using the proceeds temporarily placed in money market instruments, securing a positive net carry compared to the coupon of the maturing bond. Most of the variation in the financial result is linked to non cash item, including unrealized FX impact mainly on our USD intercompany loans and the absence of last year higher IAS 2019 results. Let’s move now to the details of our three segments. I’m on page five with the last mile segment.

We see that revenue declined by €40,000,000 to €536,000,000 Domestic mail recorded around €42,000,000 decline in revenue, of which 22,000,000 comes from the press, mainly due to new contract with the editors following the end of the press concession in June. Excluding press, Mail recorded a sharp revenue and volume contraction this quarter, mainly due to a base effect as last year performance was uplifted by notably the European, federal and regional ex elections. Mail recorded an underlying volume decline of minus 12.4% for the quarter compared to only minus 3% last year. The decline in main volume led to a revenue impact of €30,000,000 overall, though this was partially offset by a positive price and mix impact of plus 4.1% equating to €10,000,000. As a result, the domestic mail revenue decreased by 8% or roughly €20,000,000 year over year.

On Parcels, our revenue increased by 4,000,000 or plus 3.1% year on year, reflecting a volume growth of 4.1% and a negative price mix effect of minus 1% this quarter. On the volume side, the reported 4.1% actually correspond to an underlying growth of 1.6% when adjusting last year for the volume loss called of the April strikes in 2024. Over the past months, this growth has been mainly driven by the outperformance of marketplace and strong momentum in apparel, supported by favorable weather condition in June year. As for price mix, it stood at minus 1% this quarter. When adjusted for commercial one offs, it’s in the low single digit range, consistent with our full year guidance.

Revenue from our other activities, including retail, value added services and personal logistics declined by EUR2 million year over year, mainly due to the repricing of state services, while Dana Group’s revenue remained nearly stable. Let’s move to the P and L on Last Mile on page six. Our total operating income decreased by EUR37 million or minus 6.2%. And on the cost side, our OpEx, including G and A, slightly declined by 0.7% or EUR4 million. This mainly reflects lower FTE resulting from a lower mail and press volume and efficiency gains, notably with the resignation after the upward strikes of the organization in our distribution routes and in retail offices.

But on the other end, some other higher salary costs per FTE with a plus 3.4% year on year increase, driven by salary taxation in June 24 and March 25. Starting next quarter, our performance will be assessed on a like for like basis following the end of the press concession in June. This quarter, however, the minus million decrease in adjusted EBIT is mainly attributable to the drop in price revenue and to a lesser extent to lower mail revenue against a strong comps prior year. Moving on to 3PL on page seven. 3PL revenues increased by CHF143 million overall, but declined by CHF54 million or minus 20% when excluding the CHF197 million contribution from Stasi consolidation in the quarter.

In 3PL Europe, Stasi’s revenue remained broadly in line versus last year. Radial and Active End sales were up 13% year over year, continuing the trend of previous quarters, fueled by customers onboarding as part as our international expansion efforts and upscaling activities targeting existing customers. In 3PL North America, revenue decreased by CHF59 million. At constant exchange rate, this correspond to a decrease of 23%, resulting from revenue churn from contract termination announced in 2024 and early twenty twenty five, and lower sales from existing customers, our so called same store sale, which offset the contribution from new customer launches, mostly coming from the radial fast track initiatives. Let’s move to the P and L on the 3PL on slide eight.

Excluding Stasi, while the total operating income decreased by 20%, our operating MD and A were down by 22%, primarily driven by lower variable OpEx in line with radial US revenue trend and a continued and stronger improvement in radial US variable contribution margin rate. ZCM increased by approximately 6% year over year, reaching its highest level to date and delivering a gain of EUR 10,000,000 this quarter compared to the same quarter the year before. At constant perimeter, our adjusted EBIT improved by EUR6 million year over year from minus EUR5.5 million to just breakeven in Q2, mainly reflecting Radial’s effective margin action despite a 23% top line drop. Regarding Stasi, the EBIT contribution came at CHF21 million with a margin of 10.6%. Moving on to cross border on page nine.

