Earnings call transcript: Enphase Energy Q2 2025 earnings beat forecasts, stock surges

Enphase Energy Inc. reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, showcasing a notable performance by surpassing both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.69, exceeding the expected $0.64, marking a 7.81% surprise. Revenue reached $363.2 million, slightly above the forecast of $361.89 million. Following the announcement, Enphase’s stock surged by 7.11% in after-hours trading, with shares climbing to $39.99. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has experienced significant volatility, having fallen nearly 60% over the past year, though current analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued.

Key Takeaways

• Enphase Energy exceeded EPS and revenue forecasts for Q2 2025.
• Stock price rose by 7.11% in after-hours trading.
• The company launched new products, including the 4th generation battery systems.
• Revenue guidance for Q3 2025 set between $330 million and $370 million.
• Enphase is focusing on innovation and market expansion.

Company Performance

Enphase Energy demonstrated robust performance in Q2 2025, maintaining its strong market position despite industry challenges. The company shipped 675.4 megawatt DC microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of IQ batteries. With a non-GAAP gross margin of 48.6% and a non-GAAP net income of $89.9 million, Enphase continues to leverage its technological advancements and market strategies to sustain growth. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.9, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, while operating with a moderate debt level.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $363.2 million, slightly above the forecast.
• Earnings per share: $0.69, surpassing the forecast of $0.64.
• Non-GAAP gross margin: 48.6%.
• Non-GAAP net income: $89.9 million.
• Cash and equivalents: $1.53 billion at the end of the quarter.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Enphase Energy’s Q2 2025 earnings report revealed an EPS of $0.69, outperforming the forecast of $0.64 by 7.81%. Revenue also slightly exceeded expectations, reaching $363.2 million compared to the anticipated $361.89 million. This performance marks a continuation of the company’s trend of exceeding market expectations, driven by strong operational execution and innovative product launches.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Enphase Energy’s stock experienced a significant increase in after-hours trading, rising by 7.11% to $39.99. This positive market reaction reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to consistently deliver strong financial results and its strategic focus on innovation and market expansion.

Outlook & Guidance

For the third quarter of 2025, Enphase Energy provided revenue guidance ranging from $330 million to $370 million. The company plans to ship between 190 and 210 megawatt hours of batteries, emphasizing its commitment to scaling production and enhancing product offerings. Enphase is also preparing for potential market shifts with innovative financing and product strategies. Analyst consensus from InvestingPro shows mixed sentiment, with price targets ranging from $28 to $86, reflecting the market’s varied outlook on the company’s growth trajectory. Get access to the full Pro Research Report for comprehensive analysis of Enphase’s market position and growth potential.

Executive Commentary

CEO Badri Kothandaraman highlighted the company’s focus on innovation, stating, "Innovation is the answer." He also emphasized the importance of entering new consumer markets with products like balcony solar and portable energy systems. Kothandaraman noted the long-term fundamentals for distributed energy remain strong, driven by rising demand and homeowner interest in energy independence.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential market saturation and increased competition in the solar industry.
• Supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts.
• Expiration of the 25D tax credit, potentially affecting market dynamics.
• Fluctuations in demand and inventory management challenges.
• Economic uncertainties that could influence consumer spending on solar solutions.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about Enphase’s strategies for supporting long-tail installers and addressing potential market consolidation. The company discussed its approach to managing inventory and demand fluctuations and detailed plans for navigating the expiration of the 25D tax credit.

Full transcript - Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Enphase Energy’s Second Quarter twenty twenty five Financial Results Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Zach Friedman. Please go ahead.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today’s conference call to discuss Enphase Energy’s second quarter twenty twenty five results. On today’s call are Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer Mandy Yang, our Chief Financial Officer and Raghu Balur, our Chief Products Officer. After the market closed today, Enphase issued a press release announcing the results for its second quarter ended 06/30/2025. During this conference call, Enphase management will make forward looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements related to our expected future financial performance market trends the capabilities of our technology and products and the benefits to homeowners and installers our operations, including manufacturing customer service and supply and demand anticipated growth in existing and new markets the timing of new product introductions and regulatory tax, tariff and supply chain matters. These forward looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties and our actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from these expectations.

For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10 ks and 10 Qs filed with the SEC. We caution you not to place any undue reliance on forward looking statements and undertake no duty or obligation to update any forward looking statements as a result of new information, future events or changes in expectations. Also, please note that financial measures used on this call are expressed on a non GAAP basis unless otherwise noted and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release furnished with the SEC on Form eight ks, which can also be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Now I’d like to introduce Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Badri?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today to discuss our second quarter twenty twenty five financial results. We reported quarterly revenue of $363,200,000 shipped 1,530,000 microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of batteries and generated free cash flow of $18,400,000 Our Q2 revenue included $40,400,000 of safe harbor revenue. As we exited Q2, our battery channel inventory was normal, while our microinverter channel inventory was slightly elevated. For the second quarter, we delivered 49% gross margin, 21% operating expenses and 27% operating income, all as a percentage of revenue on a non GAAP basis and including the net IRA benefit. Mandy will go into our financials later in the call.

Our global customer service NPS was 79% in Q2 compared to 77% in Q1. The average call wait time decreased to one point eight minutes, largely due to staffing and continued investment in automation. Let’s cover operations. Our global capacity is around 7,000,000 microinverters per quarter with 5,000,000 in The U. S.

In Q2, we shipped approximately 1,410,000 microinverters from our U. S. Contract manufacturers, booking 45x production tax credits. Our domestically produced microinverters help residential lease PPA providers and commercial asset owners to qualify for the 10% domestic content ITC added. We expect to ship approximately 1,200,000 microinverters from The U.

