Earnings call transcript: Global Indemnity beats Q3 2025 forecasts

Global Indemnity Group reported its Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations with an EPS of $0.86 against a forecast of $0.75, marking a 14.67% surprise. The company also reported revenue of $114.19 million. Following the announcement, Global Indemnity’s stock rose by 1.74%, reflecting investor optimism about the company’s performance and outlook.

Key Takeaways

• Global Indemnity exceeded earnings expectations with a significant EPS surprise.
• The stock price saw a 1.74% increase post-announcement.
• The company anticipates double-digit premium growth in 2026.
• Operating income and underwriting income showed notable improvements.
• Market competition is expected to increase in the coming years.

Company Performance

Global Indemnity demonstrated robust performance in Q3 2025, with a strong EPS beat and revenue of $114.19 million. The company’s operating income increased by 19% year-over-year, and underwriting income improved by 54%. Despite a slight decline in net income compared to the previous year, the company showed resilience and growth in key areas.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $114.19 million
• Earnings per share: $0.86, a 14.67% surprise over the forecast
• Operating income: $15.7 million, up 19% year-over-year
• Underwriting income: $10.2 million, a 54% increase
• Investment income: $17.9 million, up 9%

Earnings vs. Forecast

Global Indemnity’s actual EPS of $0.86 exceeded the forecasted $0.75 by 14.67%. This marks a significant earnings beat, highlighting the company’s strong financial performance this quarter.

Market Reaction

The stock price increased by 1.74% following the earnings announcement, reflecting positive investor sentiment. The stock remains below its 52-week high, suggesting potential for further growth as the company continues to perform well.

Outlook & Guidance

Global Indemnity is optimistic about its future, expecting double-digit premium growth in 2026. The company plans to continue investing in growth opportunities and anticipates improved underwriting performance in Q4 2025. Strategic initiatives, including the revamping of technology infrastructure and the introduction of new products, are expected to drive future growth.

Executive Commentary

"Our accident year combined ratio of 90.4% generated an underwriting profit of $10.2 million," said Jay Brown, CEO. He emphasized the company’s optimism, stating, "We’re very optimistic about what we have on the books and what we’re earning."

Risks and Challenges

• Competitive pressures in the insurance market are expected to intensify.
• A $3.4 million fair value decline in the investment portfolio could pose challenges.
• The company must navigate increasing market competition in 2026-2027.

Q&A

During the Q&A session, analysts inquired about the $3.4 million decline in the investment portfolio’s fair value. The company explained its restructuring efforts and emphasized its focus on growth opportunities over stock repurchases.

Full transcript - Global Indemnity PLC (GBLI) Q3 2025:

Kelvin, Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Kelvin and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Global Indemnity Group Q3 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Nathaniel DeRose, Senior Vice President and Senior Counsel.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Please go ahead.

Nathaniel DeRose, Senior Vice President and Senior Counsel, Global Indemnity Group: Thank you, operator. Before we begin today, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words including, without limitation, beliefs, expectations, or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. We do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer of Global Indemnity Group.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Thank you. Nathaniel, good morning and thank you for joining us for the Global Indemnity Group third quarter results conference call. With me today, in addition to Nathaniel, are Evan Kasowitz, President of Belmont Holdings, Praveen Reddy, President and CEO of Catalyx Holdings, and Brian Riley, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our usual format, I will first share overview comments on my assessments of this quarter’s results. I will also offer some thoughts on our current positioning as a company as I conclude my third year as CEO. Our CFO Brian Riley will present the highlights of our financial and operational results. After Brian’s remarks, we look forward to your questions. This quarter’s results continue the underlying positive insurance, operating, and investment trends that we have seen over the last several quarters.

Our accident year combined ratio of 90.4%—I’m going to say it twice, 90.4%—generated an underwriting profit of $10.2 million, a very nice increase over the 93.5% we recorded last year. This was our best quarterly accident year combined ratio in the past several years, reflecting underlying strong property results for both catastrophic losses and non-cat losses. Our short duration investment portfolio delivered acceptable net investment income results at $17.9 million, a 9% increase from the prior year period. However, we did see a modest short-term mark to market loss this quarter as we have started to shift away from a portfolio consisting substantially of shorter term fixed income investments. The overall extremely positive insurance and investment results were slightly offset by the planned higher corporate expenses as we continue to invest in our agency and insurance services segment.

