Earnings call transcript: Elme Communities Q1 2025 shows resilience amid challenges

Elme Communities (market cap: $1.42 billion) reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a slight miss in earnings per share (EPS) but a modest revenue beat. The real estate investment trust (REIT) posted an EPS of -$0.05, slightly below expectations, while revenue reached $61.49 million, surpassing the forecast of $61.32 million. The company’s stock responded positively, with a 1.32% increase in after-hours trading, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic initiatives and market positioning. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company currently appears overvalued based on its Fair Value calculations, with several key challenges ahead. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 5 additional exclusive ProTips for deeper insights into Elme Communities’ financial position.

Key Takeaways

• Elme Communities reported a revenue beat of $270,000 in Q1 2025.
• EPS fell short of expectations at -$0.05.
• Stock prices rose by 1.32% in after-hours trading.
• The company is accelerating its managed Wi-Fi program, expected to boost NOI.
• Strong performance noted in Washington Metro and Atlanta portfolios.

Company Performance

Elme Communities demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025, with notable growth in several key areas despite a challenging economic environment. The company reported a 3.9% increase in same-store revenue, contributing to an impressive 6.15% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Net operating income (NOI) grew 5.5% year-over-year, though InvestingPro data shows the company remains unprofitable over the last twelve months. Occupancy rates in its multifamily properties averaged 94.8%, an improvement of 50 basis points from the previous year. The REIT’s focus on mid-market rentals in Northern Virginia positions it well against economic volatility, supported by a defensive beta of 0.86.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $61.49 million, up from the forecast of $61.32 million.
• Earnings per share: -$0.05, slightly below expectations.
• Same-store revenue growth: 3.9% year-over-year.
• Net operating income growth: 5.5% year-over-year.
• Same-store multifamily occupancy: 94.8%.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Elme Communities’ Q1 2025 earnings showed a mixed performance, with EPS missing the forecast by a small margin. The revenue, however, exceeded expectations by $270,000, signaling effective management and operational strategies. The EPS miss was minimal compared to historical trends, indicating stability in the company’s financial health.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Elme Communities’ stock saw a 1.32% increase in after-hours trading. This positive movement reflects investor confidence in the company’s strategic direction and its ability to navigate economic challenges. The stock’s current price of $16.12 remains within its 52-week range of $13.95 to $18.49. Notably, the company has maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years, currently offering a 4.53% dividend yield. Get comprehensive insights into Elme Communities’ valuation and future prospects through the detailed Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

Outlook & Guidance

Elme Communities maintained its guidance for the upcoming quarters, projecting continued growth in NOI through its managed Wi-Fi program and property renovations. The company expects to capture an additional $600,000 to $800,000 in NOI in 2025 from the Wi-Fi initiative, with further increases anticipated by mid-2026. The REIT remains focused on achieving its revenue growth targets and maximizing shareholder value through strategic reviews.

Executive Commentary

CEO Paul McDermott emphasized the resilience of mid-market rent levels during economic volatility, stating, "Mid-market rent levels are widely recognized for offering relative resilience during periods of economic volatility." CFO Steve Freistat expressed confidence in the company’s fundamentals, noting, "The strong fundamentals of our portfolio and business... gives us confidence in our ability to deliver resilient performance."

Risks and Challenges

• Economic volatility could impact rental demand and pricing.
• Potential delays in the rollout of the managed Wi-Fi program.
• Competition from new housing developments in key markets.
• Rising interest rates may affect financing costs.
• Regulatory changes in key markets could impact operations.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the multifamily transaction market in Washington, D.C., noting active conditions with cap rates ranging from 4.25% to 5.25%. The company’s management highlighted the faster-than-anticipated rollout of the Wi-Fi initiative and maintained its guidance, with potential updates expected in the Q2 earnings call.

Full transcript - Elme Communities (ELME) Q1 2025:

Conference Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Elm Communities First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Amy Hopkins, Vice President, Investor Relations. Amy, please go ahead.

Amy Hopkins, Vice President, Investor Relations, Elm Communities: Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter earnings call. Today’s call will be available for replay on the Investors section of our website. Statements made during this call may constitute forward looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold. We refer to certain of these risks in our SEC filings. Reconciliations of the GAAP and non GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are available in our most recent earnings press release and financial supplement, which was distributed yesterday and can be found on the Investors page of our website.

