Earnings call transcript: Erie Indemnity’s Q1 2025 results disappoint investors

Erie Indemnity Company reported its Q1 2025 earnings, revealing a mixed financial performance. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, falling short of the forecasted $3.23. Despite a revenue increase to $989.4 million, which surpassed expectations of $986.49 million, the stock declined 11.63% in after-hours trading, closing at $361.19, down from the previous close of $408.73. This decline was attributed to investor concerns over the earnings miss and rising operational costs. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company maintains a GREAT financial health score of 3.05, despite trading above its calculated Fair Value.

Key Takeaways

• EPS of $2.65 missed the forecast of $3.23.
• Revenue of $989.4 million slightly exceeded expectations.
• Stock fell 11.63% in after-hours trading.
• Increased operational costs and technology investments impacted earnings.
• Continued expansion of Business Auto 2.0 product.

Company Performance

Erie Indemnity reported a net income of $138.4 million for Q1 2025, an increase from $124.6 million in Q1 2024. Operating income rose by 9% to over $151 million, driven by a 13% increase in management fee revenue. With a robust revenue growth of 16.1% over the last twelve months and a conservative beta of 0.46, the company has demonstrated resilience in volatile markets. However, the company faced challenges, including a decrease in policyholder surplus to $9.2 billion from $9.3 billion. The insurance industry is grappling with economic instability and increased severe weather events, affecting overall market conditions.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $989.4 million, up from forecasted $986.49 million.
• Earnings per share: $2.65, down from forecasted $3.23.
• Net income: $138.4 million, up from $124.6 million YoY.
• Operating income: $151 million, a 9% increase YoY.
• Policyholder surplus: $9.2 billion, a slight decrease from $9.3 billion.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Erie Indemnity’s EPS of $2.65 missed the forecast of $3.23 by 18%. Despite revenue surpassing expectations, the earnings miss was significant, reflecting increased costs and impacting investor sentiment. This marks a departure from previous quarters where the company typically met or exceeded forecasts.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Erie Indemnity’s stock fell by 11.63%, a significant drop reflecting investor disappointment. The stock’s movement pushed it closer to its 52-week low of $345.09. The broader market trend showed resilience, indicating that Erie Indemnity’s decline was more company-specific due to the earnings miss and cost concerns.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Erie Indemnity remains focused on long-term growth and stability. The company plans to continue its technology modernization efforts and expand its Business Auto 2.0 product. Despite current challenges, Erie Indemnity maintains a positive outlook, with EPS forecasts for future quarters ranging from $3.46 to $3.88. InvestingPro data reveals two notable strengths: the company has maintained dividend payments for 30 consecutive years and achieved strong returns over the last decade. For deeper insights into Erie Indemnity’s performance and prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

Executive Commentary

CEO Tim Macastro emphasized the company’s commitment to providing "protection and peace of mind for millions of policyholders." CFO Julie Pokowski highlighted the focus on service, stating, "We’ve operated with a focus of being above all in service." These comments underscore Erie Indemnity’s strategic priorities amid external pressures.

Risks and Challenges

• Rising operational costs, including technology investments.
• Economic instability affecting the insurance industry.
• Increased severe weather events impacting claims and costs.
• Policyholder surplus decline, indicating potential financial strain.
• Competitive pressures necessitating rate increases.

Erie Indemnity continues to navigate a challenging environment, balancing growth initiatives with cost management to enhance shareholder value.

Full transcript - Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Q1 2025:

Unidentified Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Erie Indemnity Company First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. This call was prerecorded and there will be no question and answer session following the recording. Now I’d like to introduce your host for the call, Vice President of Investor Relations, Scott Biohars.

Scott Biohars, Vice President of Investor Relations, Erie Indemnity Company: Thank you, and welcome everyone. We appreciate you joining us for this recorded discussion about our first quarter results. This recording will include remarks from Tim Macastro, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Julie Pokowski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release and financial supplement were issued yesterday afternoon after the market closed and are available within the Investor Relations section of our website userinsurance.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today’s discussion may contain forward looking remarks that reflect the company’s current views about future events.

These remarks are based on assumptions subject to known and unexpected risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may cause results to differ materially from those described in these remarks. For information on important factors that may cause such differences, please see the safe harbor statements in our Form 10 k filing with the SEC filed yesterday and in the related press release. This prerecorded call is the property of your indemnity company. It may not be reproduced or rebroadcast by any other party without the prior written consent of your indemnity company.

With that, we’ll move on

Tim Macastro, President and Chief Executive Officer, Erie Indemnity Company: to Tim’s remarks. Tim? Thanks Scott and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before we dive into our first quarter results I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge a true historic milestone for Erie Insurance. A few days ago on April 20 we marked the one hundredth anniversary of our company’s founding.

When I reflect on this milestone it’s amazing to think about the impact this company has had over the past century. Protection and peace of mind for millions of policyholders stable and successful careers for tens of thousands of employees and agents, millions of dollars and thousands of hours of time contributed to our communities and a century of innovation resilience and service. It’s an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the strong foundation that was built one hundred years ago and our commitment to the values and business principles of our founders. Fittingly we’ve been celebrating this milestone for ways that connect to those values. Last month we provided each employee $100 to contribute to a charity of their choice.