Brian will provide some details on the areas where corporate expenses are increasing, but as we’ve noted earlier in the year, these investments are intended to help drive the long-term anticipated growth. Overall, the resulting net income of $12.5 million remains consistent with the results from last year, and underlying operating income increased by 19% against last year. A nice year-over-year change. Moving from the bottom line to the top line for insurance operations, excluding terminated products, gross premium grew 13% over the third quarter of 2024. As noted in our results release, we again saw very solid sustainable growth in vacant express, collectibles, wholesale, commercial, and assumed reinsurance. Premium rate changes on our direct book are still running in the mid single digits, which, coupled with exposure changes, are tracking close to our current expectations for loss trends.

That said, it is clear that although the market remains favorable for our current products, competition is definitely increasing. Turning from the quarterly financials, our efforts under our Project Kaleidoscope team to revamp our technology and data infrastructure, information management, and policy issuance systems continues to be on track. Our current plans are to have all of our existing products on the new system architecture in 2026, which has been designed to be compatible with our expanding investments in AI technology. Our progress over the past three years has been significant as we initially refocused our business on sectors where we had long-term success and adjusted our staff accordingly to serve that business. This is evident in the steady improvement of our accident year results over the three years and continued double-digit growth in our ongoing businesses.

Having built a strong foundation, we launched a new legal and organizational structure at the beginning of the year. Following the addition of Praveen Reddy in March, we have started to augment our existing underwriting and distribution human capital resources with additional staffing in key underwriting and finance positions. As we have previously discussed, our focus remains on executing our strategy to achieve substantial scale in our agency and insurance services segment, including through organic growth, new product launches, service enhancements, and strategic acquisitions. We also recently announced a rebranding of this group to Catalyx. Along these lines, we purchased IATA last month, a high-tech AI-enabled digital distribution marketplace and agency operations for commercial insurance. We believe this acquisition directly supports our strategy to deliver faster, smarter distribution solutions for specialty insurance and new products.

We recognize it will take a while for the market to properly value Global Indemnity Group in our new configuration with appropriate metrics for the different segments as they grow at different rates. To address this, we have added external resources at KCSA to ensure our company’s story is properly communicated to our investors. I should also note that our board has made the decision to move our stock listing to the NASDAQ Exchange, which is viewed as more appropriate for a company like ours embarking on a new chapter in its history. I firmly believe that our existing core business, coupled with our reorganized structure and strategic efforts, will yield substantial value to our owners in the next few years. At this point, I will turn it over to Brian.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Thank you Jay. Starting with one of our most important metrics, book value per share increased from $48.35 at June 30 to $48.88 at September 30, including dividends paid of $0.35 per share. Return to shareholders was 1.8% for the third quarter of 2025. Net income was $12.5 million for the third quarter, compared to $12.8 million for that same period last year. As Jay mentioned, operating income, which excludes after-tax impact of unrealized losses on equity securities, was $15.7 million for the third quarter, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Key drivers came from both underwriting income and investment income. Underwriting income improved 54% to $10.2 million in 3Q25, compared to $6.6 million for the same period last year. Investment income improved by 9% to $17.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $16.5 million in the same period last year.

This improvement was partially offset by an increase in corporate expenses to $7.8 million in the third quarter, compared to $5.9 million for the same period last year, resulting from professional fees related to the build out of personnel at Catalyx and transaction costs related to the acquisition of IATA. As Jay mentioned, our corporate expenses will likely remain higher than previous years as we prospect new business opportunities at Catalyx and Belmont Holdings. Let me add a little color on underwriting income and investments, starting with underwriting income. Current accident year underwriting income improved by $3.6 million overall, driven by an improvement in the combined ratio of 3.1 points to 90.4. This consisted of a 4 point improvement on the loss ratio to 50.1, driven by both CAT and non-CAT performance. This is partially offset by an increase in the expense ratio of 1.7 points.

Expenses remain elevated as we add personnel, build out Catalyx, and complete the runoff of our non-core businesses. Turning to premiums, consolidated gross written premiums increased 9% to $108.4 million in 3Q25 compared to $99.8 million in the same period last year. As Jay mentioned, excluding terminated products, gross written premiums increased 13% to $108.5 million compared to $96.4 million for the same period last year. Let me add a little color at the divisional level. Our wholesale commercial business, Penn-America Underwriters, which focuses on Main Street small business, grew 10% to $67.9 million compared to $61.9 million in the same period last year and includes an average rate increase of 4%. In aggregate, vacant express and collectibles grew 5% to $16.4 million in the third quarter compared to $15.7 million in the same period last year, driven by rate and growth in agency appointments.

