Earnings call transcript: Dios Fastigheter Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast, stock falls

Dios Fastigheter AB reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, exceeding analysts' expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.3, compared to the forecasted 1.49. Despite this significant earnings beat, the company's revenue fell slightly short of projections at $632 million, against an anticipated $638.03 million. Following the announcement, Dios Fastigheter's stock saw a decline of 3.49%, closing at $74.60, reflecting investor concerns over revenue shortfall and other market dynamics. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $6.80, with a market capitalization of $980.24 million. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently fairly valued based on its comprehensive Fair Value model.

Key Takeaways

• Dios Fastigheter's EPS surpassed expectations by 54.4%.
• Revenue fell short of forecasts by $6.03 million.
• Stock price dropped by 3.49% in pre-market trading.
• Economic occupancy rate decreased to 91%.
• Investment in tenant improvements totaled $232 million.

Company Performance

Dios Fastigheter maintained its position as a market leader in Northern Sweden's real estate sector. The company reported a total property market value of $31.4 billion, with a like-for-like rental growth of 1.6%. However, the economic occupancy rate decreased to 91% from 92% in the previous year, impacting the overall operating surplus, which saw a 6% decline to $414 million.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $632 million (below forecast)
• Earnings per share: 2.3 (above forecast)
• Operating surplus: $414 million (6% decrease YoY)
• Average interest rate: 4.3% (10 basis points lower QoQ)
• Secured loan-to-value ratio: 40%

Earnings vs. Forecast

Dios Fastigheter's actual EPS of 2.3 significantly exceeded the forecast of 1.49, representing a 54.4% surprise. This performance contrasts with previous quarters, where earnings typically aligned more closely with projections. The revenue miss of $6.03 million, however, signals potential challenges in achieving expected growth targets.

Market Reaction

Despite the positive EPS surprise, Dios Fastigheter's stock fell by 3.49% in pre-market trading, closing at $74.60. This decline suggests investor apprehension regarding the revenue shortfall and broader market conditions. The stock's performance remains within its 52-week range, between a high of $93.25 and a low of $73.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Dios Fastigheter anticipates a turnaround in vacancy rates by the second half of 2025. The company plans to continue refining its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and aims for a long-term loan-to-value target of 45-55%. Additionally, a new dividend policy focuses on growth, aligning with expectations of increased economic activity and potential interest rate cuts. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company has maintained dividend payments for 18 consecutive years, with analysts expecting a return to profitability this year. Get access to the complete Pro Research Report, part of InvestingPro's coverage of 1,400+ stocks, for comprehensive analysis and actionable insights.

Executive Commentary

David Kolsom, CEO of Dios Fastigheter, emphasized the company's commitment to Northern Sweden's growth, stating, "I believe in the development and growth of Northern Sweden." He also highlighted the company's stable cash flow, noting, "Our cash flow is not only higher than many other regions but also more stable."

Risks and Challenges

• Decreasing economic occupancy rates could pressure future earnings.
• Revenue shortfall may impact investor confidence.
• Macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate fluctuations, could affect financial stability.
• Competition in the Northern Swedish real estate market remains intense.
• Potential challenges in adapting to regional market demands.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company's new dividend policy and its impact on growth strategies. Dios Fastigheter addressed concerns regarding market stabilization, with expectations for improvement in the rental market by H2 2025. No significant new commercial projects are anticipated, aligning with the company's strategic focus on portfolio refinement.

Full transcript - Dios Fastigheter AB (DIOS) Q4 2024:

Call Moderator: I would now like to turn the call over to Johan Danma, Chief Investor Relations Officer, to begin. So please go ahead when you're ready.

Johan Dermer, Chief Investor Relations Officer, The US: Good morning, and warm welcome to this presentation of the year's GRN Report for 2024. Today, we have our new CEO, David Kolsom, who will present the results together with our CFO, Rolf Larsom. My name is Johan Dermer, and I'm the Chief Investor Relations Officer. After this presentation, there's an opportunity to ask question. Please listen for instructions how to register your question, and we'll do our best to answer.

Thank you for your engagement. I leave the word now to David.