Cross border Europe revenue increased by CHF3 million or plus 3.4%. This growth was supported by solid volume increases from China across all key destinations, including Belgium, which helped offset adverse market condition in The UK. As in previous quarters, our top line in North America remains under pressure. Cross border North America revenue declined by 4,000,000 or minus 7% as Landmark Global continues to face volumes headwind, while the broader tariffs environment is slowing down existing business and delaying new business opportunities. Overall, our cross border operating income slightly increased by roughly 1%.

As shown on page 10, our OpEx and G and A decreased at the same time by 2.7%, driven by lower volume driven transportation costs, reflecting lower North American and UK volumes alongside improved transport rates. This quarter, we also benefited to a lesser extent from a favorable cost phasing, which is expected to reverse in the third quarter. Coupled with the productivity gains in North America, this resulted in a CHF5 million increase in EBIT. Moving on to Corporate segment on page 11. Adjusted EBIT improved by CHF3 million to minus CHF8 million, as lower consulting costs helped offset higher payroll costs driven by more FTEs and inflationary pressure from two salary indexation.

Then we move to the cash flow on slide 12. The net cash inflow in the quarter amounts to CHF482.5 million, mainly reflecting the bond issuance and the cash tender executed in June. Besides that, the main items to flag are the following: Cash flow from operating activities before change in working capital stood at CHF134 million and decreased by CHF30 million versus last year, mainly reflecting higher EBITDA and lower corporate tax payments. Change in working capital and provision amounted to minus million. The plus EUR4 million variance is primarily explained by the termination of the press concession in June.

As a reminder, under the former press concession, compensation was typically prepaid, whereas the revenue under the new press contract are now invoiced according to the standard billing cycles. This quarter also includes the impact of the settlement of some terminal tubes. The net cash outflow from investing activities totaled CHF27.5 million, driven by our CapEx for international e commerce logistics, parcels lockers in Belgium and capacity extension and our domestic fleet. This item constitute the main variation in our free cash flow. And in the net cash outflow from financing activities amounted to CHF500 million, mainly reflecting the insurance of the and the cash tender on the maturing bond, as well as the absence of dividend payment this year.

Chris, this now bring us to the outlook and our strategic priorities of 2025.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Thank you, Philippe. And we can happily announce an improved outlook. As you remember, February, with the results of ’24, we had an initial guidance of 150,000,000 to 180,000,000 of group EBIT. In May, at the Q1 results, we had an unchanged outlook but with a reduced exposure to the low end of the range. If we look today and we can announce an EBIT of around CHF 100,000,000 for the first half of the year, which is largely in line with the results with the plan that we had, it allows us now to reaffirm our guidance, but even also to say that we target now the higher end of the range.

Several elements will support in the second half of the year this result. Let’s zoom in maybe first in Radial US. Radial US, we see that we continue to reach productivity gains with an improved variable contribution margin. Secondly, we have increased our lease exposure there, so we have a better occupation rate. We’ll we’ll kick in as of July going forward.

And also in Belgium, there is some good news. So the reorganizations have been at full speed over the last quarter and will continue to do so, which makes sure that we have our cost under control for the Benin Last Mile activity. So, obviously, we are living in an uncertain world, but we are confident that we can actually target now the higher end of the range. If we then zoom in on our strategic initiatives at the Capital Markets Day, we already said that we were making speed that many of the pilots were in good shape. I’m not going to elaborate fully in this quarterly update, but at least give you some highlights on the progress that we’ve made.

If we zoom in on 3PL Europe, meanwhile, the new organization structure has been installed, and we continue to deliver synergies. As an example, you see that Stasi has already onboarded meanwhile one of its clients in the Polish market, so that moved from France to Poland as well. So we’re serving them now in multiple markets. And also Active Ants has now a client that they onboard for the French market recently. So that is actually also an element of cross selling that we do today, thanks to the bigger geographical reach that we have.

In US, Fast Track is really starting to create momentum. There are already six clients that we are actively serving while the product was only launched in March, and we have six other ones in the pipeline that will be onboarded soon and will also contribute to our revenue growth, obviously, in a market where same store sales is a challenge, but we see that the new product is really compensating for what we see happening there in The US. If we look in Belgium, we have launched already a year ago the renewal of our products. Most of them become more hybrid and more quality products. In the funeral notices, we see that the quality that we needed to achieve is achieved meanwhile.

