Earnings call transcript: Canfor Pulp Products beats Q1 2025 earnings forecast

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (CFX) reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, surpassing analysts’ forecast of $0.07. The company’s revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $196.2 million compared to the anticipated $177 million. Despite the positive earnings report, Canfor’s stock remained unchanged at its last close value of $0.76, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company is currently trading below its Fair Value, with a low Price/Book multiple of 1.24x and strong free cash flow yield, suggesting potential upside opportunity.

Key Takeaways

• Canfor Pulp Products outperformed earnings expectations with a notable EPS beat.
• Revenue growth was driven by increased productivity and strategic investments.
• Despite strong financial results, the stock price remained stable, indicating market uncertainty.
• The company anticipates a challenging demand environment in the short term.
• Strategic initiatives include share repurchases and capital expenditure reductions.

Company Performance

Canfor Pulp Products demonstrated robust performance in Q1 2025, with its lumber and pulp businesses showing significant improvements. The lumber segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $61 million, a $44 million increase from the previous quarter, while the pulp segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $21 million, up by $9 million. The company’s strategic focus on increasing production capacity in the US South and improving productivity contributed to these gains. InvestingPro data reveals the company’s revenue has grown nearly 5% over the last twelve months, with analysts expecting continued profitability improvement in 2025.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $196.2 million, exceeding the forecast of $177 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.09, compared to the forecast of $0.07.
• Net debt for Canfor Pulp: $72 million; Canfor’s debt (excluding Pulp): $94 million.
• Available liquidity: $1.3 billion for Canfor, $82 million for Canfor Pulp.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Canfor Pulp Products exceeded market expectations with an EPS of $0.09, beating the forecast by approximately 28.6%. This positive surprise reflects the company’s successful cost management and operational efficiency. The revenue beat of $19.2 million suggests strong demand and effective execution of the company’s strategic initiatives.

Market Reaction

Despite the positive earnings surprise, Canfor’s stock price remained steady at $0.76, with no change in value. This stability suggests that investors may be cautious due to broader market uncertainties or potential future challenges in the industry. The stock is currently trading closer to its 52-week low of $0.63, indicating room for potential growth if market conditions improve. Recent InvestingPro data shows a significant 6.37% return over the last week, while maintaining a beta of 1.14, suggesting moderate market sensitivity. For deeper insights into Canfor’s valuation and growth potential, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Canfor Pulp Products expects tepid demand in the short term, with potential challenges from elevated duty environments and tariffs. The company plans to reduce capital expenditures in 2025, with the lumber business targeting approximately $250 million and the pulp business $45 million. Strategic initiatives include opportunistic share repurchases and continued focus on operational performance.

Executive Commentary

"We are positioned to navigate the current environment supported by the transformation of our lumber business," stated CEO Susan Yerkovich. COO Steven Mackie emphasized, "We continue to focus on operational performance, while closely managing our cost structure." These comments highlight the company’s strategic focus on efficiency and adaptability in a volatile market.

Risks and Challenges

• Volatile lumber pricing due to supply rationalization.
• Potential tariffs and elevated duties impacting profitability.
• Global economic uncertainties affecting demand.
• Currency fluctuations, particularly the weak Canadian dollar.
• Trade disputes exposing less than 20% of sales revenue.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about potential mergers and acquisitions, SPF price dynamics, and the impact of potential duties. The company confirmed sufficient fiber supply for pulp operations through 2026, addressing concerns about resource availability. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 and strong cash flow generation, the company maintains financial flexibility for strategic initiatives. Get access to 7 additional exclusive InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive financial analysis by subscribing to InvestingPro.

Full transcript - Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (CFX) Q1 2025:

Joanna, Conference Operator: Good morning. My name is Joanna, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to Canfor and Canfor Pulp’s First Quarter Analyst Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. During this call, Canfor and Canfor Pulp’s Chief Financial Officer will be referring to a slide presentation that is available in the Investor Relations section of the company’s website.