David Kolsom, CEO, The US: Thank you, Johan. This is my first interim report as CEO of The US, and I have really been looking forward to this moment since it was confirmed that I would take over as CEO last summer. I started on January and have since gotten to know the company and my new colleagues. I have traveled to our cities and reviewed our property portfolio. With my experience from previous workplaces, twenty years experience, I'm well acquainted with regional cities in Northern Sweden and their dynamics.

Leading a market leading real estate company in growing cities is something I truly look forward to, and I'm determined to create growth for the future. Looking back at the results for the fourth quarter, I can state that it was a good result considering transaction and one off effects. The rental market in Northern Sweden shows resilience and the marginal increase in vacancies is a result of completed new production, both in our own portfolio and in the market generally, which has raised market vacancies temporarily. And this is not surprising to us as it has been known for a longer period. Access to financing remains good, and we see lower interest rates and lower margins during the quarter, With continued rate cuts from the Swedish central bank in the first quarter, we see that the marginal cost of debt is lower than the average cost of debt in the portfolio.

Property values are somewhat positive, and we see a marginal adjustment in the yield. The transaction market has picked up, and we see several deals being completed, which is positive and proves the value we have in our books. I will return to the outlook at the end of this presentation, but what I can state is that there is a significant difference between different markets. We see that our cities in Northern Sweden have a good development with continued stable or rising rental levels and underlying growth. To highlight some specific events during the quarter, I would like to mention transactions, completed new production and the board's proposal on dividend and the nomination committee's proposal for the upcoming AGM regarding chairman and the new board member.

During the year, we have divested 45 properties for almost 1,900,000,000, while acquiring nine properties for approximately 1,100,000,000.0. This combination makes the result for the fourth quarter difficult to compare to the same quarter last year. The transactions in isolation affect rental income by minus 24,000,000. Regarding the rental market, we experienced stable development despite our vacancies increasing slightly. This is entirely according to plan and something we have known about for a longer period.

For example, we have completed a new office for the social insurance agency in the Property B At 4 in Luleaux. There, the social insurance agency is leaving our premises in another of our properties, which results in an increase in vacancies. We see this development in our portfolio as relatively short term and expected turnaround in vacancies and development already in the second half of twenty twenty five. Recently, the nomination committee's proposal for the board and chairman for the twenty twenty five annual general meeting was presented. It is clear that the current chairman, Bob Persson, declines reelection both as chairman and as member.

Bob has been on the board since 02/2007 and has been chairman since 02/2011. The nomination committee proposes Per Goner, also called PG, Passion as the new chairman. And as representative from the largest owner of the Passion Invest, their current CEO, Bjorn Renzso is proposed as vice chairman and board member of DUS. It is also worth highlighting that the board proposes a dividend of $2.20 Swedish krones per share to be paid out on four occasions while updating the current dividend policy. The new policy aims to increase predictability and enable further investments for growth.

I now hand over to Rolf, who will go through the results in more detail. I will return with the market overview at the end of the presentation. Thank you.

Rolf Larsom, CFO, The US: Thank you, David. Let's get deeper into the result outcome for the fourth quarter. Like for like rental growth is 1.6% supported by indexation and rent reversion. The economic occupancy rate is 91% compared to 92% last year, which is good taking into consideration we have sold fully occupied residentials. The operating surplus ratio for the quarter is down 6% to $414,000,000 due to one offs regarding financial compensation for high electricity costs in 2023 and higher maintenance in 2024.

We're pleased to observe that our daily efforts to optimize property management are resulting in increased energy efficiency, minus 3.2% for the full year. As we continue to invest in our properties to be more proactive and future proof, we gather more evidence that properties with higher sustainability scores, such as lower EPDs and environmental certifications, are experiencing greater demand, higher rents and increased value. Financial costs are slightly higher, primarily due to derivatives that have matured and restructuring of existing derivatives, which has led to higher short term financial costs. We have had slightly positive value changes with valuation yield one basis point lower than last quarter. We see that our transactions are made at book value, which supports our review that our property values are at fair value.

Current tax is positively affected in the quarter using accrual funds and negatively for the full year by withdrawal taxation in connection with property sales and nondeductible interest rate costs. Our well diversified portfolio has strengthened the resilience of our top line. With 31% of our rental income derived from public sector tenants, we have a solid foundation for passing on CPI adjustments. We see that we can defend and increase our rental levels in connection with renegotiations and new lettings. Notably, 97% of all commercial leases agreement lease agreements include the annexation clauses, with 94% specifically tied to CPI.