S. In Q3. We grew our domestic battery production in Q2, shipping 46.9 megawatt hours compared to 44.1 megawatt hours in Q1. We are building the IQ Battery 5P in The U. S.

Using domestically manufactured microinverters, thermal and battery management systems, as well as packaging, while sourcing cell packs from China. These batteries with greater than 45% domestic content, once again, can help our leads and PPA customers qualify for ITC bonuses. We remain on track to have non China cells by the end of this year, scaling into battery builds during the first half of twenty twenty six. Our U. S.-made batteries with non China cells can help customers qualify for domestic content ITC bonuses and meet foreign entity of concern or FIAC compliance as the criteria become increasingly stringent every year.

Let’s cover tariffs. In Q2, we observed a 2% gross margin impact due to tariffs. The originally proposed 145% tariff on Chinese products was ultimately reduced to 30% in May. As a result, our expected 6% to 8% margin headwind in Q3 has improved to an estimated 3% to 5%, even after accounting for new tariff increases on several non China countries, which are going to be effective August 1. This progress is a direct result of our team’s relentless execution in diversifying our supply chain.

We are not only mitigating tariff risks, we are future proofing our operations and positioning Enphase to lead under tightening FIAT compliance rules. Let’s cover the regions. Our U. S. And international revenue mix for Q2 was 7525%, respectively.

In The U. S, our revenue increased 3% in Q2 compared to Q1, primarily due to higher seasonal demand, partially offset by lower safe harbor revenue of $40,400,000 compared to $54,000,000 in Q1. The overall sell through of our products was up 17% in Q2 as compared to Q1. Let me make some brief comments on the market. The U.

S. Solar market is showing signs of improvement with rising battery attach rates and seasonal demand contributing to increased momentum. While we haven’t yet seen a material rush related to the expiring 25D homeowner tax credit, we expect our Gen C to build later in the year as more consumers move to secure the credit. As we head into 2026, The U. S.

Solar industry must evolve rapidly in response to the recent tax reconciliation bill. First, we expect an accelerated shift toward leases and PPA anchored by the 48E tax credit through 2027. Second, batteries will become central to every solar sale propelled by declining installation costs, long term tax credit support through 02/1933, and growing homeowner demand for energy resilience and participation in VPPs. Third, the industry must drive down customer acquisition and selling costs to remain competitive in a maturing market. We believe these structural shifts, coupled with the escalating utility rates and increasing grid instability, create a tailwind for sustained demand in the residential solar plus storage.

Enphase is executing a multi pronged strategy to lead the industry through these transitions. We are partnering closely with third party owners or PPOs to design innovative financing structures that maximize tax credit capture under the new rules. Our goal is to expand lease financing availability across a much wider installer base, including smaller and mid sized players. By removing friction in financing and by broadening access, we aim to accelerate residential solar adoption and ensure that more homeowners can participate in the clean energy transition. Our battery technology roadmap has been advancing rapidly with a laser focus on driving down installation costs and unlocking scale.

In June, we began shipping our fourth generation battery systems in The U. S, cutting backup costs by several thousand dollars. Our fifth generation battery is already under development and is expected to deliver a 50% increase in energy density and a major cost reduction, pushing the boundaries of performance and affordability. When paired with our next generation IQ nine microinverters, which are launching later this year, we expect to deliver one of the most compelling and integrated solar plus battery solutions in the industry designed to meet the needs of both homeowners and installers at scale. Finally, we are doubling down on our installer services platform to aggressively reduce soft costs across the industry.

With SolarGraph, our all in one design and proposal platform, Solar Lead Factory, our performance driven lead generation engine and EnphaseCare, our 20 fourseven expert backed homeowner support program, we offer a unique integrated toolkit to streamline operations, cut acquisition costs and boost installer productivity. We believe these assets position Enphase not just as a technology provider, but as a full stack partner to help the industry scale more efficiently. We are executing with urgency and look forward to sharing the progress in quarters ahead. In Europe, our revenue increased 11% in Q2 compared to Q1, while our overall sell through increased by 5%. The overall business environment across the region is still challenging, but we are maintaining our discipline on controlling the channel as well as expanding our served available market by introducing new products.

I’ll now provide some additional color on our key markets in Europe, The Netherlands, France, Germany and UK. In The Netherlands, demand remained soft in Q2 as the market transitions from a solar from solar only systems to integrated solar plus battery solutions. This shift is accelerating due to rising export penalties and the planned sunset of net metering at the end of twenty twenty six. We are uniquely positioned to lead in this evolving landscape with an installed base of approximately 500,000 residential solar systems. As net metering phases out in The Netherlands, we believe homeowners will increasingly turn to batteries, not only to maximize self consumption and backup power, but also to participate in VPP programs that offer new value streams in retail energy markets.

This transition can unlock a compelling $2,000,000,000 market and represents a strategic opportunity for us to deepen our utility partnerships, scale battery deployments and drive growth across the region. In France, the market remained subdued in Q2 as expected, with the industry anticipating a significant reduction in VAT on solar systems, which is set to take effect in October. This policy change is expected to reignite demand. Despite the current slowdown, France remains very critical for us, driven by our strong brand, technology leadership and the country’s relatively low solar penetration. We are seeing a very meaningful uptick in battery demand spurred by low feed in tariffs that makes self consumption far more valuable.

Our IQ Battery 5P with full backup capability has been well received by both homeowners and installers. In May, we introduced intelligent hot water heater steering to further boost self consumption and savings. This feature is expected to become a key driver in the French market, where heating water represents a substantial portion of household energy use. With these building blocks in place, we believe we are well positioned to capitalize on the next wave of growth in solar plus battery adoption in France. In Germany, we are ramping sales of our IQ battery 5P with FlexFace and IQ EV Charger two, both of which are gaining strong momentum with homeowners seeking all in one solutions.