So high quality product today with little complaints in it anymore. We also launched a new product for the license plates. The government has decided that the annulation of a license plate in a postal office is abandoned as a public service, and we launched a commercial product on that side. And also if you look at the side of the b boxes or locker product, we are soon reaching 2,000 lockers, and we still aim to have 2,500 of these b boxes installed by the end of the year. So we’re fully in momentum over there, and that’s quite important to better serve our clients both at the sender side as at the receiver side.

And as said before, many of the b two b pilots are in good shape. We already know to scale them up. If we look at cross border, we have been focusing on two new lanes, the reverse lane in North America from from Canada to The US. Seven new clients have signed up for that new lane. And also in Spain, we have a first large ecommerce player that has been onboarded as we speak and will start to deliver as of Q3 of this year.

And obviously, given the fact that the group is further expanding, we also realized more and more synergies at the transportation side. So as you can see, we are building up momentum. We’re preparing there where we can to scale up and to speed up. But obviously, this is all in an environment with some challenges, but we have an optimistic outlook going forward. And therefore, we are now ready to take any question that you would have.

Again, two questions each, please, so that everyone gets a chance to be addressed during the session. Operator, please open the lines.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Akhil D’Klurk from KBC Securities. Please go ahead.

Akhil D’Klurk, Analyst, KBC Securities: Yes. Hi. And thanks for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on the radial.

Can you give a bit more color on the fast track and what to expect in the second half and the phasing of it because it was still down more than 20% this quarter, but that should improve in the second half and then especially going into the start of 2026. So a bit more color on that. And maybe more important, you were able to keep your profitability in the second quarter at Radial U. S. Quite decent, even improving versus last year.

What should we expect for the second half year, especially that you have some real estate management and some benefits from the leasing coming into effect into the second half? Should we maybe even expect an improvement in the profitability in the second half for Radial U. S? So that would be my first question. And the second one is on the volumes the Parcel volumes in Belgium.

Of course, a bit of a tailwind compared to the strikes from last year. However, underlying, it’s still 1.6. You guided at the start of the year mid- to high single digits. Later, you came back and said it was maybe more around the mid single digit range. But evidently, still a bit of a catch up in the second half, which is more of a good comparable.

How do you expect to achieve this? Or what should accelerate this trend? Those would be my questions, please.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Okay. Thank you. Maybe on Fastrack, as said, we onboarded six clients, meanwhile, with a ACV, which is in the higher 40,000,000. Checking with Philippe, I think that’s that’s that’s correct. Mhmm.

And we have another six that signed, but then we still have to onboard. I think what is important is that you see that the time between signature and onboarding has become much shorter than what we had in the past. So there, we actually have a relatively optimistic view. Second thing is as well, we have in that new verticals portfolio, we have less cyclical clients. Means, of course, that we have less of an effect of a peak season in the end, but also that we continue to onboard clients throughout the peak season in this specific product.

If you look at the profitability, yes, indeed, the teams have done a really decent job in controlling the cost in the light of some client losses that we have announced earlier this year. And so I have to congratulate our teams over there for the good performance they had over there. However, I would say, like, I I would now not expect additional profitability coming in from that side anymore because they right sized the organization. They have managed the the the lease exposure. We don’t have in the pipeline at this point of time any further improvement coming from that side.

So you will still have a little bit of fast track effect, but the profitability improvement, we captured it fast. We could turn around it fast, but we don’t expect additional things coming in in the second half for radial. If you look at the volumes in Belgium, indeed, what you see is we could win back some of the client volumes. However, we still are, let’s say, impacted by some of those clients that went dual carrier as a consequence of the strike. So still working on capturing a higher share of wallet within those clients.

It’s a little bit, let’s say, difficult to have a a a precise view of that. For sure, it will not be at the higher single digit. It will be closer to somewhere in between where we were now and the middle single digit as announced. Our teams are working every day to win back those clients. But as you know, sometimes it take takes a little bit of time before we win back the full confidence of that.

So those volume forecast, I would be at the cautious side as we speak.