In line with our long term strategy, we have increased the proportion of offices in our portfolio by primarily divesting residentials and acquiring centrally located offices. Like for like rental growth was 1.6%. And as David said earlier, we have slightly higher vacancies during the quarter and in the first half of twenty twenty five. However, we continue to experience strong demand for premises in central locations and expect the positive development of vacancies in the second half of twenty twenty five. Despite the slower overall economic sentiment in Sweden, we see great potential in our rental growth, both when it comes to the rental version, the continued increased occupancy rate and modern newbuilds.

We're seeing an increase in peak rent levels in our new leases, which in some cases, approach $3,500 per square meter. These rent levels are being reached in our strongest cities, which are being impacted by investments in the green transition. And as a market leader with local management and being in a company with strong cash flow, we have a competitive advantage over many other real estate companies in our cities. Net letting has been positive in 22 of the last 24 quarters, including NOK 10,000,000 in the last quarter where full year net letting amounts to NOK 32,000,000. Dollars We see increased activity after summer with Umea and Lluio leading the way.

With the economic outlook improving and interest rates decreasing at the beginning of this year, I anticipate increased activity. Down the line market remains incredibly strong and there's a significant demand for the right premises in prime locations across Northern Sweden. The market value of our properties amounted to $31,400,000,000 During the quarter, we have invested $232,000,000 in projects. And we have acquired seven properties for $965,000,000 and divested five properties for $281,000,000 which was announced in June 2024. '90 '1 percent of the property portfolio has been externally valued in Q4, which has resulted in slightly positive unrealized value changes of SEK19 million.

Dollars During the last quarter, we have seen an increase in investment activity. We also see that property yield and market values have stabilized. And our assessment is that yield adjustments have reached the peak. And the average yield was 6.14 which is one basis point lower since last quarter. With an interest rate of 4.3%, we have a yield gap of 1.7% and thus a continued strong cash flow.

As I said earlier, we have invested $232,000,000 in tenant improvements, property improvements and newbuilds. Yield on cost on completed projects during the period, excluding project properties, amounted to 9%. There is low risk in our major projects where pre let is a requirement and most of the rental income comes from tax finance operations. All new commercial projects are built according to Brien at least level very good. We currently have around 16,000 square meters under construction with a total investment volume of $610,000,000 where remaining investments amount to $260,000,000 All our ongoing projects are proceeding according to plan both in terms of cost and time.

And in addition, we have around 200,000 square meters of existing or possible building rights, where we see great potential for further value creation. These will be used for both our own development and disposal. And 50% of the buildings refers to commercial premises and the remaining 50% to residential. As I said before, we have slightly higher financial cost in the quarter. The reason is that the derivative with zero interest has expired and the increase in debt resulting from the acquisition of properties in Yavle and Loulio.

This has affected this quarter's financial cost with a total of $9,000,000 As we have mentioned before, we have had a strong focus on reducing our interest hedging ratio. We have therefore terminated derivatives with higher Stibo fixing in advance and lower our hedging rates up to 71% compared to 85% in Q3. The termination has led to a negative impact in Q4, but will have a positive impact on our future interest costs. During the quarter, we have refinanced bank loan of $566,000,000 and we have issued bonds corresponding to $200,000,000 and at the same time redeemed bond maturities corresponding to 70,000,000. This means that in the next twelve months, we have additional loan maturities excluding commercial paper of 2,900,000,000.0, which corresponds to 17% of interest bearing liabilities.

And we're actively working for more prudent maturity profile with longer debt maturities. Bank financing is and will be our most important source of financing. And we currently have 69% of our outstanding loans with banks. The proportion of bank financing has decreased since the turn of the year in favor of commercial papers and bonds. During the last quarters, we have seen a highly active Swedish bond market with high volume and lower margins as a result.