We also launched our IQ balcony solar systems in Q2, unlocking a fast growing market segment for renters and apartment dwellers. These innovations combined with our deep partnership with some of the top installers are helping us return to growth and expand our presence in a strategically important market. The UK market continues to perform well for us as we strengthen our relationships with retail energy providers in the region, and our robust API platform is proving invaluable in supporting them. We are shipping our IQEV charger too into the market and plan to also introduce backup capability for our batteries in Q3 of this year, further expanding our energy resilience offering in the region. In Australia, momentum is building with the July 1 rebate from the government fueling strong interest in battery.

We are gearing up to launch our IQ Battery 5P with FlexPhase in the country imminently delivering powerful three phase backup and flexible power in order to meet dynamic DSO requirements. Our IQ 8P microinverters are also set to launch soon, supporting the latest high power solar modules in both residential and commercial markets. We have also introduced our next generation IQ EV chargers, expanding our electrification offering. To simplify retrofit installations, we are enabling compatibility between IQ seven and IQ eight microinverters on the same branch circuit, improving installer productivity and accelerating adoption. Let’s turn to our Q3 guidance.

We expect revenue to be in the range of $330,000,000 to $370,000,000 We anticipate continued growth in The U. S. And seasonal softness in Europe. We are approximately 75% booked to the midpoint of our revenue guidance. For IQ Batteries, we expect to ship between one hundred ninety and two ten megawatt hours during the quarter.

We are actively engaged with several KPO partners who are awaiting further clarity on safe harbor rules following the recent executive order, and we remain well positioned to support them once they finalize their plans. Let’s talk about new products, starting with IQ Batteries. In June, we began shipping our fourth generation battery systems to The U. S. The new battery delivers 30% more energy density, occupies 62% lesser wall space and reduces installation cost.

Our IQ meter collar simplifies whole home backup by integrating MID functionality, while the new combiner unifies the connection of solar, batteries, EV charging and load control into a single enclosure. Together, these innovations simplify backup installation, improve reliability and deliver superior homeowner value. The meter collar is now approved by 29 U. S. Utilities and growing.

And as I noted earlier, we believe our aggressive battery roadmap beyond the fourth generation will continue to push boundaries on performance, integration and cost. Our IQ batteries are built for more than just backup. They are designed to earn. With advanced APIs, our batteries can seamlessly integrate into VPPs in regulated markets like The U. S.

And participate in wholesale energy markets in eregulated regions such as Europe and Australia. Together, we are actively engaged in over 50 VPP programs worldwide with two ten megawatt hours of Enphase batteries enrolled, unlocking new revenue streams for homeowners and accelerating the transition to a more flexible, resilient grid. Let’s talk about microinverters. Our IQ eight microinverter family is now deployed in 58 countries and growing. Building on the global momentum, we are preparing to launch IQ nine, our most advanced microinverter yet.

Powered by cutting edge gallium nitride technology, IQ nine is built for the future, supporting higher DC input currents, higher AC voltages and three phase compatibility. With four twenty seven watt peak output, IQ nine is optimized for pairing with the most powerful residential and commercial panels on the market. Internal pilots are already running at Enphase facilities, and we remain on track for full scale production in Q4. We believe IQ nine marks a major leap in performance and platform flexibility and importantly, unlocks a two gigawatt market opportunity by enabling us to serve four eighty volt three phase commercial systems in The U. S.

For the first time. Our commercial IQ8 P3P microinverters is building momentum with over eight fifty commercial sites deployed across The U. S, averaging 35 kilowatts per system and earning consistent positive feedback from the field. These two zero eight volt three phase microinverters now ship with U. S.

Domestic content, enabling the customers to benefit from the 10% ITC bonus adder, a significant edge for commercial asset owners. Both IQ 8P3P and IQ nine microinverters are expected to meet FIIA compliance, offering a powerful alternative in a market still dominated by Chinese equipment. The timing of IQ nine launch is strategic, delivering a high quality, reliable and policy aligned solution as the industry pivots towards a domestically compliant infrastructure. Let me come to Balcony Solar. Our IQ Balcony Solar product is now shipping into Germany and Belgium, with additional launches planned across Europe, Japan, India and Utah in the next few quarters.

Built on Enphase’s AC architecture, it enables homeowners to plug in anywhere between one and four panels directly into a standard wall outlet. No permits, no re boiling, and no complexity. A standout feature is sunlight backup, which allows critical appliances to stay powered during daytime outages, even without a battery, an industry first that sets us apart. On the portable power front, the IQ PowerPack 1,500 marks our entry into the direct to consumer energy frontier. We expect to scale significantly scale e commerce sales as the category opens a new channel for customer engagement and brand growth.

In parallel, we plan to expand the IQ PowerPack family into new regions, including Europe, India and Japan, while broadening use cases to address a wide spectrum of mobile energy needs. Let’s talk about EV charging. We are now shipping our next generation IQ EV Charger II into 18 countries across Europe, as well as Australia and New Zealand. This charger is designed to integrate seamlessly with Enphase solar and battery systems, while also performing as a high quality standalone solution. We recently earned EV Ready Certification in France, one of the country’s most rigorous standards, demonstrating our commitment to safety and performance.

Over the coming months, we plan to expand availability into more European countries, as well as Brazil, India, and introducing it back in The U. S, supporting the global shift to electrification with a trusted proven solution. Let me now share an update on our IQ bidirectional EV charger, which is expected to launch in middle of twenty twenty six. This 11 kilowatt solution is powered by three high performance microinverters built on a full GaN architecture, delivering exceptional efficiency and compact designs. Paired with the IQ meter collar in The U.