Akhil D’Klurk, Analyst, KBC Securities: Okay. That’s very clear. Thank you very much for the answers.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Mark Zwartsenberg from ING. Please go ahead.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Yeah. Good morning. One quick follow-up on Mikhail’s question. You mentioned the the onboarding of the six new clients at Radial with a 14,000,000 annual run rate. Is that correct?

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: For each

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Oh, no. No. No. No. The ACVs on the already onboarded clients in which as you you might have seen in some of the communication we’ve done, there’s one large client which is actually above the typical Fastrack size, which means that we actually have a higher 40,000,000 ACV of the already onboarded clients.

But the size of the clients that we have in the pipeline are typically the size of the client that we expect, which is, let’s say, in the range between two and a half and 5,000,000. That is a typical, let’s say, client in the fast track range. And so the six ones will not add the additional volume that you would have seen in the first one because there was a, let’s say, a a outsized client in that portfolio of the first six.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: So one is is just from my understanding, so one is 40,000,000 and the rest is 1 to 2,000,000. And so

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: No. No. No. No. We are we are typically in the range 2 and a half to 5 per client, but you have one which is substantially above in the first six.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: What is then the 40,000,000?

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: The sum of the six together, of the first six onboarded clients.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Okay. Okay. Okay. Are there is there already some revenue in q two, or is everything coming in in the second half?

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: No. There is some revenue in q two, but it’s rather limited so far.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: So we started And

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: that will be on your

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: shipping’s in May, I think. Yes. Yeah. For shipping’s in May, we had for Fastrack.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Okay. I’m writing it down quickly. And then on your outlook, you made almost €100,000,000 in the first half adjusted EBIT and your average shares at the higher end. So they’re suggesting that there’s a maximum of 80 to come. But last year, made almost 100 in the second half.

While you have some some some extra tailwinds coming, onboarding of new clients, still some some lower lease cost, potentially no no impact from strikes, etcetera, etcetera. Let’s hope so. And so you have a few positives as well. You have one month extra extra from Stasi. How would it be that the result for the second half with your guidance is so much lower than last year?

Is that logical?

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: I started in this month, Chris. Yeah. So in fact, the situation is different business unit by business unit. Typically, if I start with cross border, mostly h one equates h h two or the other way around, it’s more or less the same. They are not so much impacted peak.

When it comes to radial in The US, h two is by far higher than h one because it’s very much peak sensitive driven. It has always been the case. There is no no change in the pattern on that one. When it comes to three p a in in Europe, we will see a higher q two a higher h two than h one because the synergies would start kicking in the second half. They already start kicking in, but mostly in the third and the fourth quarter.

So that would lead to having h two that would be significantly higher than h one based on what I’ve explained. But in Belgium, it’s the opposite. We always have seen that h one was significantly higher than h two. Again, it’s not ’24, it was ’23, ’22 and before. The highest quarter is typically the first quarter.

The second one is the second in rank. Due to the low volume in the summertime, the third quarter is close to zero in terms of EBIT. And then there is the impact of the year end peak, which has always demonstrated to have higher top line, but from a percentage margin contribution, it’s lower than the first half. So if you mix all together, that explain why we are guiding on those numbers.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: But that would mean quite a significantly marked down on beverage last mile versus last year as well.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: But you have you have a combination of postal impact and an increase in parcel volume, but as in follower, also compensated by higher cost to handle because it’s based on flexibilities that we have to bring into the system. And so we don’t make a substantial better EBIT. So there is a higher revenue in the fourth quarter, but a Low. Let’s say, a a a stable or slightly increase of EBIT. But the third quarter actually is the one that is the is is is the, let’s say, the least attractive quarter for us.

And there you see that the impact of the sum of the two makes the the total result combined with mail in Benelux Smiles of the Belgium business, the postal business combined with parcel business will be lower than in h one.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: And But which is fully in line with the announcement

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: we made before, which is fully in line with what we’ve seen in the past with the announcement we’ve made around there. So there’s no surprise in that. It’s just what we have always said.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Yes, true, true. But if you look back, the second half is not that much weaker than the first half. You have a few extra tailwinds and some headwinds you had now in the first half the strikes and stuff. So it would mitigate a bit the difference between first half and second half. That’s why I’m feeling that there’s a bit of caution building.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: It’s really the fact that to deliver these higher volumes, we really need to add a lot of additional resources, and it comes at a cost. That’s really what what Chris explained, and this is something that we have observed since many years. Of course, when you were comparing face value of it, you had in those numbers in the past, the press that was extremely stable quarter over quarter, so it was diluting a bit that impact or hiding a bit that seasonality impact. Now it really come at at full light.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Yes. Okay. Maybe one quick follow-up. And the pricemix on the parcel side was a negative. I think initially, you always guided for a positive full year impact.