And as I said earlier, in recent months, we have made issues of unsecured bonds where we see a significant change in pricing. Today, a three year bond has margin of 160 basis points, which is 25 basis points lower than three months ago. And this also puts pressure on banks' lending margins where the margin for a three year bank loan is around 125 basis points, which is at the same level as in 2021. Our average interest rate at the end of the period was 4.3%, which is 10 basis points lower compared to last quarter. And the marginal cost of debt is now longer than our average cost of debt, meaning we have a sort of increased interest rate.

This will have a positive impact on our income from property management when refinancing and taking out new loans. We have divested low yielding asset and used liquidity to amortize debt and thereby lowering our financial cost and then improving our ISR and LTV. We have 69% of our financing in banks, 2,000,000,000 in unused credit facilities and a secured loan to value ratio of 40%. We will also add additional borrowing capacity through completed projects. And this together with good relationships with our banks makes us feel comfortable about future refinancing.

We still have a conservative balance sheet approach, which reflects our commitment to financial prudence and risk mitigation. We have reduced our financial risk over time, lowered our LTV, improved net debt to EBITDA and extended our interest rate fixing and debt maturity. During the past year, we have improved our financial key figures through divestments and a more cautious strategy regarding new major projects. This together with a strong cash flow and available liquidity means that we now see opportunities for growth, which primarily means acquisitions and an increased volume of tenant adaptions. And as we mentioned earlier, during the last quarter, we have acquired centrally located office properties in Liviu and Jable, cities where we expect good future growth.

And yet again, I feel comfortable with our current financial position and action taken. Our strong cash flow was our operating expenses, committed CapEx and further growth. And I will now leave the word back to David.

David Kolsom, CEO, The US: Thank you, Rolf. Despite the challenging macroeconomic landscape and some setbacks in the green transition, the fundamental factors for a green industrial transformation remains strong in our region. We continue to see significant investments from companies across various industries, positively impacting the growth prospects of our cities. Although many of these investments are in early stages and their effects on the cities are still limited, the future looks very promising. Just the other day, we received positive news from the government in Sweden.

They have given the green light for the construction of the first major section of the railway line between Umme and Schleffdion, known as the Norbokner Line. Norbokner Line is crucial for the growth of Northern Sweden, enabling more efficient commuting between cities and increasing freight traffic. The long term aim is to extend the railway line all the way from Umea to Luleo. Currently, Umea, Luleo and Jable are leading the way with rising rental levels and high investment pace. These are also the cities where we have focused our acquisitions over the past six months.

When we look at the population growth, we see significant differences between various cities in Sweden. Population growth is a fundamental factor for economic growth and ultimately leads to rising rental levels. It is worth highlighting that many other cities showed positive development even before the green transition. This indicates the effectiveness and the factors that make people want to live in and thrive in these cities. Bumio stands out as the city that has grown the fastest in Sweden over the past fifty five years, which is evident in the city's activity.

New areas are being developed. The university is expanding. Roads are being redirected, and the flow of people in the city center is increasing. Everything indicates that this development and growth will continue, with numerous ongoing urban development projects and many more planned. When we look specifically at the development and current situation in our region, we see high activity and growth that surpasses the rest of Sweden.

The so called gross regional product is growing fastest in our northernmost region. Unemployment is low in most of our cities, which means that our cities grow and companies demand labor. We need more people to move to our cities. The interest rate cuts implemented by Swedish Central Bank are starting to have an effect on the Swedish economy. We anticipate increased activity as people have more disposable income, benefiting our city's service sector such as shops, restaurants, and other experience based businesses.

Despite the weak macroeconomic development over a period, we continue to see rising rental levels, high inflation and consequently high rent adjustments have impacted our tenants profitability, but we have successfully renegotiated leases in all our cities at the same or higher levels. We see this as a proof that market rent levels remain at these levels or higher. A clear trend we observe is that more companies are introducing rules and requirements for employees to spend a larger portion of their time working from the office. This is, of course, welcome news for us as a major office owner. We have not faced the same challenges as metropolitan areas, where a large portion of the workforce works from home.

In our fifteen minute cities, there is not the same dynamic with commuting challenges as in larger cities. We are now seeing increased activity regarding investments in office adaptions, which is very positive. We're coming from a period of some hesitation from tenants, where there has been significant uncertainty about long term office needs. It is important to remember that these investments cost often just not justify changing offices as the rent savings achieved are not sufficient since rental levels remain relatively low in our market. Our operations demonstrate stable performance.