S, it enables seamless vehicle to home and vehicle to grid functionality with automatic black start. Together, they offer one of the lowest cost and simplest ways to provide whole home backup, even without solar or stationary batteries. Homeowners can just start with an EV, our bidirectional charger, and the meter collar, and then later can add solar or in phase batteries, depending on their preferences and energy goals. Built to ISO 15,100 eighteen-twenty standard and currently undergoing testing with multiple global OEMs, we believe this platform has the potential to redefine energy resilience by turning the EV into a flexible, grid aware energy asset for the home. Let’s talk about SolarGraph, our all in one platform purpose built for installers.

We are rolling out major enhancements, including seamless integration with our top DPO partners, powerful custom tariff builder, advanced dealer management tools and a dramatically simplified AI driven design experience. Every upgrade is designed to make SolarGraph more intuitive, intelligent and more indispensable. As it continues to evolve, SolarGraph is becoming a strategic growth engine for us, empowering installers to sell faster, design smarter and scale with confidence. The signing of the tax reconciliation bill marks a turning point for The U. S.

Solar industry, but adapting to change is core to Enphase’s DNA. Over the past several years, we have evolved from a single microinverter product company into a global energy technology leader. Today, we offer a full portfolio of microinverters, batteries, EV chargers and intelligent home energy management software. Our systems are deployed in more than 160 countries with over 4,900,000 Enphase powered homes worldwide. We are entering new consumer markets with products like balcony solar and portable energy systems.

And with our upcoming IQ nine microinverters, we expect to unlock the four eighty volt commercial solar market in The U. S, which is a major expansion of our addressable market and a key step into larger scale energy applications. We believe we are strongly positioned to lead through the next phase of industry transformation. Our product road map is accelerating with next generation microinverters and batteries focusing on lowering installation costs and simplifying installations. We are doubling down on our installer services platform to help drive soft costs and expand lease financing access across the industry.

The long term fundamentals for distributed energy remain powerful, rising demand, higher utility rates and growing homeowner interest in resilience and energy independence. As the market shifts, we will keep doing what we do best, innovating with purpose, moving fast and staying relentlessly focused on our customers. With that, I will turn the call over to Mandy for her review of our financial results. Mandy?

Mandy Yang, Chief Financial Officer, Enphase Energy: Thanks, Badri, and good afternoon, everyone. I will provide more details related to our 2025 financial results as well as our business outlook for the third quarter of twenty twenty five. We have provided reconciliations of these non GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release posted today, which can also be found in the IR section of our website. Total revenue for Q2 was $363,200,000 We shipped approximately 675.4 megawatt DC or microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of IQ batteries in the quarter. Q2 revenue included $40,400,000 of safe harbor revenue.

As a reminder, we define safe harbor revenue as any sales made to customers who plan to install the inventory over more than a year. Non GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 48.6% compared to 48.9% in Q1. GAAP gross margin was 46.9% for Q2 compared to 47.2% in Q1. Non GAAP gross margin without net IIF benefit for Q2 was 37.2 percent compared to 38.3% in Q1. Reciprocal tariffs impacted our gross margins by approximately 2% in Q2.

Given non GAAP gross margin for Q2 also included $41,500,000 of net IIA benefits. Non GAAP operating expenses were $77,800,000 for Q2 compared to $79,400,000 for Q1. GAAP operating expenses were $133,500,000 for Q2 compared to $136,300,000 for Q1. GAAP operating expenses for Q2 included $49,500,000 of staff based compensation expenses, dollars 2,900,000.0 of amortization for acquired intangible assets, and $3,300,000 of restructuring and asset impairment charges. On a non GAAP basis, income from operations for Q2 was $98,600,000 compared to $94,600,000 for Q1.

On a GAAP basis, income from operations was $37,000,000 for Q2, compared to $31,900,000 for Q1. On a non GAAP basis, net income for Q2 was $89,900,000 compared to $89,200,000 for Q1. This resulted in non GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.69 for Q2 compared to $0.68 for Q1. GAAP net income for Q2 was $37,100,000 compared to $29,700,000 for Q1. This resulted in GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.28 for Q2 compared to $0.22 for Q1.

We exited Q2 with a total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balance of $1,530,000,000 flat when compared to Q1. As part of our $1,000,000,000 share repurchase program authorized by our Board of Directors in July 2023, we repurchased 702,948 shares of our common stock in Q2 at an average price of $42.67 per share for a total of approximately $30,000,000 We have a remaining $268,700,000 authorized for further share repurchases. In addition, we spent approximately $3,000,000 by withholding shares to cover taxes for employees divesting in Q2. That reduced the diluted shares by 58,332 shares. We expect to continue this anti dilution plan.

In Q2, we generated $26,600,000 in cash flow from operations and $18,400,000 in free cash flow. Capital expenditure was $8,200,000 for Q2, compared to $14,600,000 for Q1. Now let’s discuss our outlook for the third quarter of twenty twenty five. We expect our revenue for Q3 to be within a range of $330,000,000 to $370,000,000 which includes shipments of 190 to two ten megawatt hours of IQ batteries. We expect GAP gross margin to be within a range of 41% to 44%, including approximately three to five percentage points of reciprocal tariff impact.

We expect non GAP gross margin to be within a range of 43% to 46% with net IRF benefit and 33% to 36% before net IRF benefit, including the reciprocal tariff impact. Non GAAP gross margin excludes stock based compensation expense and acquisition related amortization. We expect the net IIA benefit to be between 34,000,000 and $38,000,000 on estimated shipments of 1,200,000 units of U. S. Microinverters in We expect our GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of 130,000,000 to $134,000,000 including approximately $52,000,000 estimated for stock based compensation expenses, acquisition related amortization, and restructuring and asset impairment charges.