So far nearly half a million dollars has been allocated to various nonprofits across our geographic footprint. Of course as we look back at what brought us here we’re also focused on what’s ahead. We’re taking actions to remain competitive in this complex and constantly evolving business landscape and I’m confident in the strategic approach we’re taking to long term growth and stability. With that I’d like to turn it over to Chief Financial Officer Julie Palkowski to share details on our first quarter financial performance. Julie?

Julie Pokowski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Erie Indemnity Company: Thank you Tim and good morning everyone. As Tim mentioned, this past week, Erie Insurance celebrated a significant achievement, its centennial celebration. For one hundred years, Erie has operated with a focus of being above all in service, a timeless differentiator from our competitors. Our foundation of financial strength in keeping the human touch at the center of everything we do has helped us to navigate countless challenges and weather many ups and downs, particularly in more difficult times such as significant weather events and uncertain economic and market conditions. So let’s start by discussing the first quarter performance of the Erie Insurance Exchange, the insurance operations we manage.

The significant rate increases we implemented in 2023 and 2024 continue to drive the Exchange’s direct written premium growth. Direct and assumed written premiums grew by nearly 14 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the prior year. The rate impact is evidenced in the increase in our average premium per policy of 13.2%. Now that our rates are at more adequate levels, we’re seeing the impact of the increased competitiveness of those rates. Policies in force grew 3.2% in the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four, which is lower than 4.8% for the total year 2024, but more in line with growth experienced prior to pandemic related disruption.

Our policy retention ratio decreased slightly to 89.9%. The significant rate actions I’ve mentioned were the primary lever we were pulling on to improve the profitability of the exchange. We continue to see improvements in our non catastrophe loss ratio for the exchange. However, in March 2025, we experienced a significant catastrophe loss that contributed 13 points to the exchange’s total first quarter catastrophe losses of over 16 points. This drove the increase in our first quarter combined ratio.

The Exchange’s first quarter combined ratio was 108.1, an increase over 106% in the first quarter of twenty twenty four. As you can see in the investor supplement that was published yesterday on our website, if we excluded catastrophe losses as well as the effects of prior accident year reserve development, our direct current year non catastrophe loss ratio would have been 95.4% in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. The exchange’s underwriting losses in the first quarter were partially offset by investment returns, which resulted in a slight decrease in policyholder surplus from 9,300,000,000 at December of twenty twenty four to $9,200,000,000 at March 2025. Shifting to the results for Indemnity, net income was $138,400,000 or $2.65 per diluted share in the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to $124,600,000 or $2.38 per diluted share in the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Operating income increased 9% to more than $151,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Management fee revenue from policy issuance and renewal services increased over 13% to $755,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the prior year. The total cost of operations from policy issuance and renewal services increased $77,000,000 or about 14% for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the same period in 2024. Our largest expense, our commissions, grew $61,000,000 or about 16% for the first quarter. This growth was driven by the increase in direct written premiums of the exchange and to a lesser extent agent incentive compensation. Non commission expenses for the first quarter grew just over $16,000,000 or about 9%.

The biggest driver of this growth was an $11,000,000 increase in our technology investments due to higher hardware, software, and personnel costs, as well as a decrease in the amount of professional fees capitalized. We also saw an increase in underwriting and policy processing costs of 3,000,000 and customer service costs of about $2,000,000 Personnel cost increases across all expense categories were impacted by increased compensation in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, including higher estimates for incentive plan awards compared to 2024. When looking at our investment operations, it’s important to note that during periods of heightened market uncertainty, we have always maintained a long term perspective and a focus on our strategic objectives for the Erie Insurance Group portfolios. Investment income in the first quarter of twenty twenty five was $19,500,000 compared to $15,000,000 in the same period of 2024, driven by growth in our net investment income of $4,000,000 As always, we take a measured approach to capital management and we maintain a strong balance sheet. And for the first three months of twenty twenty five, our financial performance has enabled us to pay our shareholders almost $64,000,000 in dividends.

With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Tim. Tim?

Tim Macastro, President and Chief Executive Officer, Erie Indemnity Company: Thanks Julie. The entire insurance industry is feeling the effects of external pressures related to economic instability, the dynamic political environment, and an increase in severe weather. The results Julie just reported however confirm that we’re responding appropriately and effectively setting the stage to address the immediate challenges ahead and to build long term sustainability for both the company and for our agents. A key part of our response involves technology. In past calls I’ve talked about our progress in modernizing our legacy platforms.

One of the more significant achievements over the past quarter was the continued rollout of Business Auto two point zero. After a pilot in Indiana in the second half of last year the product has been released to Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois and Tennessee in late January. Business Auto two point zero supports our refreshed and enhanced Business Auto product with an improved quoting and processing experience and the ability to have vehicles from multiple states on one policy. It also provides access to online account for customers and features an auto pay option. Roll out to the remainder of our footprint is expected to continue through the third quarter.

Our modernization efforts are wide scale and ongoing so you can be sure to hear more updates on our progress in upcoming calls. As Julie detailed earlier, we’ve experienced some very costly claims already this year. The losses incurred from the severe storms throughout our footprint in March have even surpassed those of Hurricane Helene, a September storm that flooded the Southeast causing widespread destruction and fatalities. Catastrophes like these are devastating to our customers and damaging to our profitability, but it’s in these circumstances that our biggest strength exceptional service really shines through. When I reflect on where we are today celebrating one hundred years in business I’m proud that we have kept our promise of service at the forefront of everything we do and I’m excited to begin our second century of service and success.

Thank you all for joining us today and for your continued interest in the Erie.

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