We have observed significant resilience among our tenants throughout the recent economic cycle with relatively few bankruptcies and rent losses. Real estate market in general also shows stability with property values being less volatile than the metropolitan areas. Our cash flow is not only higher than many other regions but also more stable. Therefore, we believe that net debt to EBITDA is an important measure to evaluate our low financial risk in addition to LTV. Over the past six years, we have only experienced negative net leasing in two quarters.

We find that tenants are less inclined to move in smaller cities where prime locations are fewer and alternatives are limited. Our property portfolio is concentrated in prime location. This not only creates synergies between different types of premises, but also offers excellent opportunities for alternative uses and conversions. Offices that do not meet today's indoor environment standards can be converted into residential units, while retail spaces on the Second Floor can become attractive offices. With our rental levels, there are significant opportunities to make profitable deals through these changes, thereby maintaining a low vacancy rate.

As Rolf said earlier, we are currently making very good deals through our adaptations and renovations. The yield on cost for ongoing investment is currently 9%, which in many cases also leads to an increase in value. With an improved economic outlook, we expect the volume of tenant adaptations to increase. With new peak rental levels and low interests, it became profitable to start commercial new construction three to four years ago. This has led an increase in market vacancy due to completed projects over the past year.

Currently, there are very few new construction projects underway in our cities, which means we expect current vacancies to decrease in the coming years. We have some relocations to new constructions occurring in the first half half of twenty twenty five, but after that, we foresee a turnaround. Regarding transactions, we will continue to refine our portfolio through asset rotation. We will continue to grow by acquiring properties with potential that complement our current portfolio and regions with the best growth prospects. To maintain financial stability, we will also divest properties that do not belong to our core portfolio or where our development potential is limited.

Despite a brighter economic future with lower interest rates and higher growth, we aim to maintain or strengthen our financial risk from this level. That said, we can temporarily increase our debt to capitalize on growth opportunities through acquisitions. In the long term, LTV should be between 4555%. The Earth's strength lies in our local presence, combined with the company's size, which create economies of scale in terms of expertise, favorable financing conditions and investment capacity. This provides competitive advantages few other companies in Northern Sweden have.

However, we have not reached a ceiling in Anover cities and can continue to grow, especially in the cities with the brightest prospects. I believe in the development and growth of Northern Sweden. The green transition has only just begun, and we have yet to see the effects of the NATO membership. Fundamentally, there is underlying growth driven by an active business community, forward thinking municipalities, education, culture, sport, proximity to nature and urban qualities. These are fantastic conditions for living a simple and sustainable life.

I look forward to continuing to drive the development of our cities based on each city's strengths, development that creates value for our tenants, for our cities and of course, for our shareholders. Thank you.

Johan Dermer, Chief Investor Relations Officer, The US: This takes us to the end of the presentation. We are now ready for questions.

Call Moderator: Thank We have a question from Alban Sandberg with Kepler. Please go ahead when you're

Alban Sandberg, Analyst, Kepler: ready. Yes, hello and good morning. I had a couple of questions and I start off with a change dividend policy. One, if you just could clarify. I think you're now saying around a third of the income from property management.

I took it that before it was around half of net income, but excluding the value changes. So I don't know if there's a tax impact to look at, but that's the more technical part of it. And then just the overall message that you're sending that I take that you lower your dividend assumptions or dividend ambitions, I would say? And whether that is a way to fund growth? Or is it because you're looking for continuing strengthening the balance sheet?

And if I got that message right?

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: Yes. Hi, Alban. This is Johan. Yeah, you're correct on your assumption. It's to fund further growth.

So there's a bit lower, if you compare the new dividend policy to the old one that will lower dividends somewhat. But that's only to that we see more opportunities in the in the market to to invest for further growth. And also to add on the, on the, we try to, to make it more simple for, for the shareholders to look at the income statement and see how much the dividend will be instead of, like you said, deducting tax and effects from realized value changes.

Alban Sandberg, Analyst, Kepler: Okay. That's clear. Thank you. And then I wonder, you state some extra costs in the net finance for Q4 as I understood it because of the derivatives changes and so on. Could you quantify how much that is?