Is that because of the client mix changing? And is that continuing that we should also expect maybe a negative price mix in the second half?

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: That’s still an impact of the strike where we see that the large clients, which typically have a lower margin, have come faster back in terms of the volume than the ones that we see on the smaller clients. As you can imagine, of course, our Salesforce is full out to capture back those clients. You start obviously with the where the the biggest volumes are, and then you have to go one by one with the other clients, which takes more time. And so there, we’re still in the process of winning them back. And so that gave this negative impact of product mix.

So the compensation that we have seen in the volume loss through to to the strike, the win back was faster on the larger clients than on the mid sized and and smaller clients.

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: Yeah. That makes sense. K. That’s very clear. Thanks very much.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Marco Limite from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Marco Limite, Analyst, Barclays: Hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I’ve got two. The first one is on your financial expenses this quarter at €42,000,000 I mean, you disclosed that there are some other elements in that number. But just wondering what could be, let’s say, normal run rate for financial expenses for Q3, Q4?

And also what we should expect directionally in 2026 on again, on the financial expenses number? And then the second question is on SASI. So if I look at your slide on Page seven, you are basically showing that all of the 3PL Europe revenue increase is coming from the consolidation of SASE. At the same time, you have got Real Europe and ActiveVents growing 13%. Am I right in thinking that SASE revenues are actually down year over year?

And if overall SASE revenues and business performance is developing in line with your expectations? Thank you.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: Let me start with the financial expenses. So thanks for your question. So what we said that in the financial result, there is some cash and noncash element. If I come on the cash element, which the variation equates for variation between 10 and and 15,000,000, which is just the situation that before, prior to the SaaS acquisition, we had cash that was invested at higher interest rate. And now we have a lower level of cash.

And by the way, interest rate went also down, and we have additional debt coming from the acquisition of SASE. So basically, based on what what we share with the market, the issuance of the bond that we did last year and this year, you have a pretty fair view of what it’s going to be going forward. Now this is for the cash part. The non cash part, which is as as I said, if the cash part is between ten and fifteen, the non cash, you could do the math compared to what I said, is highly volatile and depending on the evolution of The US euro exchange rate since we have intercompany loans so between Bpost and Ve to The US market and since the US dollar weakened, of course, we had to do a mark to market of this or revaluation if you want at the end of the quarter since it’s a balance sheet item, then explain most of the variance. If we would be making the close of the book as we speak, we would have already regained a quarter of the shortfall that we are seeing due to the exchange rate evaluation.

So to guide you, I think you should take the rates that we have seen on the issuance of the bond. This is what is the best proxy for future interest expenses on a cash item. On a non cash item, I cannot predict the evolution of the US dollar euro rates. On Stasi, I start and you continue, Chris. So on Stasi, 3PL Europe, indeed, you’re absolutely right.

We continue to see significant growth on retail and active ends since we are we have we were enjoying that one since many many quarters. And Stasi itself delivered good profitability because we as we said, it 10.4 EBIT percentage to sales, which is a very reasonable one. It’s fair to say that the top line development on the portfolio of Stasi was a bit less strong than we could have expected, while having different situation. We have US really growing very well. UK being a bit difficult.

By the way, this is what we have mentioned also on other parts of the business. We see that The US sorry, The UK market in terms of volume development is difficult. Our colleagues of Cross Bordeaux also experienced that one. And in France, the activity was equal to the year before. But profitability was in line with expectation.

Marco Limite, Analyst, Barclays: Okay. And if if I can follow-up on that topic, I think you’re still looking for management with with role for 3PL Europe. Is that right, how the process is going? Thank you.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Well, the process is on track. It’s not yet in the phase that we can communicate, and so we will communicate at the moment that this process is coming to a conclusion. Okay.