We expect our non GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of $78,000,000 to $82,000,000 For the year 2025, we expect our GAAP tax rate of 19% to 21% and a non GAAP tax rate of 15% to 17%, including IIA benefits. With that, I will open the line for questions.

Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. And your first question today will come from Prandeep Satish with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Prandeep Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Thanks. Good afternoon, Badri. I think you mentioned in your remarks partnering with TPO providers and introducing some creative financing structures that could help maximize the tax credit capture. Can you just elaborate on what those types of structures could look like and when you plan to launch that? And I guess is the goal here to kind of take your relationships with the long tail installers and get them onto a TPO platform?

And then maybe just to follow-up on that, what is just to level set, what is your market share with TPO providers today after the recent bankruptcies in the space? And I guess, how do you expect that to evolve in 2026?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: So I’ll start with the second question, you know, first. You know, first of all, our overall market share in The U. S. Is quite healthy, as you all know, and it is available in public analytic reports. We have a healthy share at both for both cash loan customers as well as healthy share with the TPO customers.

We have not broken it out, and we do have healthy shares. We work with every one of these TPO customers. We work with every single one, and right now we are in deep discussions with them, because what we have is we know how to service long tail installers. We have the relationships with the long tail installers. And if we can, you know, if we can bring lease financing access to the long tail, we can prevent a market erosion, overall market erosion.

So that’s what we are aiming to do. And we are working with a lot of the GPOs. We aren’t ready to share more details yet, but we will share those very soon. Yeah, perhaps in the next earnings call. And we are looking to move on it aggressively.

So let me leave it at that. So add a couple of more things. You know, I’ve seen many of the analyst reports. They all say, you know, The US TAM is about 4.5 gigawatts for solar in 2025, and I think it’s approximately a couple of gigawatt hours for batteries in 2025. And, you know, what is the view for it to be in 2026?

There are various numbers. Our, you know, my personal view is that we expect a 20% drop in TAM in 2026 due to 25D. So there are three things which we believe, you know, we need to do in order to mitigate the market reduction. One is what we just talked about, bringing lease financing to the long tail, how to facilitate that most effectively with our strong DPO partnerships. The second one, working on driving down installation costs.

And there we talked about batteries. We just released our fourth generation batteries. Batteries, in general, are ramping up in The US. They are getting more cost effective. I just told you that, you know, I am working on my fifth generation battery’s schedule to come out in exactly a year from now, and, you know, in that fifth generation battery, we are able to improve the energy density by more than 50%, and we therefore can make a major improvement in cost, and hence installation costs.

And also IQ nine has got a lot of innovation on it with GaN in order to reduce the overall cost. So we are looking forward to basically introducing world class products which have very efficient footprint and which will bring down the end installation costs. The third one is an interesting one, is lead generation. The customer acquisition cost is very high in the solar industry, and of the order of anywhere between zero seven zero dollars a watt to $1 a watt, and Enphase needs to do a lot more in order to reduce that. And I think we are taking up that, you know, once again, we are launching aggressive initiatives where we will be able to generate leads and pass on to our installers.

Also note that we have a fleet that is 5,000,000 homes. You know, earlier in the past, installation may not have had time installers may not have had time to focus on the upgrade market, but now it is going to be lucrative for them to focus on that market too. So three things are which we are going to do well under our control while working with our partners is bring lease financing to the long tail, make world class products driving down installation costs. Third is help reduce lead generation costs across the industry.

Prandeep Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Got it. That’s very helpful. Maybe kind of switching gears, you mentioned that the micro channel is slightly elevated. We know demand is going to decline in 2026 once the 25D credit expires. I guess, how intend do on managing field inventories with distributors for the balance of the year?

Do you plan to undership micros in either Q3 or Q4 to help reduce inventories? Or do you think inventories could just get rightsized more organically if we see maybe a pull forward of demand or some safe harbors in the second half?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: I think you answered the question yourself. Basically, this is exactly what we expect. We expect 25D increase in demand, which will come from the channel and make the channel at reasonable levels by the end of the year. Thank you.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Philip Shen, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Hey, thanks for taking my questions. In terms of the Q3 guide, sorry if I

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: missed it, but did you

Philip Shen, Analyst, ROTH Capital: share how much safe harbor you expect in the Q3 revenue? And then you talked about not yet seeing the pull forward of demand yet. How do you expect that to manifest? Would it be more of a Q4, element? Or do you think there could be an upside surprise to Q3?

And then in terms of, the elevated channel, how did we get to elevated channel levels? Was there a pause earlier in the year? Or did you over ship into the channel? And what are the levels? Historically, you got rightsized recently, were at eight to ten weeks.

Are we talking about twelve weeks now or something higher? Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Right. So first of all, the Q3 revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor. As I said, we are working with several TPO partners, and they are all looking at the recently, at the recent executive order, and they are waiting for further clarity. And once they have that clarity, they will take the actions. From our side, what we are doing is to ensure that we are ready in terms of capacity.

You know, any time that they want the product, we are going to be ready in order to service them. On your 25D question, I think we will see the 25D demand possibly in early Q4 is what we will start seeing. You know, right now we aren’t seeing it, but we still have August and September left, so that’s what I expect, that we’ll start seeing it soon. I’m sure that installers, you know, some installers will have to make workforce changes. They may have to add temporary teams in order to feed the rush, and that those all take a little bit of time.