Also, the companies would like to point out that this call will include forward looking statements, so please refer to the press releases for the associated risks of such statements. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President of Canfor Corporation. Please go ahead.

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Thank you, Joanna, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the Canfor and Canfor Pulp Q1 results conference call. I’m gonna start by making a few remarks before I turn things over to Steven Mackie, Canfor’s Chief Operating Officer and CEO of Canfor Pulp and Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer of Canfor and Canfor Pulp. In addition, in the room today, we’re joined by Kevin Pankratz, our Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Canfor and Brian Ewan, our Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Canfor Pulp. Following the completion of several strategic initiatives in recent years, Canfor is entering 2025 with a lower cost globally diversified lumber platform and a strong balance sheet.

While there remains significant uncertainty with respect to the broader economic landscape with the ongoing trade disputes, we are positioned to navigate the current environment supported by the transformation of our lumber business in recent years. With this uncertainty, we expect demand to remain tepid in the short term, but continue to believe that global market fundamentals remain strong for our lumber business and we’re well positioned to capitalize on improved demand over the medium to long term. Although lumber pricing is anticipated to remain volatile through 2025, significant supply rationalization contributed to higher pricing to start the year, supporting improved results in the first quarter. In addition, we’ve started to see the benefits of our significant capital investments in our U. S.

Southern operations and the improvements in our underlying cost structure, 40% of our volume now produced in The U. S. South this quarter. While it will take some time to fully ramp these investments, the transformation of our business in recent years has set us up to be more resilient, better able to mitigate market related pressures and deliver more stable returns over the cycle. And while we expect to enter into an elevated duty environment later this year and there remains significant uncertainty around tariffs and the ongoing section two thirty two investigation, less than 20% of our total sales revenue is exposed to duties or trade disputes.

In these challenging times, Canfor continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with significant financial flexibility to manage the current headwinds facing our industry. And this balance sheet strength also allows us to continue to pursue strategic growth initiatives should the right opportunity arise. Although we will continue to maintain a disciplined approach given the current economic conditions. Finally, with a more modest capital plan in 2025 and significantly improved asset base, we expect Canfor to opportunistically repurchase shares through the year under our normal course issuer bid. I’d now like to turn it over to Steve Mackie to provide an overview of Campor Pulp.

Steven Mackie, Chief Operating Officer and CEO of Canfor Pulp, Canfor Corporation: Thanks Susan, and good morning everyone. Campor Pulp generated solid financial results in the first quarter, supported by improved productivity, modestly higher pulp sales realizations and another strong quarter for our paper business. Our sales realizations benefited from a weak Canadian dollar and a strong pulp pricing in China to start the year, although momentum weakened towards the end of the first quarter, given rising global economic and trade uncertainty. We anticipate lower pricing in the second quarter as trade disruptions weigh on market conditions. Notwithstanding current macroeconomic conditions, Amphibole is well positioned to manage volatile markets given our unique high strength fibre characteristics, market diversification efforts and specialty product focus.

In terms of our operating performance, we’ve seen improved operating results in the last couple of quarters, with higher productivity contributing to a 6% increase in pulp production and a lower unit cost structure in the first quarter. While we have made progress in stabilizing our operations, and currently have adequate chip inventories, there remains uncertainty with respect to fibre supply later this year due to elevated softwood lumber duties and the current trade environment. As an organization,

Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer, Canfor and Canfor Pulp: we continue to focus on operational performance, while closely managing our cost structure and optimizing the economically available fibre supply. I’ll now turn it over to Pat to provide an overview of our financial results. Thanks, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. In my comments this morning, I’ll speak to our first quarter financial highlights, a summary of which is included in our overview slide presentation located in the Investor Relations section of Canfor’s website. Our lumber business generated adjusted EBITDA of $61,000,000 in the first quarter, up $44,000,000 from the previous quarter, reflecting the benefit of increased lumber prices in North America, continued steady earnings in Europe and an improvement in our underlying geographic mix and cost structure.