Marco Limite, Analyst, Barclays: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Marc Zek from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Marc Zek, Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux: Two, if I may. I’m afraid I need to come back or follow-up on the H2 profit that is implied by the guidance. And I guess I understand what you said on Benelux Mile H1 versus H2 expectations. But still, I believe, your guidance implies then that Benelux Mile H2 this year versus H2 last year, there will be quite a step down in profitability. Yes, if you can help me understand how that happens.

And then the second question, more like a macro question on Ragdal U. S. And if you could elaborate if there if you expect any impact on Rodeo U. S. From the abolishment of The U.

S. De minimis regulation that August will basically now affect all countries in addition to China, Hong Kong. Will this have any impact on Radeal for Q3, Q4 or for 2026? Or is Radeal not all exposed to any e commerce business that was coming into DS under the de minimis regulation? Thank you.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: You take the first one from H2?

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: So H2, really, I want to emphasize on the fact that the peak comes the peak execution come at a higher cost than the the normal operation. Also, in terms of absolute EBIT, it’s the the the EBIT contribution would be dependent of the the volumes itself, the top line. We see that the the the consumer confidence in Europe is not at its highest to the contrary. So if we combine the two, we believe that it’s the best forecast that we could make at this stage. This being said, we will continue to improve on an operational standpoint.

So we will not take a potential lower growth rate on top line as a fact and not doing something. I think operational measures are taken as already started in the first quarter, the second one, and some additional will come to be able to compensate for that. But we do not believe that it will make the fourth quarter as very high in terms of EBIT, unlike we can see in the first and second quarter, where it’s more base loaded, where we have the the the best operational efficiency.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: At the the minimus change, what we see is quite some activity around discussions on local fulfillment, but not yet leading to specific contracts. So what we see that is realized in the pipeline was already, let’s say, in a discussion before that discussion of de minimis, but we could expect when it comes through that there is a increase of local fulfillment, which is positive for the business of radio. Obviously, it also has the whole tariff discussion in The US has quite a impact on what is happening in our cross border business, and there you see shifts in lanes. Luckily, teams have been able to go with the shift in lanes, and so we see that they that they’re managing it fairly well so far. It’s a very complex environment where we see that, for instance, The US Canada lane is under pressure.

It is compensated to some extent with the Asia Canada lane where we have no higher volumes coming in. See as well that we’re developing new lanes, the reverse lane from Canada to The US, the lane in Spain that we’re developing. So teams are working well and are still delivering on the plans, but what you see is quite some important shifts in the flows within the business that we see today. But so on the side of the fulfillment, I think that you have two effects that we can expect. One is likely more possibility in the fulfillment space to grow the business.

On the other hand, probably pressure on same store sales in the longer run, given then the decreased purchasing power as a consequence of the tariff war that we see, which is expected to leak at some point of time in less, say, consumer confidence in The US, not today as as we see, of course, but something in the long run. So we see those two parameters that will wait on each other. Hard to predict fully in detail which one will will will win in that dynamic, but I think the good news is we have a very active sales team today really hunting on the opportunity side, both in the cross border and in the radial business. So we’re confident that we try to get the best out of these changes in the markets.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: And something we have not seen that

Mark Zwartsenberg, Analyst, ING: we

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: could have potentially seen is in anticipation of these changes, higher volumes, we have not really seen it.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Yes. So we looked as well in the lease optimization if there was an opportunity for earlier inbound into The US, which we have not seen. No.

Akhil D’Klurk, Analyst, KBC Securities: Okay. Thank you.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: Canada by the way as well.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: No. No.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: The Northern no.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Henk Slotboom from The Idea.

Henk Slotboom, Analyst, The Idea: Well, looking at today’s figures, I guess you can say the first blow is half the battle. I’ve got two questions. One is a follow-up on the previous question with regard to cross border. Chris, you said you were seeing higher activities on the China Canada lane. And at the same time, we see you’ve been adding, clients, in cross border, on the Canada US rules.

Is that a structural thing? The the minimum rule is now affecting all countries in the world. And, yeah, we all know that the relationship between The US and Canada is not at its best shape ever? And the second question I had is on the parcels, and that’s on the negative impact of the price mix effect. Is that more like a mix effect?