And so I’m sure it’s coming in Q4. The question on channel, we are completely transparent to you. It is we are actually in very good shape in channel management. We, you know, our experience in the last two years on the quantity of under shipment, etcetera, that we had, we have recognized that’s an anomaly, and we will never get to that stage. So whenever, you know, I say slightly above, it should mean slightly above eight to 10.

That’s what it means.

Philip Shen, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Okay. Thanks, Badri. My follow-up question is on something you said earlier. You said your assumption for ’26 is a TAM that’s 20% lower. Can you walk us through the assumptions of how you get to the 20%, the baseline for loan versus TPO versus cash, etcetera?

And then separately, can you if you can, I know you won’t guide to Q4 and Q1, but how are you thinking about Q4 and Q1 from a cadence standpoint if you are able to share? Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Yes. So we expect, you know, approximately a 20% in TAM. The way I’m thinking about it, just to tell you, you know, simple straightforward is, let us say the 4.5 has got, you know, two gigawatts of lease and 2.5 gigawatts of cash and loan. I expect basically the lease, you know, the leasing market to be increasing a little bit, and the cash and loan market to decrease by a lot. So the end picture will, in our opinion, the end picture may look like 2.5 gigawatts lease and one gigawatt cash and loan in 2026.

Of course, everybody’s estimate is different, but our rationale is the following. The key markets in The US are basically, you take a look at California. If you take a look at California, utility prices are high in California. Payback today is six to eight years in 2025. And with ITC not being there for a cash loan purchase, or cash purchase, I should say, the payback is going to stretch by two years.

Six to eight will become something like an eight to ten. Still very attractive economics with the twenty five year product. We see the same economics, know, similar economics even in the East Coast, where the utility rates are high. And in the East Coast, VPPs are popular. Puerto Rico, for example, most of the business gets transacted on lease, so we see that market to be remaining intact.

So the markets that probably will be hit hard is the Midwest, you know, Central and even Southeast, where the utility rates are in general on the lower side. But that’s the big picture. 4.5 gigawatts in 2025, we think it will go down to 3.5 gigawatts in 2026. The lease market will slightly expand two to 2.5. The cash and loan will go from 2.5 to one.

That’s the math, and that’s my opinion. It’s not a fact.

Dushant, Analyst Representative, Jefferies: You.

Conference Operator: And the next question will come from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Guess, Badri, just following up on your strategic initiatives in a declining TAM environment. I appreciate you guys have an action plan already sort of in place. I I mean, when you talk about working with the long tail on TPO and financing and then the lead gen, can you maybe give us a sense how quickly you can implement those strategies and then how much incremental cost you would have to incur?

I would imagine maybe the OpEx has some incremental cost or some investment required to be able to start driving those two initiatives. And then I guess my follow-up would just be in this environment where you just outlined a potential 20% reduction in volume, You’re looking at ways to maintain as much of that volume as possible. Would pricing actions to mitigate some of that TAM loss and capture more volume be part of the strategy? Maybe walk us through what you’re thinking around pricing in that type of environment as well. Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Yeah. In terms of operating expenses, you know, we don’t anticipate any major change because what we are really doing is will be ultimately lucrative for the TPOs. It is we are essentially making sure that that demand is not lost. The long tail has got access, so the TPOs should have more business. So, you know, the operating costs for us in order to facilitate this is not meaningfully higher.

In terms of pricing actions, you know, what I have told you is the following. Our, the way we are going on batteries, for example, we are going to have, you know, we already reduced the installation cost, for example, with the fourth generation product. Now we are taking that and cutting it down by another big factor, basically increasing the energy density. We are going to prismatic cells, And so once we do that, what happens is our margins fundamentally improve. Similarly on IQ nine, when we go to the bidirectional GaN switch, what happens is once we start running GaN at an increased frequency, then what happens is we are able to optimize the rest of the bill of materials.

Ultimately, we are able to produce 10% power, maybe even 20% power, at a similar cost structure as before. So innovation is the answer. Innovation is the answer. So we are innovating on batteries. We are innovating on IQ nine.

As I said, we are also going to get, for the first time, we are going to introduce a three phase four eighty volt product. So that’s so coming back to pricing. So once we have fundamentally altered the cost structure, then the pricing action is simple. It allows us room to do the correct pricing for the consumer, depending on the value that we have.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Dushant, Analyst Representative, Jefferies: Hi. This is Dushant here for Julian. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe the first one, could you discuss how the dynamics will work for the four q safe harboring? As we understand it, the system needs to be installed by year end to get the credit, right?

So will we see loan originations in 4Q given that uncertainty on timing of install?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: No, I think safe harbor, basically the rules are that the TPO partners, and I’m speaking for them, the TPO partners have approximately a year until June 30 in order to finalize their safe harbor inventory and strategy. So what I guess you’re talking about is the 25D. The 25D, yes, correct. You’re talking about 25D is where expenditure means it is both the customer has to pay the consumer has to pay for it, as well as the system should be installed by the year end.

Dushant, Analyst Representative, Jefferies: Yes. So in that instance, do you think we will see because I know that you haven’t seen installed yet and

Maheep Mandloi, Analyst, Mizuho: you haven’t seen that demand pull

Dushant, Analyst Representative, Jefferies: in yet in 3Q. So you if you expect to see that in 4Q, do you think that’ll actually happen because there might be some uncertainty on loan originations, right?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: We’ll go on Yeah. Our opinion is it will happen. Our installers are experts. They know what to do. And I think right now they need to make sure they expand their crews so that they start to cater to the demand rush.

But they have a lot of experience. They can get solar installations done quickly. So I do expect it to happen.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Dushant, Analyst Representative, Jefferies: Thanks, guys. Can you talk

Colin Rusch, Analyst, Oppenheimer: about your ability to upsell existing home hours on either chargers or batteries and kind of what those unit economics look like as a combined sale and your access to those customers through your partners or can you go direct to those folks?