Presenting on the call today will be Paul McDermott, our CEO Tiffany Butcher, our COO and Steve Freistat, our CFO. And with that, I will turn the call over to Paul.

Paul McDermott, CEO, Elm Communities: Thanks, Amy. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. We kicked off the year with strong momentum as both same store revenue and NOI came in ahead of our expectations, and the trends that we are seeing as we enter peak leasing season are encouraging. I’ll start today’s call by highlighting what we’re seeing on the ground here in the DMV and how we’re positioned as regional employment trends evolve. Tiffany will provide a more detailed update on our operating trends, and Steve will discuss our outlook for 2025.

While the new administration continues to work to streamline the federal workforce, the fundamentals that we are seeing across our Washington Metro portfolio remained solid and in line with seasonal norms. Looking forward, apartment tour volumes and renewal lease negotiations for June and July expirations remained strong and in line with our expectations. While we acknowledge that the region could be impacted by employment losses and a slowdown in economic growth, our mid market rent levels and geographic focus on Northern Virginia put us in a better position than higher end rentals and the broader regional housing market overall. Mid market rent levels are widely recognized for offering relative resilience during periods of economic volatility. Looking back at performance during sequestration in 2013 and 2014, Class B apartments outperformed Class A and effective rent growth by over 1.8% according to data collected by RealPage.

And with regard to our geographic focus, nearly 75% of Elm’s Washington Metro homes are located in Northern Virginia, which is known for having the strongest private sector employment growth in the Washington Metro Region. Over the past four years, Northern Virginia’s private sector job growth was two and a half times the private sector job gains in the Washington Metro Region according to BLS data. Although Northern Virginia is known as a major hub for federal contractors, we believe ELM’s exposure to government contractors is very low at approximately 5% of our Washington Metro resident base as of April. More details about our exposure to federal workforce reductions can be found on slide 11 of our latest investor presentation. Additionally, most federal employees fall outside the typical age range of apartment renters.

As of September 2024, over 70% of federal government employees were 40 per OPM data. In contrast, only 30% of Elm residents fall into that age group, suggesting a lower impact on apartments compared to the broader housing market overall. Looking at supply, conditions are shaping up for a very positive trajectory in the Washington Metro. According to RealPage, annual supply peaked in Q1 twenty twenty five at 2.2% annual net inventory growth, below the national average of 2.9%. New construction starts in the Washington Metro are down over 70% from their peak and supply is projected to decline steeply from here to 1.8% annual net inventory growth by the fourth quarter of this year, and still further to nearly half at 1.1% by the fourth quarter of twenty twenty six, which would be the lowest level reported since 2012.

Beyond 2026, supply could drop even further depending on the effects of tariffs and increased construction costs, paving the way for additional favorable competitive dynamics in the region. Turning to our strategic review, as announced on 02/13/2025, our Board of Trustees is overseeing a formal evaluation of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. This process was initiated from a position of strength and having transformed Elm into a multifamily REIT while improving performance and profitability and underscores our commitment to acting in the best interest of Elm and its shareholders. Despite the current volatility and uncertain capital markets environment, this evaluation remains ongoing. The board is working with independent financial and legal advisors to assess alternatives and determine the best path forward for Elm.

As we said when we announced this formal evaluation, there can be no assurance that this process will result in Elm pursuing a transaction or any other strategic outcome. And we do not intend to provide further details on the process in connection with the discussion of our first quarter earnings results today. Thank you for your understanding and keeping your questions focused on our results and outlook. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Tiffany to discuss our operations.

Tiffany Butcher, COO, Elm Communities: Thanks, Paul. Looking at our operational highlights, we are off to a solid start to the year. Demand trends across our Washington Metro and Atlanta portfolios reflect typical seasonality against the backdrop of stable supply levels in the DMV and improving supply dynamics in Atlanta. EHM’s same store multifamily occupancy averaged 94.8% during the first quarter, in line with our targeted range and up 50 basis points year over year. We achieved 1.9% same store blended lease rate growth during the quarter, And our initial estimated blended rate growth for April is 2.6%, reflecting a typical upswing heading into the spring leasing season.