Our results benefited from an 18% increase in southern yellow pine production driven by the ongoing ramp up of our recently completed greenfield sawmill in Alabama and brownfield investment in Arkansas. In Western Canada production decreased by 18% following the closure of several high cost operations in British Columbia in late twenty twenty four. Overall approximately 70% of our production in the first quarter originated outside of Canada, with 40% of that in The US South. This reflects a significant transformation of our lumber platform following the completion of several strategic initiatives in recent years, with an improved geographic mix and cost structure supporting profitability despite the current challenging macro environment. Turning to our pulp business, Camfor Pulp generated adjusted EBITDA of $21,000,000 in the first quarter, up $9,000,000 from the prior quarter, reflecting the benefit of higher sales realizations and a 15% increase in shipments, attributable to improved productivity and favorable timing of shipments over quarter end.

At the end of the first quarter, Canfor Pulp had net debt of $72,000,000 and $82,000,000 of available liquidity, while Canfor excluding Canfor Pulp and the duty loan ended the first quarter with debt of approximately $94,000,000 and available liquidity of $1,300,000,000 On a consolidated basis, capital expenditures were approximately $122,000,000 in the first quarter, including approximately $9,000,000 for Canfor Pulp. Following completion of several major capital investments in recent years, we are anticipating significantly lower capital spend in 2025 with approximately $250,000,000 of capital spend projected for our lumber business, including final payments associated with our Alabama greenfield, the planned investment at our recently acquired sawmill in El Dorado, Arkansas and an ongoing brownfield planar investment in Sweden. For CAMFOR pulp, are currently forecasting capital spend of $45,000,000 in 2025, including capitalized maintenance. We also anticipate CAMFOR will allocate a modest amount of capital to opportunistically repurchase shares throughout the year under our normal course issuer bid, which we renewed in March. And with that, I’ll turn it back to you, Joanna, for questions from the analysts.

Joanna, Conference Operator: Thank you. We will now take questions from financial analysts. Please press 1 now if you have a question. There will be a brief pause while participants register for questions. Thank you for your patience.

First question comes from Sean Steward at TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Sean Steward, Analyst, TD Cowen: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Susan, be interested in your initial couple of months in the seat, thoughts on opportunities, optimize the portfolio and was interested in your comments with respect to having some dry powder for potential growth initiatives outside the discretionary CapEx opportunity. Any context on specific areas or product lines for M and A that might be of more interest than others?

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Thanks. Obviously, we made some very significant changes to our platform in recent years, particularly our platform here in British Columbia, and we continue to look at that across our system. We want to make sure that we have, that we’re continuing to optimize our portfolio. In terms of what we’re looking at going forward, obviously we’re grateful that we have the balance sheet that we have to continue to evaluate opportunities. We’re looking at expanding our product mix where we can and we want to continue to be able to invest in our business across, know, in The US, we’re looking at Europe, and we’re keeping our eyes open for those opportunities as they come, but obviously we’re going to be super disciplined given the environment that we’re operating in.

Sean Steward, Analyst, TD Cowen: And with the volatile capital markets and economic outlook in general, is there a sense that vendor asks for valuations to come in a little bit for potential acquisition opportunities?

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Maybe. I think we’re, yeah, I would just say maybe they are.

Sean Steward, Analyst, TD Cowen: Okay. One other question, we’ve seen a convergence of SPF and Southern pine prices since mid March. Thoughts on sustainability of that trend as deposit rates increase later this year and potentially get coupled with tariffs under Section two thirty two? I guess the question is, do you think this recent convergence is sustainable And what do you think about spreads going forward over the midterm?

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Yeah, I’m going get Kevin to ask that.

Kevin Pankratz, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Canfor: Sure, Sean. Good morning. Yeah, I think directionally, I still believe that SPF pricing is going to be at a premium in the long term. I think in moments of volatility, Sean, you’re going to see moments where it’s going to be offset that, especially in the two by four. But if you look outside two by four, you’re already seeing pretty well established spread premiums on like the six inch, eight and ten inches versus Southern Yellow Pine.