Our assumed reinsurance gross premiums, excluding non-core business, grew 58% to $15.6 million resulting from seven new treaties we added during 2024 and five new treaties added in 2025, increasing our in-force treaties to 16 at September 30. Specialty products, excluding the terminated products, remained flat at $8.6 million. As for investments, total investment return was $14.5 million for 3Q25 with an annualized return of 4%, consisting of $17.9 million of investment income and a $3.4 million decline in fair value on the portfolio. Investment income on our fixed income portfolio was $15.2 million for the quarter compared to $15.8 million for the same period last year. Current book yield on the fixed income portfolio is 4.5% with a duration of 1.1 years at September 30 compared to December 31, 2024 of 4.4% with a duration of 0.8 years.

The average credit quality of the fixed income portfolio remains at AA-. Our outlook for 2025 is very positive. Our underwriting income, excluding the impact of California wildfires in the first quarter, of $21.2 million for the first nine months of 2025 compares to $15.3 million for the same period last year. Our underwriting performance for 4Q25 is expected to improve compared to the same period in 2024. We continue to expect premium growth of 10% for the full year. Booked reserves remain solidly above our current actuarial indications. We believe the premium pricing is continuing to track with loss inflation. Discretionary capital, which we consider the amount of consolidated equity in excess of that required to maintain the strongest levels with our rating agencies, is $273 million at September 30. Lastly, our investment portfolio remains well positioned to invest in longer duration maturities at higher yields. Thank you.

We will now take your questions.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. I would like to remind everyone to ask a question. Please press the star button followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one again. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Ross Haberman of RLH Investments. Please go ahead.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Morning gentlemen. Nice quarter. Could you go back to the investment losses, that $4 million you took in the quarter, and sort of give us an explanation of why you decided to take, realize the loss, and will there be similar type of losses in the next couple quarters as you say as you restructure and or sell some of your bond portfolio? Thank you. Yeah. Ross, to be clear, the loss was not realized in the form of a sale. It’s a fair value decline on $25 million in equities that we invest in the third quarter. Review it as short term.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: Okay.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: I think you said you’re going to restructure investment portfolio. Could you elaborate on that a little bit and the reason why? Yeah, I mean so far this year we’ve deployed $200 million of our short term investments into corporates and mortgage backed securities. Right now we’re at approximately 4% of the portfolio is short term. We’re evaluating how to invest over the next quarter and or next five quarters those short term investments. I’m sorry, one clarification. What percentage of your investment portfolio is equities as opposed to bonds? Equities, about 2%. Thank you very much.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Tom Kerr, Zacks Research. Please go ahead.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Good morning, guys.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: You mentioned competition is increasing.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Can you give us any more color on that?

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Where it’s happening and why it’s happening now? For our current product lines, which are basically focused on small commercial or very small personal collections, etc., in a collectibles business or vacant express, we don’t see the kind of competition you’d see in larger premium where it starts earlier. We’re just beginning to see some of that pressure emerge as we’re selling new products to new customers. It’s a little bit more competitive than last year. I think the important thing is at this point in time for the business we’re writing, we’re still achieving the same kind of levels that our current book is priced at. We’re very optimistic about what we have on the books and what we’re earning. We do see that there’s going to be pressure as we move into 2026 and 2027.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Okay. Speaking of 2026, do we still handle that it’s going to be double digit premium growth or any comment looking forward on that?

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: I am very optimistic. It’ll be at least double-digit.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Okay.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: It’s not going to be, it’s not going to be triple digit. I’m only kidding. We’re sticking with our approach, which expects our baseline of existing products will continue to grow at 10%. However, we will see an increase in overall growth rates as we start to add new products and new operations in Catalyx.

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Got it. Last question. Did you give a discretionary capital number? Sorry if I missed that. $273 million. All right. That’s up from $260 million. Got it. All right, thanks. That’s all I’ve got for now.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: We will now move to our web questions. Your next question comes from Michael O’Brien. One great way to get your message out and show that you believe there is real value in your stock would be to implement and execute on a buyback program. Any thoughts?

Brian Riley, Chief Financial Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Sure.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: I think we’ve been pretty consistent for the last two or three quarters that given the amount of money we’re investing to restructure our organization, the reorganization we began to begin the year, we think we’re going to have a significant amount of growth going into 2026 and 2027. As such, the board has made the decision, at least in the short term, meaning the next three, four, or five quarters, that we’re going to deploy our capital into those growth opportunities rather than buy back stock. It’s obviously a question that’s been asked every quarter and we have not changed our position going forward.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: There are no further questions at this time. With that, I will turn the call back over to Nathaniel DeRose for closing remarks.

Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Global Indemnity Group: Please go ahead with that.

Nathaniel DeRose, Senior Vice President and Senior Counsel, Global Indemnity Group: We thank you all for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you about our year end results at that time. Thank you.

Kelvin, Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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