Or is it something like you had a strike in the first quarter? Is it a sort of peace offering to the clients to keep the clients in? And have you seen any material damage to your client base on the back of the strengths we’ve seen in the first half sorry, in the first quarter of this year?

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Yes. Okay. Let me take them one by one. On cross border, of it’s, course, hard to predict because what we saw already in the Canadian situation was even before the minimus change and even before tariff impact on on Canada, we saw already a changing buying behavior of Canadians. So there was a lower volume on The US Canada lane and an increased volume on the Asia Canada lane.

And so it’s not only driven by tariffs, it’s also driven by a sentiment. And, of course, predicting the sentiment with the current situation in North America is a little bit hard for us to say. I think that the good news for us is, of course, that we are present on both lanes. And so whatever will shift in those lanes, and we’re also looking at other lanes towards Canada where we can reinforce our presence. So we try to make sure that we continue to be a very strong player on that Canadian market there.

What you see is new, which is that before the flow Canada to The US was fairly lower, and we have actually seen an increase of activity also pushed by extensive sales efforts for our team. But we see now that we are reinforcing our our position in the reverse flow that we see from Canada to The US. And so that is probably something that we think will be a structural trend. Also, to be admit as well today, it’s not that material that we should make it a big point, but it’s important that we see that there’s a new new dynamic starting there and at least we’re part of that new dynamic. Price mix effect is really a volume mix effects that you see today.

So that is that as an effect of the strike, we have a number of clients that deviated there were already dual carrier that deviated to the other carriers some of that volume, and it took us time to bring it back. But overall, actually, these are typically the large accounts who were very, let’s say, really good in in in in rebuilding that confidence with them and ensuring that they would come back. What you see is, of course, in the, let’s say, the the the the clients that bring lower volumes, it takes more time for us because it’s more sales effort linked to that, and that’s typically volumes that come to at a slightly better price mix than the ones that you have in the larger side. So it’s today not a we discount to win clients back. We spend time to get the right volumes back, but we have a little bit of a negative mix effect of the speed at which which which volume comes back to our facilities.

And neither temporary discount? We have not done that. No. No temporary discount. It’s really building on that.

Obviously, I’m not going to reveal the details of that, but there’s a lot of commercial discussion on that, which are more to do about reliability, ensuring to have backup plans and all these kind of elements to ensure that we can deliver high quality to our clients in in any circumstance, which which we have spent quite some time on, but it has not been about commercial discounts to keep volumes.

Henk Slotboom, Analyst, The Idea: If I understand you correctly, you’re saying there’s no structural damage in the client base as a result of the strikes. And as far as the negative mix effect is concerned, With a bit of luck, we might see it turning positively again if the smaller clients come back again?

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: I’m happy to see your confidence. We’re a little bit more cautious than you are in the sense that, of course, we have to talk to these clients every day. And I think that there has been some confidence issues with some of those clients. I don’t think we’re back to normal level yet, but we see that we’re on the right track to build it up again. And, obviously, if we’re able to build it up again and build that confidence, that Oblia is a very good base for future growth of our activity.

But it’s a little bit early to to to to already cry victory on this one.

Philippe Darcian, CFO, bPost Group: We will not cry victory on the war, but the better maybe because in the quarter, the second quarter, the price mix effect was slightly positive.

Henk Slotboom, Analyst, The Idea: Okay. And would you allow me a small follow-up on the first answer you gave? Is it fair to assume that the growth in clients on the Canada U. S. Lane could be a prelude to clients opting for local fulfillment as well?

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Yeah. It’s it’s clearly linked, the one to to to the other. That’s a a a good observation, I would say.

Henk Slotboom, Analyst, The Idea: Okay. That’s all. Thank you very much.

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions, so I will hand it back to Chris to conclude today’s conference. Thank you.

Chris Peters, CEO, bPost Group: Okay. Thank you then, everybody, in the call for having taken the time to be with us and for your interesting questions. As a reminder, our third quarter results will be published in early November, exceptionally this time on a Wednesday, November 5, instead of the usual Friday. Until then, we look forward to staying in touch. And for those who haven’t taken their holidays yet, I wish you a great break.

Thank you very much, and have a nice day. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you for joining today’s call. You may now disconnect.

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