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy0: Hey, this is Raghu. Yes, we mentioned, that is a very important segment of the market that we are looking at. Of course, the customer acquisition cost is significantly lower because it’s already an existing customer. But I think from a product point of view, there is a fundamental advantage. We are AC coupled.

What that means is that we don’t have to touch the existing solar system. You can come in and add a battery, you can

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: come in and add an EV charger, and if you need to, which is very likely going to be

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy0: the case, you may need to expand your solar system as well, which is also very simple with an AC coupled solution. So intrinsically, has significant advantages both for customer acquisition as well as from a product point of view. There’s no rip and replace, you don’t have to pull out any inverters, etcetera. You just leave them alone and you can come in and add the solution. And just by simply by adding the battery, if there’s an existing if there’s a VPP program that you want to participate in, the battery can get enrolled in that VPP program as well.

So we see a lot of advantages to that and that market for us is very large. I mean, we have an installed base worldwide for about 4,900,000 homes. And the majority of them are here in The U. S. So it is a very important market segment that we are going after.

Colin Rusch, Analyst, Oppenheimer: And then my follow-up is on the non EU, non U. S. Markets. Obviously, you’ve had some success in Latin America, Australia and other places.

Maheep Mandloi, Analyst, Mizuho: Can you

Colin Rusch, Analyst, Oppenheimer: talk a little bit about what growth looks like outside of those two main markets and how we should think about that as a contributor to the balance of this year and into next year?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Yeah. In terms of Australia, for example, Australia was you know, flat in growth, I mean, to down in growth in the last year, year or so, and even for the first six months of this year. But what happened is the new government. The new government came and introduced a battery rebate. And because it is a very lucrative battery rebate, the battery attach rate, everybody believes the battery attach rate is going to go up from like 30% to like 90%.

So that’s a huge opportunity for us. We are already seeing that in installations happening. And we are introducing a few products for them. For example, Australia needs three phase backup, and we are going to be introducing our flex phase battery imminently, any day now, in Australia. In addition, we are also, you know, introducing our high powered microinverters to capitalize on commercial opportunities.

And in fact, Australia is getting an entire facelift of products. So all of them will be available in Australia in the next couple of months. So we expect Australia to resume growth starting from Q3. India. India, I haven’t talked about it too much, but in India, what we are doing is now we have an IQ8, full IQ8P system, which is very cost effective for the high panel wattages that are available.

In addition, we have the battery. And India, you lose power, for example, five times a day in India. So resilience is top of mind for them. Having said that, these batteries, you know, are, you know, what we cater to is the premium clientele. For example, premium billers and, you know, those will have both IQ microinverters plus IQ battery.

It’s a beautiful system. It’s compatible to three phase, and give you complete energy independence. So we are seeing India grow steady. It’s not hockey stick, but every quarter it’s higher than the previous quarter. The next one I’ll talk about is Japan.

We introduced a product for Japan very recently in the middle of Q2, just a few months ago. In fact, last week, there was a roundtable. I met with all the Japan installers. As you know, Japan takes a little bit of time to ramp up, but once it is there, it’s a big opportunity for us. So Japan is something we are very excited about.

We expect to incrementally go there. We are already going to introduce new products there. You know, the balcony solar product with the small systems gateway is going to be ideal for Japan. We will be introducing batteries into Japan next year. So we’ve got a nice roadmap for Japan.

You know, right now, they have microinverters, and we are figuring out how to ramp those along with our installers. That’s what we’re doing.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Maheep Mandloi, Analyst, Mizuho: Hey, thanks for taking the questions. The first one just on the tariff impact, could you quantify the tariff impact on the Q3 earnings guidance? And kind of follow-up on that on the Section two thirty two polysilicon investigation, it looks like there could be tariffs on silicon carbide, which I think is like 5% of the cost. Just any thoughts on what tariffs could be expected on silicon carbide? Is IQ nine the way to kind of offset that or something else you have on that as well?

Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Just to answer that question first, we don’t use silicon carbide, so that is not that does not affect us. Now the other question you asked is the tariff. So let me give you a full download on that. We had 145% China tariffs in the last earnings call. So at that time, we projected an impact of six to 8% in the gross margin.

Subsequently, in May, the 145% dropped to 30%. However, now, effective August 1, there are reciprocal tariffs with a lot of countries. For example, Malaysia is 25%. Vietnam is 20%. So now, I mean, basically there is no safe haven to call it.

So wherever we are, we got some kind of a tariff. And right now, I mean, when we said 3% to 5%, let me take the midpoint. 4% is our gross margin impact due to tariff. If I take that as a given, that 4% if you break down, 1% is from microinverters. 3% is from batteries.

So that 1% microinverters tells you that we have been working on this problem for a long time on microinverters, a couple of years ago. So we already diversified our supply chain in microinverters, and we can adjust, yet there still going to be a small component of the tariffs. But that impact is only 1%. On the battery side, we obviously have the impact on the cells, on the cells. And so the only way we can avoid that is by making the cells, for example, in The US, but the labor cost in The US being high, the cost is awash between the two.

So how do we get back? How do we get that 4%? How do we make that a very small number? That doesn’t matter. So the way we will do that is with our fifth generation battery, which is fundamentally going to alter our gross margin structure.