But I think directionally and as demand normalizes and we get outside of this duty environment, I think you will see a bit more of a premium on the SPF pricing. So I think we’ll monitor that. And in a duty environment, as we’ve seen in March and April, there was a corresponding market response as far as the price appreciation. So I think there’s a lot of moving pieces on that piece,

Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer, Canfor and Canfor Pulp: but directionally, I think we’re on that path.

Sean Steward, Analyst, TD Cowen: Got it. Okay, thanks, Kevin. That’s all I have for now, everyone.

Joanna, Conference Operator: Thanks, Sean. Thank you. The next question comes from Ketan Mamtora at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ketan Mamtora, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Thanks for taking my question. I’m just curious, just following up on Sean’s question. Can you talk about sort of what’s driving this pretty meaningful drop in SPF prices that we’ve seen over the last couple of months? We had capacity curtailments late last year as well. So, if you want to just, I mean, I’m curious, one, sort of what demand trends you’re seeing and kind of what’s driving this drop in SPF prices?

Kevin Pankratz, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Canfor: Sure. Sure, John. It’s Kevin here again. I’ll sorry, Ketan. So, on the demand side, obviously, we I think in this April, May season, we haven’t seen the traditional big spring demand that we would normally see.

So, there’s something on the demand side that’s correlating with weaker consumer confidence numbers and builder confidence numbers. And so I think that’s part of it. Also, a lot of volatility with the tariff environment that we saw. I think every time they can start in March 2, April third, there’s always that element there. And I think the market’s rationalizing with that piece there that’s contributing to it.

And so I think there’s a couple of different variables there. And demand side, we’re just going to have to see how that plays out here in Q2. And then that will help. Of course, if there’s a bit of a pickup there, that’ll help support that trend. But SPF pricing moved dramatically in December until April.

So that’s quite a lift. And so you’re coming off some pretty rapid responses. So it’s not unexpected to see some kind

Steven Mackie, Chief Operating Officer and CEO of Canfor Pulp, Canfor Corporation: of moderation in the two by four SPF price.

Ketan Mamtora, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: I see. Okay. Got it. And then, you know, I’m just curious, you know, with these deposit rates, you know, likely going up in the back half of this year, you know, you obviously made, you know, a number of changes to your, you know, operating posture up in BC. But with this big jump coming, can you talk about sort of what’s your approach in managing the different regions?

So clearly you’ve got Europe, you’ve got meaningful production in The U. S. South as well. So can you talk to kind of how you sort of think about, you know, your approach to production when duty rates go up?

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Yeah, so obviously we’ve made a lot of changes to be, we’ve been knowing that we’re going to be facing higher duty rate environment for some time and that’s why we’ve made these very difficult decisions. We have less of our business operating in Canada for sure and about as we mentioned, about 20% exposed to the duty environment. I mean it’s the benefit of having a diversified operating platform, we operate in Canada, in The US and also in Europe. If you look at our European operations just for a minute, know we have so many options around there to sell. Have a lot of, we have great quality fiber, lots of options around product mix and also lots of markets, different markets to sell it to.

So if one market is not performing, we can switch to another. And so I think that’s, that’s what we’ve been doing to be able to withstand what we knew was coming in. Of course, we expected the softwood lumber duties. We had not perhaps anticipated the IEEPA potential duties or the $2.32 tariffs, that’s new. But as Kevin said, you know, each time the duties have been talked about, you know, the market has responded, futures went up, some of that gets priced in and it certainly makes it more expensive for customers who want to buy our product, which of course will have an impact, it could have an impact on demand.

So we’re watching that. But I think what we have done is set ourselves up to the best extent possible to be able to withstand this volatility and this market uncertainty associated with these ongoing trade disputes. Our hope is that, you know, things will resolve and we will find a way forward and that would be advantageous not only for our industry but for many others.