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: Yeah. All fair, if we look quarter three to four, the derivatives is 4,500,000.0 and the increased debt in when we bought properties in Lidl and Yavli is around 4.5, so 9,000,000 in total.

Alban Sandberg, Analyst, Kepler: And then my final question was around your comments on the net lifting and maybe occupancy situation that I understood you're guiding for a little bit better stabilizing levels in H2. And I wonder if is that because of leases that you know about already now that will take place during H2 and also whether there are any, let's say, potential tenant departures due to upcoming rental renegotiations that you feel happy with or that one should know that there is a bit of risk or there is very low risk this year just to get the full picture for 2025 and what you're saying.

David, CEO, The US: It's David here. It's, the explanation is, is most in the projects that we are finishing in the coming years. So the vacancies now, but we're going to get, income from it, in, in the second half or beginning in the second half of twenty twenty five. So that's the explanation. So it's three, three big projects that we're moving around tenants and getting the rents up, but, it's going to take time before the money comes in.

So you can see in the net leasing it has been positive during all of the year and that's the guidance.

Alban Sandberg, Analyst, Kepler: Yeah. And are there any sort of upcoming rent renewals that you share a little bit extra or this is more business as usual as any other year?

David, CEO, The US: It's business as usual and in a positive way, we see that in every turnaround with tenants, we really get the rents on the upside and good returns on the projects. So for us, it's good news. But now in two quarters, we're going to see the numbers going down, but then we're going to see a turnaround. So it's expected.

Alban Sandberg, Analyst, Kepler: Okay. Thank you very much.

Call Moderator: Thank you. We have Vensi Elias with Kempen on the line now.

Vensi Elias, Analyst, Kempen: Hi, good morning. Just one quick question for me. On the like for like rental growth, I see it came at 1.6% and I understand that part of the change is because you adopted the new definition, but still versus indexation, it is also quite a bit weaker than previous quarters. So I was hoping that you could explain some of the differences versus the previous quarters.

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: Yes. Hi, Vince. It's Johan. Just to clarify, there's no new definition on the calculation for like for like growth, but there's a revision of the Q3 number due to miscalculation from our side. So that one was 3.6 instead of the last reported 6.5.

Percent. So but the explanation of the lower like for like is related to what David mentioned around finalized projects in our portfolio, but also in the market that we've seen companies moving from our existing premises to newly built premises, which creates some vacancies in the back, but also tenants moving to other new productions that have been finalized in the market. For instance, the municipality of Verstersund has moved part of their employees back to their main headquarters where they were located in our premises before. So that's something that we've known about for for quite some time, and it's also reflected in the net letting looking back. So just to sum up, yeah, the like for like for the quarter is lower, but it's mainly due to new finalized projects.

And as also David stated is that the rental market is still shows good resilience and we see that we could defend or even increase the rates, the rents from current levels

David Kolsom, CEO, The US: when

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: we renegotiate or we find new tenants. So the rental market is still strong, but the like for like figures for this quarter is on the low side.

Vensi Elias, Analyst, Kempen: Okay. Maybe just one follow-up question. So do you expect this trend to continue? Or would you say that all the recently completed supplies now fully left? Then maybe as an add on to that, do you expect to be indexation in 2025?

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: I would say that there is some move arounds in the first half of twenty twenty five. But looking back on the economic developments the last couple of years, there's been no new production started. So when we come out on the second half of this year, there's no new square meters being finalized in the commercial market in none of our cities. So we have a couple of more quarters where we see that the market vacancy could increase somewhat, But there's maybe one or two projects in one or two cities. So there's no major impact.

But looking at second half of this year, there will be we expect a turnaround on vacancies in H2.

Vensi Elias, Analyst, Kempen: Okay, clear. Thank you.

Call Moderator: Thank you. Just a quick reminder that you can register to ask a question by breaking star followed by one if you have joined us on the phones. I would like to hand it back to the management as I can confirm the Q and A has now concluded. And I'll hand it back to management for some final comments now.

Johan, Investor Relations, The US: Thank you, and thank you all for listening in. We are, as always, available for questions afterwards. So please reach out if there's any questions. Thank you and have a great day.

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