Within our DMV portfolio, forward occupancy trends remain in line with our expectations, and renewal rates remain strong. We are continuing to closely monitor our forward looking demand indicators, and plan to adjust our pricing strategies accordingly. In Atlanta, we are experiencing stable rent and occupancy trends and better than expected bad New delinquencies have declined since the second quarter of last year, supported by higher credit standards, process changes and technology enhancements implemented last year. Eviction delays in Atlanta are steadily decreasing with a continued use of Georgia House Bill twelve oh three, and improved processing efficiency is also helping to reduce bad debt. As Steve will discuss in a moment, we expect improvement in bad debt to be a larger contributor to revenue growth in 2025 than we had initially anticipated.

Now turning to renovations, we completed 88 renovations during the quarter, at an ROI of approximately 18%, and remain on track to complete over 500 full renovations in 2025. We expect the pace of renovations to increase as expirations pick up during the summer leasing season. And we maintain flexibility to adjust the pace of renovations as market demand shifts. Moving on to operating initiatives, our managed Wi Fi program is ramping up more quickly than anticipated. And we now expect to capture 600,000 to $800,000 of additional NOI in 2025 from the seven communities that are part of phase one, and the four communities that are part of phase two.

Once phase one and phase two are fully integrated by mid-twenty twenty six, we expect to capture $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 of additional NOI per year with further upside from future phases. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Steve to cover our performance and outlook.

Steve Freistat, CFO, Elm Communities: Thanks, Tiffany. Our first quarter results were very strong, with same store revenue growth of 3.9% and NOI growth of 5.5% year over year. Our better than expected performance was driven primarily by stronger rent growth across our Washington Metro portfolio and two favorable real estate tax appeals in Atlanta. As Tiffany mentioned, our managed WiFi rollout is going very well, and the associated income is ramping up more quickly than we had anticipated. Additionally, Atlanta bad debt continues to decline, and we expect improvement in bad debt to be a larger contributor to revenue growth in 2025 than we had initially anticipated.

Based on our year to date performance and updated projections for fee income and bad debt, we believe we only need an additional 50 to 60 basis points of revenue growth from rent and occupancy changes across the rest of the year to reach the midpoint of our revenue forecast, a target we consider highly attainable. Additionally, our balance sheet remains in very good shape. Annualized net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.6 times during the first quarter, and we have over 60% of our total capacity available on our line of credit and no secured debt. In closing, our revenue and NOI are ahead of expectations at this point in the year, and we are encouraged by the positive momentum heading into the peak leasing season. Although the macro environment is in flux, the strong fundamentals of our portfolio and business, along with the ongoing success of our value add renovation pipeline and platform initiatives, gives us confidence in our ability to deliver resilient performance.

And now, operator, I’d like to open it up for questions.

Conference Operator: Thank you, sir. At this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press 2 if you would wish to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.

Our first question is coming from Cooper Clark with Wells Fargo. Line is live.

Cooper Clark, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Hey. Thank you for taking the question this morning. Paul, I was wondering if you could talk about the multifamily transaction market in DC. Curious if you’ve seen any buyers taking contrarian bets on the metro and where you’re seeing deals, if any, get done today from a cap rate perspective?

Paul McDermott, CEO, Elm Communities: Sure, Cooper. So just stepping back for a second, my overall observation would be that the living sector is continuing to do well. We’re seeing continual capital flows into it. We have the agencies here. So we see continued liquidity in the debt markets.

All of the lenders are active. The agencies are fairly aggressive and the debt funds are feeding kind of the higher LTV requirements and getting paid for it. And the life companies are still playing well in that 50% to 55% loan to value. I think from the equity perspective, the change that we’ve seen probably this year, are really the odysseys as their queues coming down, reentering with strategic capital allocations and really looking for AUM. The investors that we talked to in the DMV, Cooper, they’re I think their perspective is they’re looking at national construction starts down, as we said in our remarks, down 77%.