Ketan Mamtora, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Susan, have you all done any kind of scenario planning around, you know, when duties go up and if we assume that, you know, demand slows down, and then the question becomes, you know, who bears the cost of these increased duties in the event that prices don’t rise to the same degree? What is the approach then?

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Yeah, well, know, have we done scenario planning like all day every day? Yes, because it’s been a very interesting operating environment. But you know, look, has to, know, my expectation, if you look back at the history on the trade file when duties come in, there is generally a price response and it goes up usually a little bit higher and then moderates up. Now is past history, going to be what happens in the future? It’s unclear, but I will say none of these regions selling into The US if there is these extremely high duty amounts, they can’t withstand it.

So there’s either going to be a price response or people are going to have to shut down or curtail. And of course what we know is despite maybe some assertions that there is enough domestic supply in The US to meet demand. That’s just not the case. There is about a 14,000,000,000 board foot ish gap, give or take, between what’s produced and what is consumed in The US. So there is demand that will not be met and that means that either people won’t be able to access their products and there’ll be a slowdown and that has other implications for The US economy or there will be a price response, which also of course will have an impact on affordability.

So yes, we’ve been looking at all kinds of scenarios. It’s a very interesting time to be operating and we’re doing lots of scenario planning, but what we are doing is we’re focusing on the things that we can control and working hard to make sure that our assets are running optimally and focusing on cost control and making sure that we’re delivering our products to our customers.

Ketan Mamtora, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Thanks Susan, that’s helpful perspective. I’ll jump back in the queue.

Joanna, Conference Operator: Thank you. Next question comes from Matthew McKellar at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First for me, it sounds like you’re expecting an uplift in European lumber prices in Q2, but also higher log costs. Are those essentially offsetting each other so far through the quarter? Or should we be thinking about some margin compression or expansion here?

And then would you expect to modulate your production levels at all in Q2 versus maybe Q2 last year to contain those log costs a bit? Thanks.

Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer, Canfor and Canfor Pulp: Yeah, Matt, it’s Pat. I think it’s hard to say, I mean, we’ve seen actually pretty robust pricing opportunity in Europe, more than maybe our team there had expected. And so I’d say it’s still a little bit dynamic. I think there is an opportunity to protect the margin in the second quarter. So as you know, the suites take a lot of downtime in July.

And so there’ll be a big block of downtime in July, but at this point we don’t have any other downtime planned for the second quarter.

Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay, thanks, Pat. And then last for me, just thinking through the comments around duties and what those could potentially apply for your fiber supply for the pulp business, what’s kind of change in lumber production levels in the area around Prince George or however you define the procurement area would potentially create an issue for your pulp production volumes or at least drive higher input costs to the extent you could consume more pulpwood? Thanks.

Steven Mackie, Chief Operating Officer and CEO of Canfor Pulp, Canfor Corporation: Hey, Matt, it’s Steven here. Yeah, there, I mean, where we’re at today is we do have sufficient supply to and reasonable sort of visibility to a line of sight of supply that will support our current operating platform in Prince George out through the balance of this year and into well into 2026. So we’re encouraged by the progress that we’ve made, certainly relying on a higher percentage of whole log chip and pulpwood than we had historically, given some of the capacity reductions in the lumber space. There’s obviously the uncertainty associated with duties and the response that may come in lumber production as a result of duty implications or implementation. But as Susan, I think articulated really well, we do anticipate a market price response and we’re cautiously optimistic that we’ll have sufficient supply to support the operating capacity, but we’ll obviously respond as it’s pretty volatile and dynamic situation and we’ll respond for as we see changes.

Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Thanks for that color. I’ll turn it back.

Joanna, Conference Operator: Thank you. We have no further questions. I’ll turn the call back over to Susan Yerkovich for closing comments.

Susan Yerkovich, Chief Executive Officer and President, Canfor Corporation: Okay. Thank you, Joanna, and thanks all for participating in the call today, and we’ll look forward to chatting to you next quarter.

Joanna, Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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