You know, essentially, our gross margins will be a step change better than the third or fourth generation battery. So you know, the way we should think about it as the tariffs right now is 4%, it might get a little smaller as you hit Q1 and Q2, four might become three ish, and then would go away once we launch the fifth generation bed.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Eric Stine with Craig Hallum. Please go ahead.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy1: Hey, thanks for sneaking me in here at the end. Just curious, you mentioned that some of the TPO is waiting on guidance and set to figure out their safe harbor plans. I mean, any thoughts on when the treasury might issue that guidance? I mean, I’ve seen a number of potential dates and it seems that no one really knows, but I would love your opinion of when that might be?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: We are in the same boat as you. We do not know when the Treasury is going to release their guidance, and that’s, you know, our TPO partners are a lot more experts at this. They are looking at it every day. And their plans, unfortunately, are changing, too. So, you know, right now it is wait and see to look for the nuances of the guidance from Treasury and then execute on the safe harbor.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy1: Okay. I’ll jump back into line. Thanks.

Conference Operator: Your next question today will come from Dylan Nassen with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Colin Rusch, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. I just wanted to follow-up and see if there’s any additional kind of demographic information you could share about the TPO players that you’re currently in discussions with. Are these like large existing players? Where do they sit kind of geographically? And then as a follow-up, have you identified any potential obstacles when it comes to helping the long tail shift to the leases?

So just thinking about, are there any customers saying they’d rather try to sell cash only systems without the credits rather than maybe add the complexity of offering leases? Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Yeah, we work with every TPO, and we are having conversations with almost 80% of them right now on safe harbor. Your second question? Can you repeat your second Yeah, yeah.

Colin Rusch, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Sorry, yeah, just in terms of what your customers are saying, are there any that are kind of indicating they’d rather just try to sell cash systems without credits?

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Of course, of course. There are a lot of them who think that, you know, for example, in California, if especially, yeah, let me take actually San Diego, right? San Diego has got a six year payback today solar plus batteries. And that might go to eighty year payback. So some of our installers, I mean, we are having, just to tell you this, we are having installer roundtables every week.

And every week is from a different region to exactly ask the same question. How are you managing this transition? Some of them are absolutely confident of selling cash and loans still. Some of them are, you know, are pivoting towards lease and PPA. So the answer is mixed.

Conference Operator: Your next question today will come from Mark Strouth with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Prandeep Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Great. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. At this point, I’ll just stick with one. A clarifying question on an earlier topic.

On the helping your tail customers get financing, I understand you’re going to give us more details sometime soon, but is using your own balance sheet part of that potential scenarios that you’re looking at? Or is it really just kind of data and partnerships and that kind of thing? I’m just curious about if you’re looking to lever your balance sheet at all.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Yeah, you know, we are not looking at doing anything with the balance sheet, but if that changes, we’ll let you know. However, what’s important is we have a history of all of these installers. We know exactly how much volume they did. We know exactly their customer service NPS Net Promoter Score. We know everything about the installers.

We know what drives them. We work very closely with them. So when it comes to vetting, vetting things, we are an ideal position to do so. And of course, you know, we since we designed the products, we also can do, you know, the service, for example. The service and maintenance is easy.

Most of the problems can be solved remotely, 90% of the problems. So we have our data analytics team which can solve those problems. Yeah, let me leave it at that. Okay, thank you, Badri.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from David Arcara with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy2: Hey, thanks so much for taking my question here. You know, I was

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: just wondering if you might be

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy2: able to elaborate as you look into 2026. You talked about a bunch of product innovation efforts to lower cost. I was wondering if there are any other kind of internal cost reduction efforts, potentially efforts to lower overhead, OpEx, for example, anything you’re exploring there? Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Absolutely. I mean, look, we the market has had a demand problem over the last couple of years. And over the last couple of years, where our demand has dropped, we have continuously adjusted our expenses without compromising on R and D, our customer service. And we always be doing that. For us, it is a process, not an event.

And we think about expenses as, don’t think about expenses as only labor. We have to think about expenses as labor plus non labor. For example, we ask the question where do we need the software tool? Can we eliminate the software tool and do something else which is more intelligent? We ask those questions all the time.

So in light of any reduced demand, which we are trying to mitigate, but you know, let us say we are not able to mitigate the demand drop, you know, we will continuously adjust our expenses.

Conference Operator: And your next question today will come from Nicole Gossi with Bank of America. Please go ahead. And our next question today will come from Chris D’Anginos with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy3: Yes. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to go back to some of the comments on the strategy and there’s been a big focus here on marketing to the long tail. And you’ve mentioned getting, lease financing to them, improving lead generation. But I guess there’s an argument that with the adoption of TPO, maybe there’s additional consolidation in industry.

So maybe focusing on the other end, maybe the fat part of the tail here, is there any changes or anything you’re doing in strategy to maybe expand your share with some of the bigger TPO providers? How are you, I guess, maybe looking at those relationships? And is there anything you can do to improve those relationships? Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Absolutely. I mean, there is a myth that we don’t work with the TPOs. That’s totally wrong. We work with every TPO. We look for opportunities to make them successful.

And what does that mean? It is basically total installation cost. It’s total installation time. O and M, meaning taking care of servicing. So work with every one of those GPOs on these issues.

You know, for example, the fourth generation battery, and with the meter collar, our cost for backup, and, you know, our cost for backup is similar, meaning slightly, only slightly higher than the cost for no backup or grid tied options. So what I’m trying to tell you is that the products that we do, we collaborate closely with the TPOs, we collaborate closely with them on service opportunities. And since we work with every one of them, you know, we have deep partnerships there. And we’ll be working on it even more aggressively in order to gain more market share.

Zach Friedman, Investor Relations, Enphase Energy3: That’s it for me. Thanks.

Conference Operator: Seeing no further questions, this will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Badri Kafandaraman for any closing remarks.

Badri Kothandaraman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Enphase Energy: Thanks for joining us today and for your continued support of Enphase. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Thank you.

Conference Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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