In 2026, we’ll be over 80 down, as I mentioned in my remarks. You’re balancing that with watching single family mortgage originations at their lowest point in thirty years. And, I look at Washington, D. C, for the fifth quarter in the row, we’re one of the top three, in rental growth. And I think investors are concluding when they look at this region that when they look at 2026 through 2028, there’s a nice runway for rental growth.

So the cap rates that we are seeing and that that’s translated into, our the core buyer profile is, I think, a little bit more competitive, and we’ve seen cap rates as low as 4.25%, up to 5%, looking at levered IRRs between 911%. The core plus buyers still solid in that 4.75% to 5.25 cap rate range, looking at 11% to 13% levered IRRs. And then value add, I think that’s kind of low to mid-5s, depending on vintage and performance, but that levered IRR is really in the 13% to 15% range. I’d say the one thing that we’ve observed over the last twelve eighteen months is that discount to replacement cost is shrinking in some of our stronger submarkets here. And so we feel pretty optimistic just about the continued investment sales activity that we’re seeing in the region, Cooper.

Cooper Clark, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Awesome. Thank you very much. And then could you also just touch on the addition of Ron to your Board from a high level and walk us through that process, specifically from a timing perspective as it relates to the announcement of your strategic review?

Paul McDermott, CEO, Elm Communities: Well, the announcement let’s start there. The announcement for the strategic review, we made that decision last year coming out of our strategic retreat. And just the Board felt it was necessary to look at options to maximize shareholder value. The process for Ron getting on our Board was Ron is a well known entity. And our Board, as we’ve done over the last several years, our Board continues to look at a refreshment process.

And I think Ron was just the appropriate candidate. We enjoy his skill sets and his operating history and really looking forward to working with him and gaining valuable insights from him.

Cooper Clark, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Great. Thank you very much for taking the questions.

Paul McDermott, CEO, Elm Communities: Sure, Cooper.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ann Chan with Green Street. Your line is live.

Ann Chan, Analyst, Green Street: Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So could you elaborate on what’s driving the acceleration of the Wi Fi initiative income? And does this imply a corresponding acceleration in the rollout related expenses as well?

Tiffany Butcher, COO, Elm Communities: Sure. And I can start with that. And obviously, Steve or others can feel free to chime in. But we started rolling out our Managed Wi Fi initiative last year with the first seven communities. We’re in the process of installing Phase two, which is our next four communities.

The installation process has gone a little faster than anticipated, particularly on Phase two. So, we’re able to get those projects live a little bit quicker. And the timing is critical on that given that we are entering our spring and summer leasing season when a lot of leases roll and we have the ability to roll residents onto that. So the ability to get those systems live earlier and get more residents signed up quickly is allowing us to accelerate our expectations for achieving managed WiFi income this year, which is what led us expecting to get in 2025 for managed Wi Fi.

Steve Freistat, CFO, Elm Communities: And Ann, this is Steve. And you’re correct. There’ll be an associated charge, so the expenses will see that, but to a lesser extent.

Ann Chan, Analyst, Green Street: Okay. Thank you. And, you know, just given that guidance isn’t changed, you know, but you’re seeing some more contribution from the Wi Fi income this year and also from bad debt recovery in Atlanta. Should we assume that there’s been a shift in revenue composition? Like in that context, are there any line items you see carrying potential downside in order to sort of the midpoint guidance?

Steve Freistat, CFO, Elm Communities: Yes, Ann. So obviously, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, we had a strong first quarter, first quarter that was above our initial expectations coming into the year. We talked about how we’re tracking post quarter end in line with seasonal norms. But when looking at the whole year and looking at the leasing that we need to get done, we’re just getting into the busy spring and summer leasing season. So we still have a lot of leases that will turn over the next few months.

And we feel good about the trends, but there is still in the next few months a lot to take care of. And so when looking at our guidance and the potential outcomes over the next the remainder of the year, we feel that keeping our guidance range unchanged at this point in time is appropriate. But we should know a lot more on our Q2 call, and we’ll look to update the guidance at that point.

Ann Chan, Analyst, Green Street: Okay, great. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And if there are no further questions, I’d like to turn the floor back to management for any closing comments.

Paul McDermott, CEO, Elm Communities: Thank you very much everybody. We appreciate your time today and we’re looking forward to talking to many of you in the coming weeks. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

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